Myanmar's Trade and its Potential

Ferrarini, Benno Working Paper Myanmar's Trade and its Potential ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 325 Provided in Cooperation with: Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila Suggested Citation: Ferrarini, Benno (2013) : Myanmar's Trade and its Potential, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 325, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila, https://hdl.handle.net/11540/2084 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/109454 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo Myanmar’s Trade and its Potential Benno Ferrarini No. 325 | January 2013 ADB Economics Working Paper Series ADB Economics Working Paper Series Myanmar’s Trade and its Potential Benno Ferrarini No. 325 January 2013 Benno Ferrarini is Senior Economist at the Economics and Research Department of the Asian Development Bank. T his paper is not written in an official capacity and must not be attributed to ADB. In this long, unedited version, the paper is mainly meant to provide the reader with an overview of Myanmar’s trade profile and data for broader reference. For a shorter and more technical version, please contact the author at [email protected]. Without implicating, this analysis benefitted from COMTRADE data extractions for world trade matrices by Cindy Petalcorin, help on Myanmar’s GDP series by Eileen Capilit, and from useful comments from Martin Bodenstein, Enrique Galan, Eugenia Go, and Arief Ramayandi in relation to an earlier draft. All remaining errors are my own. Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org © 2013 by Asian Development Bank January 2013 ISSN 1655-5252 Publication Stock No. WPS135525 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. The ADB Economics Working Paper Series is a forum for stimulating discussion and eliciting feedback on ongoing and recently completed research and policy studies undertaken by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) staff, consultants, or resource persons. The series deals with key economic and development problems, particularly those facing the Asia and Pacific region; as well as conceptual, analytical, or methodological issues relating to project/program economic analysis, and statistical data and measurement. The series aims to enhance the knowledge on Asