No Commonality in Liquidity on Small Emerging Markets? Evidence from the Central and Eastern European Stock Exchanges
Abstract
EconStor is a publication server for scholarly economic literature, provided as a non-commercial public service by the ZBW.
Full text
Olbrys, Joanna Article No Commonality in Liquidity on Small Emerging Markets? Evidence from the Central and Eastern European Stock Exchanges Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe Provided in Cooperation with: Institute of Economics, University of Łódź Suggested Citation: Olbrys, Joanna (2020) : No Commonality in Liquidity on Small Emerging Markets? Evidence from the Central and Eastern European Stock Exchanges, Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, ISSN 2082-6737, Łodz University Press, Łodz, Vol. 23, Iss. 3, pp. 91-109, https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.23.22 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/259243 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe Volume 23, Number 3, 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.23.22 Joanna Olbryś No Commonality in Liquidity on Small Emerging Markets? Evidence from the Central and Eastern European Stock Exchanges1 Joanna Olbryś Ph.D., Associate Professor, Bialystok University of Technology Faculty of Computer Science, Department of Theoretical Computer Scnience Bialystok, Poland, e-mail: [email protected] Abstract The goal of this comparative research is to investigate intra-market commonality in liquidity on six small emerging Central and Eastern European (CEE) stock exchanges – in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. The CEE post-communist countries can be analyzed together as they are geographically close, and the stock markets are relatively similar. Three measures based on daily data are utilized as liquidity/ illiquidity proxies: (1) a modified version of the Amihud (2002) measure, (2) the percentage relative spread, and (3) the Corwin-Schultz (2012) high-low two-day spread estimator. The OLS regression with the HAC covariance matrix estimation and the GARCH-type models are employed to explore the patterns of market-wide commonality in liquidity on the CEE stock exchanges. The main value-added comes from the methodology and the novel empirical findings. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that investigates commonality in liquidity in the aforementioned group of countries using three liquidity proxies and the time rolling-window approach to provide robustness tests. The regressions reveal no pronounced evidence of co-movements in liquidity within the CEE markets, taken separately. What is important, the empirical results are homogeneous for all investigated markets. Therefore, no reason has been found to reject the research hypothesis that there is no commonality in liquidity on each individual market. This paper aspires to fill the gap in the knowledge of liquidity patterns on the CEE emerging markets. Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe, commonality in liquidity, GARCH, OLS-HAC, time rolling-window, daily data JEL: C32, C58, G12, G15, O52 1 This research was supported by grant No. 2016/21/B/HS4/02004 from the National Science Centre, Poland.
92 Joanna Olbryś Introduction According tothe literature, the existence ofcommonality inliquidity indicates that individual company liquidity issensitive tochanges inaggregate stock market liquidity. Itis well documented that assessing co-movements inliquidity isimportant for anumber ofreasons. There are some crucial topics that are especially frequently investigated inthis context, including the consideration ofcommonality inliquidity innon-classical asset pricing models since itcould represent asource ofnon-diversifiable risk, the relationship between shareholders structure and individual firm liquidity, the influence ofcommonality inliquidity oninvestment strategies, and the importance ofcommonality inliquidity toregulators and central bankers (Olbryś 2019a, p.252). Narayan etal. (2015) emphasize that empirical evidence ofcommon liquidity movements would assist regulators inimproving stock market design. Bekaert etal. (2007) pointed out that liquidity ismore critical for emerging than developed markets. The six small Central and Eastern European (CEE) stock exchanges are emerging markets, but four ofthem (Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia) are, infact, frontier markets (Kiviaho etal.2014). Therefore, one might expect them tobe very sensitive tochanges inliquidity. Moreover, Brockman etal. (2009) examined the impact ofdomestic macroeconomic announcements oncommonality inliquidity for individual stock exchanges, and their results revealed that the announcement effects are stronger for emerging markets asagroup than for developed markets. The small post-communist CEE stock exchanges can beanalyzed asagroup ofmarkets because they are geographically close and relatively similar. Taking the above into consideration, one might expect that commonality inliquidity exists onthese markets. Unfortunately, alarge number ofcompanies listed onthe CEE exchanges reveal asubstantial non-trading problem (Olbryś 2018). The non-trading effect means there isalack oftransactions over aparticular period when anexchange isopen for trading, with illiquidity asits consequence. Therefore, inthe current paper, the research hypothesis that there isno commonality inliquidity oneach individual CEE stock market istested. The goal ofthis comparative research isto thoroughly investigate intra-market co-movements inliquidity onsix small CEE stock markets – inthe Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. The Polish stock exchange isnot included inthis study because itis large compared tothe other CEE stock exchanges inthe region. However, intra-market commonality inliquidity onthe Warsaw Stock Exchange has recently been quite deeply explored inthe papers (e.g., Olbryś 2019a; Będowska-Sójka 2019). The empirical results revealed rather weak evidence ofco-movements inliquidity onthe WSE, regardless ofthe choice ofliquidity proxy. Itis worth noting that Olbryś (2018) conducted apreliminary study ofcommonality inliquidity onthe small CEE exchanges inthe context ofthe non-trading problem. Amodified version ofthe Amihud (2002) measure was used asadaily liquidity proxy inthe period from January 2, 2012, toDecember 30, 2016. The classical market model
93 No Commonality in Liquidity on Small Emerging Markets… ofliquidity proposed byChordia etal. (2000) was employed. The empirical results revealed noevidence ofcommonality inliquidity onany ofthe investigated CEE stock markets. Toconfirm this phenomenon, inthe current research, the daily percentage relative spread and Corwin and Schultz’s (2012) high-low spread estimator are utilized asadditional liquidity proxies. The common feature ofthe measures used inthe study isthat they are all based ondaily data and are calculated indaily frequency. Moreover, the time rolling-window approach isused totest the stability ofthe empirical findings indifferent sub-periods. Following Olbryś (2018), the classical market model ofliquidity isutilized inthis study. The OLS regression with the HAC covariance matrix estimation (Newey, West 1987) and the GARCH-type models (ifnecessary, asthe OLS-HAC may not fully accommodate the ARCH effect) are employed toinfer the patterns ofcommonality inliquidity. The main contribution ofthis research lies inits thorough assessment ofcommonality inliquidity onsix small CEE stock exchanges. The value-added derives from the methodology and the novel empirical findings. Tothe best ofthe author’s knowledge, this isthe first study that investigates commonality inliquidity inthe aforementioned group ofcountries using three liquidity proxies and the time rolling-window approach toprovide robustness tests. The regressions reveal nopronounced evidence ofcommonality inliquidity onthe CEE stock markets, taken separately. Importantly, the empirical findings are homogeneous for all investigated markets. Itmeans that individual firm liquidity isnot significantly influenced byco-movements inthe liquidity ofall other firms traded onthe same exchange. The findings fill the gap inthe knowledge ofcommonality inliquidity onemerging and frontier stock markets. According tothe literature, the results for the CEE stock exchanges reported inthis paper substantially differ from findings that have been obtained for developed markets around the world. The remainder ofthe study isorganized asfollows. Section 2 provides abrief literature review ofcommonality inliquidity onemerging markets. Section 3 specifies the methodological background concerning the measurement ofcommonality inliquidity. Section 4 describes the data and discusses the empirical results for the six stock exchanges. The paper issummarized inthe presentation ofconclusions, implications for practice, aswell aslimitations and suggestions for further research. Commonality in liquidity on emerging markets The first empirical study ofcommonality inliquidity was conducted byChordia etal. (2000). Beginning with this seminal paper, identifying commonality inliquidity emerged asafast-growing strand ofthe literature onliquidity, especially for the U.S.stock market (e.g., Chordia etal.2000; Kamara etal.2008; Kang, Zhang 2013; Korajczyk, Sadka 2008). Commonality inliquidity has also been explored for other individual emerging and developed equity markets inthe world. Ingeneral, the em-
94 Joanna Olbryś pirical results from various markets are ambiguous. The majority ofresearchers suggest that market structure and trading mechanisms play important roles indifferent effects ofcommonality inliquidity for the observed markets. Moreover, the non-trading problem may substantially affect the findings ofliquidity co-movements onsmall emerging stock exchanges. This isbecause infrequently traded stocks cannot provide reliable information. Kearney (2012) pointed out that although the term “emerging market” isin common usage, there isno agreement oneither the theoretical oroperational definition ofwhat itconstitutes, and the classification ofcountries asemerging markets isconsequently somewhat arbitrary. Asthis research aspires todraw attention toward emerging economies, the analysis ofprevious literature focuses onstudies that relate mostly toemerging stock exchanges. However, the majority ofpapers concern Asian emerging markets, which, ingeneral, are not comparable toEuropean small stock exchanges. For example, Pukthuanthong-Leand Visaltanachoti (2009) assessed the Stock Exchange inThailand, and they confirmed market-wide commonality inliquidity onthis market. Narayan etal. (2015) found strong support for commonality inliquidity onthe Chinese stock exchanges inShanghai and Shenzhen. Syamala etal. (2017) analyzed the Indian stock market, and presented evidence for both supply-side and demand-side factors that contribute toliquidity commonality. Wang (2013) examined the impact ofaset ofcommon factors onliquidity variations oneight emerging equity markets inAsia, namely China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. Meanwhile, Sensoy (2016) investigated the influence ofspecific macro-announcements onliquidity commonality inTurkey. Alimited number ofstudies investigate commonality inliquidity for agroup ofequity markets, with Central and Eastern European economies receiving particularly little attention. For example, Brockman etal. (2009) utilized the methodology ofChordia etal. (2000) on47 stock markets from different contingent-based regions, but their database included only two ofthe CEE countries, namely Poland and Hungary. Karolyi etal. (2012) analyzed cross-country commonality inliquidity using daily data for stocks from 40 developed and emerging markets, but their database contained only the Polish stock exchange. Bai and Qin (2015) investigated commonality inliquidity in18 emerging countries, but, aswith Karolyi etal., only Poland was included intheir research. Importantly, the authors pointed out that liquidity co-movements across emerging stock exchanges have apronounced geographic component. This evidence might becrucial inthe case ofCEE countries that are geographically close. Olbryś (2019b) assessed market-wide commonality inliquidity onthe CEE-3 stock exchanges inPoland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. The empirical findings confirmed weak evidence ofco-movements inliquidity onthe analyzed markets, considered separately. None ofthe aforementioned studies concerns the whole group ofthe CEE countries. Table 1 includes brief information onthe six small stock markets that are investigated inthis research, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.
95 Table 1. The six small Central and Eastern European stock markets highlights Country Stock exchange Index Stock market established Market Cap., EUR billion, Dec 2016 Czech Republic Prague Stock Exchange (PSE) PX 1993 22.19 Hungary Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE) BUX 1991 21.27 Slovakia Bratislava Stock Exchange (BSSE) SAX 1993 5.28 Lithuania NASDAQ Vilnius OMXV 1993 3.50 Estonia NASDAQ Tallinn OMXT 1995 2.29 Latvia NASDAQ Riga OMXR 1995 0.80 Source: National stock exchange websites. Methodology Inthis section, the methodological background concerning the measurement ofcommonality inliquidity ispresented. Selected liquidity/illiquidity proxies derived from daily data and econometric methods applied inthe study are described indetail. Liquidity proxies derived from daily data Aninvestigation ofliquidity iscomplicated byvarious obstacles. Alack ofaccess tointraday data onmost emerging stock markets might beconsidered one such inconvenience, and itis aproblem that iswidely known and amply reported inthe literature (e.g., Bekaert etal.2007; Olbryś 2014). High-frequency data are not freely available for the analyzed CEE stock exchanges. Therefore, inthis study, three liquidity proxies approximated from daily data are utilized tocapture various sources ofmarket liquidity, which is, infact, alatent variable. Table 2 presents the formulas ofthese proxies. Table 2. Definition of daily liquidity/illiquidity proxies utilized in the study Liquidity proxy Definition 1 The modified version of the Amihud (2002) measure t MAmih 1 , 0 0, 0 t t tt t r log whenV MAmih V whenV ìæö ï÷ ïç÷ +¹ ïç÷ ïç÷ ç =íèø ï ï ï= ï î 2 The percentage relative spread %t RS ( ) 200 % HL tt tHL tt PP RS PP ×- =+ No Commonality in Liquidity on Small Emerging Markets…
96 Liquidity proxy Definition 3 The Corwin-Schultz (2012) high-low two-day spread estimator t S ( ) 21 1 t e Se a a - =+ Where: t r isthe simple rate ofreturn ofstock onday t, t V isthe trading volume ofstock onday t, H t P, L t Pare the high and low prices ofstock onday t, respectively, 2 3 22 3 22 Bbg a- =- -- isthe main parameter inthe formula for the t S estimator, and 2 2 1 1 H H t t LL tt P P ln ln PP b+ + éù éù æö æö ÷ ÷ç çêú êú ÷ ÷ =+ ç ç÷ ÷êú ç êú ç÷ ÷ çç èø èø êú êú ëû ëû , ( ) ( ) 2 1 1 max , max , HH tt LL tt PP ln PP g+ + éù æö ÷ ç êú ÷ ç =÷ êú ç÷ ç÷ êú ÷ ç èø ëû . Source: author’s own elaboration based on Karolyi et al. 2012; Olbrys, Mursztyn 2018; Olbryś 2019a; and Corwin, Schultz 2012. Table 2 requires some comments. The value ofthe daily proxy t MAmih isdefined tobe equal tozero when the total daily volume isequal tozero. Inthe literature, the Amihud measure isusually calculated for astock for each month (e.g., Fong etal.2017; Olbryś 2014). However, inthis study, daily time series ofthe modified Amihud proxy are estimated. The percentage relative spread %t RS isameasure ofilliquidity because ahigh value ofthis indicator denotes low liquidity while asmall value ofthe %t RS indicates high liquidity. The t S estimator isquite easy tocompute asit requires only the high and low prices from two consecutive days, t and 1t+ . Itis calculated for astock oneach trading day. However, Corwin and Schultz (2012) emphasize that infrequent trading isacrucial problem ifall trades occur atthe same price, and then HL tt PP= . Infact, the t S measures illiquidity, sousually the higher are the values ofthis indicator, the lower liquidity isobserved onagiven day. Assessing commonality in liquidity Toinvestigate commonality inliquidity, the classical market model ofliquidity proposed byChordia etal. (2000) isthe most frequently employed model inthe literature. Inthis research, amodified version ofthis model, including the Dimson (1979) correction for daily data, isapplied: , ,1,1,0,,1,1, , it i i Mt i Mt i Mt it DL DL DL DLab b b e -- ++ =+ × + × + × + (1) Tabel 2. (continued) Joanna Olbryś
97 No Commonality in Liquidity on Small Emerging Markets… where , it DL for stock i isthe change inliquidity variable L from trading day 1ttot, i.e., 1 1 tt t t LL DL L - - - =. The Dimson correction allows usto mitigate the non-synchronous trading problem. Inthis procedure, the ,1Mt DL - , ,Mt DL , and ,1Mt DL + variables are included inthe model equation. These variables are the lagged, concurrent, and leading changes isacross-sectional average ofthe liquidity variable L , respectively. Itis crucial that incomputing the ‘market’ liquidity proxy M L, stock i isexcluded and the measure M L. isestimated asthe equally-weighted average liquidity for the remaining stocks, for each individual stock market, sothe explanatory variables inthe model (1) are slightly different for each stock regression (Olbryś 2019a, p.262). Positive and statistically significant slope coefficients ,0i b, ,1i b-, and ,1i b+ are especially desired since they indicate commonality inliquidity. Basically, they confirm liquidity co-movements inthe same direction (e.g., Brockman etal.2009; Olbryś 2018; 2019a; 2019b). Model (1) isinitially estimated for each stock bythe OLS regression with the robust HAC estimates (Newey, West 1987), but the OLS-HAC may not fully correct for the influence problems introduced bythe ARCH effect. Insuch cases, estimating model(1) asaGARCH-type model ismore appropriate. Engle’s (1982) test isemployed toinfer the ARCH effect. The GARCH(p, q) model isdefined byEq. (2): ( ) , ,1,1,0,,1,1, , , i,t , 2 i,t ,0 , , , i,t-l 11 , h , ~ 0,1 , h h, it i i Mt i Mt i Mt it it it it qp i ik it k il kl DL DL DL DL z zN aa b ab b b e e e -- ++ - == =+ × + × + × + = =+ + åå (2) where ,0 , , 0, 0, 1, , , 0, 0, , , , 0. i ik il a a k qq b l pp> ³ = ¼ > ³ =¼ ³ The ,it e isthe innovation inalinear regression with ( ) 2 Ves= , while ,it h isthe variance function. The rest ofthe notation isthe same asin Eq. (1) (see for example Olbryś 2018; 2019a; 2019b). Data description and empirical results on the CEE stock exchanges Inthe present study, daily data for stock exchanges from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia, are utilized. Data comes from Bloomberg under alicense agreement between Bloomberg and Bialystok University ofTechnology (grant No.2016/21/B/HS4)2. The database contains the opening, high, low, and 2The database was prepared specifically for the grant and it was purchased from Bloomberg in January 2017. Therefore, to avoid internal inconsistency of the research, all empirical analyses concerning various aspects of liquidity for the six stock markets were conducted for the same period from January 2012 to December 2016 (e.g., Olbryś 2018; 2020).
98 Joanna Olbryś closing prices, aswell asthe volume for each equity over each trading day, from January2, 2012, toDecember 30, 2016. The database holds 1252 (for the PSE), 1240 (for the BSE), 1244 (for the BSSE), 1245 (for the NASDAQ Vilnius), 1251 (for the NASDAQ Tallinn), and 1242 (for the NASDAQ Riga) trading days, respectively. The Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) isnot included inthe study because itis large compared tothe other CEE stock markets. For comparison, atthe end of2016, the total number oflisted companies was 881 (WSE), 23 (PSE), 41 (BSE), 71 (BSSE), 34 (NASDAQ Vilnius), 17(NASDAQ Tallinn), and 32 (NASDAQ Riga) (Olbryś 2018, p.72). Itis widely known that alot ofequities listed onemerging stock markets display asubstantial non-trading problem. Toavoid this problem, the companies that exhibited anextraordinarily high number ofnon-traded days within the whole sample period (precisely, above 373 zeros indaily volume, which constituted about 30%ofall trading days), were excluded from the data set. Finally, the database contained 10(Prague), 18(Budapest), 3 (Bratislava), 15 (Vilnius), 12 (Tallinn), and 7 (Riga) companies (65firms intotal) (Olbryś 2018, p.73). Testing for stock exchange-level commonality in liquidity Inthe first step, using the ADF-GLS test (Elliott etal.1996) orADF test (Dickey, Fuller 1981), Itested whether the daily time series are stationary. Itwas proved that the unitroot hypothesis can berejected atthe 5% significance level for all time series utilized inthe study. Inorder toreduce the effects ofpossibly spurious outliers, the data was ‘winsorized’ bythe 1st and 99th percentiles for each time series (e.g., Korajczyk, Sadka 2008; Kamara etal.2008). Inthe second step, the OLS-HAC regression was employed toestimate the parameters ofmodel (1). Intotal, 195 models for the six stock markets and three liquidity proxies (MAmiht, %RSt, and St) were estimated, comprising 30 (Prague), 54(Budapest), 9 (Bratislava), 45 (Vilnius), 36 (Tallinn), and 21 (Riga). For each stock, the daily proportional changes inindividual stock liquidity variables were regressed intime-series onthe changes ofan equally weighted cross-sectional average ofthe liquidity variable for all stocks inthe sample, excluding the dependent variable stock (Olbryś 2019a, p.264). The empirical results showed that the OLS-HAC regressions proved tobe appropriate for 29 models (Prague), 42 models (Budapest), 8 models (Bratislava), 35 models (Vilnius), 30 models (Tallinn), and 20 models (Riga) because the ARCH effect did not appear. Only for 31 models was the ARCH effect inthe residuals detected. Therefore, for those companies, the GARCH(p, q), p, q=1,2 models (2) were estimated. The number oflags p, q, was selected onthe basis ofthe AIC and SC information criteria. The cross-sectional estimation results ofmodels (1) and (2) are presented inTable3. This table contains the number ofpositive significant, positive insignificant, negative significant, and negative insignificant coefficients (atthe 10% significance level), for each stock exchange and each liquidity proxy, separately.
105 No Commonality in Liquidity on Small Emerging Markets… Table 6. The rolling-window findings of testing for stock exchange-level commonality in liquidity on six small CEE stock markets (the St proxy) Coefficient The proportion of positive/negative and statistically significant slope coefficients Window 1 Window 2 Window 3 Prague (10 models) Concurrent β i,0 2/2 1/0 0/0 Lag β i,–1 1/0 1/0 0/0 Lead β i,+1 0/0 0/0 1/2 Budapest (18 models) Concurrent β i,0 3/2 3/2 1/1 Lag β i,–1 1/2 1/1 1/0 Lead β i,+1 0/1 0/2 0/2 Bratislava (3 models) Concurrent β i,0 0/0 0/0 0/2 Lag β i,–1 1/0 0/0 0/0 Lead β i,+1 1/0 2/0 0/1 Vilnius (15 models) Concurrent β i,0 0/0 0/0 0/1 Lag β i,–1 3/0 4/1 3/0 Lead β i,+1 0/0 2/0 3/0 Tallinn (12 models) Concurrent β i,0 0/0 0/1 0/1 Lag β i,–1 0/1 0/0 0/0 Lead β i,+1 1/0 2/0 1/0 Riga (7 models) Concurrent β i,0 1/0 1/0 1/0 Lag β i,–1 0/0 0/0 2/0 Lead β i,+1 0/1 0/1 0/0 Notation as in Table 4. Source: author’s own calculations with the use of STATA 14. Discussion and conclusions The purpose ofthis comparative study was toassess market-wide commonality inliquidity onsix emerging Central and Eastern European stock exchanges, inthe Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. The modified version ofthe Amihud proxy, the percentage relative spread bid/ask, and the Corwin-Schultz
106 Joanna Olbryś high-low two-day spread estimator were utilized asdaily liquidity/illiquidity measures for stocks. The OLS regression with the HAC covariance matrix estimation and the GARCH-type models were employed toinfer the patterns ofintra-market commonality inliquidity onthe investigated exchanges. According tothe literature, positive and statistically significant slope coefficients inthe estimated models are especially desired, asthey indicate co-movements inliquidity inthe same direction, and therefore confirm commonality inliquidity. Ingeneral, the estimation results provide noevidence ofco-movements inliquidity onthe CEE stock exchanges because positive and statistically significant coefficients rarely appear, regardless ofthe choice ofthe liquidity estimate. The empirical findings are somewhat homogeneous for all investigated markets. Therefore, noreason has been found toreject the research hypothesis that there isno commonality inliquidity onthe CEE stock markets, taken separately. This isperhaps the most significant finding ofour research. The results are novel and generally consistent with the literature concerning other emerging markets inthe world but are incontrast toprevious studies ofdeveloped markets. The findings fill the gap inthe literature ofcommonality inliquidity onemerging and frontier markets, and therefore, our study contributes tothe body ofknowledge inthat respect. Moreover, this paper proposes attributing the absence ofcommonality inliquidity onthe small CEE stock exchanges mainly tothe non-trading problem. Itis worth noting that commonality inliquidity may depend onthe structure ofthe stock market, and itis less pronounced inorder-driven markets than for dealer orhybrid markets because quote-driven orhybrid systems offer aform ofliquidity supplier. The results ofthis research have important practical implications and may beuseful indecision-making processes. From apractical point ofview, the problem iscrucial because the absence ofcommonality inliquidity influences investment strategies, portfolio management and risk diversification, domestic and international asset pricing, etc. Moreover, empirical findings concerning liquidity co-movements would help regulators and policymakers inimproving stock market design. Undoubtedly, alow level ofcommonality inliquidity has some advantages because itreduces the susceptibility ofacountry’s financial system tothe drying upof liquidity across many securities during periods ofmarket stress and crisis (Karolyi etal.2012). The empirical results presented inthis study certainly cannot provide definitive conclusions asto commonality inliquidity onthe investigated markets. Selected liquidity proxies based ondaily data are utilized. According tothe literature, there are several existing liquidity measures, and different frequencies ofdata are used. Various proxies derived from intraday data are particularly useful and frequently employed inassessing commonality inliquidity (e.g., Pukthuanthong-Le, Visaltanachoti 2009; Narayan etal.2015; Olbryś 2019a). However, high-frequency data are not freely available for the analyzed CEE stock exchanges, and this isthe main limitation ofthe study.
107 No Commonality in Liquidity on Small Emerging Markets… Apossible direction for further investigation could beto identify components ofliquidity onthe CEE stock markets taken separately, applying methods based onprincipal component analysis. Tothe best ofthe author’s knowledge, nosuch research has been undertaken thus far. Another important direction for further research could beacomparative investigation ofcommonality inliquidity onthe same six small CEE stock exchanges before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Inall likelihood, the less liquid emerging stock markets will beamong the most affected bythe worldwide recession. Many firms will have serious problems surviving the COVID-19 pandemic period, and itis possible that the number ofcompanies listed onsmall stock exchanges will substantially change. However, the non-trading problem will increase. References Amihud, Y.(2002), Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-Section and Time-Series Effects, “Journal ofFinancial Markets”, 5(1), https://doi.org/10.1016/S1386-4181(01)00024-6 Bai,M., Qin, Y.(2015), Commonality inLiquidity inEmerging Markets: Another Supply-Side Explanation, “International Review ofEconomics & Finance”, 39, https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2015.06.005 Bekaert,G., Harvey, C.R., Lundblad, C.(2007), Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets, “Review ofFinancial Studies”, 20(6), https://doi.org /10.1093/rfs/hhm030 Będowska-Sójka, B.(2019), Commonality inLiquidity Measures. The Evidence from the Polish Stock Market, “Hradec Economic Days”, 9(1). Brockman,P., Chung, D.Y., Perignon, C.(2009), Commonality inLiquidity: AGlobal Perspective, “Journal ofFinancial and Quantitative Analysis”, 44(4), https://doi.org /10.1017/S0022109009990123 Chordia,T., Roll,R., Subrahmanyam, A.(2000), Commonality inLiquidity, “Journal ofFinancial Economics”, 56(1), https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00057-4 Corwin, S.A., Schultz, P.(2012), ASimply Way toEstimate Bid-Ask Spreads from Daily High and Low Prices, “Journal ofFinance”, 67(2), https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540 -6261.2012.01729.x Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A.(1981), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with aUnit Root, “Econometrica”, 49(4), https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517 Dimson, E.(1979), Risk Measurement when Shares are Subject toInfrequent Trading, “Journal ofFinancial Economics”, 7, https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(79)90013-8 Elliott,G., Rothenberg, T.J., Stock, J.H.(1996), Efficient Tests for anAutoregressive Unit Root, “Econometrica”, 64(4), https://doi.org/10.2307/2171846 Engle, R.F.(1982), Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates ofthe Variance ofUnited Kingdom Inflations, “Econometrica”, 50, https://doi.org/10.23 07/1912773 Fong, K.Y.L., Holden, C.W., Trzcinka, C.(2017), What are the Best Liquidity Proxies for Global Research?, “Review ofFinance”, 21, https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfx003
108 Joanna Olbryś Kamara,A., Lou,X., Sadka, R.(2008), The Divergence ofLiquidity Commonality inthe Cross-Section ofStocks, “Journal ofFinancial Economics”, 89(3), https://doi.org/10 .1016/j.jfineco.2007.10.004 Kang,W., Zhang, H.(2013), Limit Order Book and Commonality inLiquidity, “Financial Review”, 48(1), https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.2012.00348.x Karolyi, G.A., Lee, K.-H., van Dijk, M.A.(2012), Understanding Commonality inLiquidity Around the World, “Journal ofFinancial Economics”, 105(1), https://doi.org /10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.12.008 Kearney, C.(2012), Emerging Markets Research: Trends, Issues, and Future Directions, “Emerging Markets Review”, 13(2), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2012.01.003 Kiviaho,J., Nikkinen,J., Piljak,V., Rothovius, T.(2014), The Comovement Dynamics ofEuropean Frontier Stock Markets, “European Financial Management”, 20(3), https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2012.00646.x Korajczyk,R., Sadka, R.(2008), Pricing the Commonality Across Alternative Measures ofLiquidity, “Journal ofFinancial Economics”, 87(1), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfine co.2006.12.003 Narayan, P.K., Zhang,Z., Zheng, X.(2015), Some Hypotheses onCommonality inLiquidity: New Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market, “Emerging Markets Finance & Trade”, 51, https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1061799 Newey, W.K., West, K.D.(1987), ASimple, Positive Semi-Define, Heteroskesticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix, “Econometrica”, 55(3), https://doi .org/10.2307/1913610 Olbryś, J.(2014), IsIlliquidity Risk Priced? The Case ofthe Polish Medium-Size Emerging Stock Market, “Bank iKredyt”, 45(6). Olbryś, J.(2018), The Non-Trading Problem inAssessing Commonality inLiquidity onEmerging Stock Markets, “Dynamic Econometric Models”, 18, https://doi.org /10.12775/DEM.2018.004 Olbryś, J.(2019a), Intra-Market Commonality inLiquidity. New Evidence from the Polish Stock Exchange, “Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal ofEconomics and Economic Policy”, 14(2), https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2019.012 Olbryś, J.(2019b), Market-Wide Commonality inLiquidity onthe CEE-3 Emerging Stock Markets, [in:] K.Jajuga, H.Locarek-Junge, L.T.Orlowski, K.Staehr (eds), Contemporary Trends and Challenges inFinance, Springer Nature Switzerland AG, https:// doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15581-0_13 Olbryś, J.(2020), Market Tightness onthe CEE Emerging Stock Exchanges inthe Context ofthe Non-Trading Problem, [in:] N. Tsounis, A. Vlachvei (eds), Advances in Cross-Section Data Methods in Applied Economic Research. Springer Nature Switzerland AG, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38253-7_36 Olbryś,J., Mursztyn, M.(2018), OnSome Characteristics ofLiquidity Proxy Time Series. Evidence from the Polish Stock Market, [in:] N. Tsounis, A. Vlachvei (eds), Advances inTime Series Data Methods inApplied Economic Research, Springer Nature Switzerland AG, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02194-8_13 Pukthuanthong-Le,K., Visaltanachoti, N.(2009), Commonality inLiquidity: Evidence from the Stock Exchange ofThailand, “Pacific-Basin Finance Journal”, 17(1), https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2007.12.004
109 No Commonality in Liquidity on Small Emerging Markets… Sensoy, A.(2016), Commonality inLiquidity: Effects ofMonetary Policy and Macroeconomic Announcements, “Finance Research Letters”, 16, https://doi.org/10.1016 /j.frl.2015.10.021 Syamala,R., Wadhwa,K., Goyal, A.(2017), Determinants ofCommonality inLiquidity: Evidence from anOrder-Driven Emerging Market, “North American Journal ofEconomics and Finance”, 42, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2017.07.003 Wang, J.(2013), Liquidity Commonality Among Asian Equity Markets, “Pacific-Basin Finance Journal”, 21(1), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2012.05.001 Streszczenie Brak wspólności w płynności na małych rozwijających się rynkach giełdowych? Wyniki dla giełd Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej Celem pracy było badanie komparatywne tzw. wspólności w płynności (commonality in liquidity) na sześciu małych giełdach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej. Analizowane rynki to: Czechy, Węgry, Słowacja, Litwa, Estonia i Łotwa. Wykorzystano trzy miary płynności/niepłynności aktywów kapitałowych, aproksymowane na podstawie danych dziennych. Próba objęła okres 5 lat, od stycznia 2012 do grudnia 2016. Do oszacowania modeli płynności zastosowano metodę estymatorów odpornych HAC oraz modele typu GARCH (w przypadku wystąpienia efektu ARCH w procesach resztowych). Dodatkowo przeprowadzono analizę stabilności wyników w czasie za pomocą procedury ruchomego okna. Wyniki empiryczne nie ujawniły wyraźnych wzorców w płynności na badanych rynkach oraz okazały się bardzo zbliżone na wszystkich giełdach, analizowanych oddzielnie. Na tej podstawie stwierdzono brak podstaw do odrzucenia hipotezy badawczej o braku wspólności w płynności na każdym z rynków. Badanie wypełnia lukę literaturową dotyczącą płynności na małych giełdach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej, ponieważ żadne z wcześniejszych opracowań nie analizowało w sposób kompleksowy całej grupy wymienionych rynków. Słowa kluczowe: Europa Środkowo-Wschodnia, wspólność w płynności, GARCH, HAC, ruchome okno czasowe, dane dzienne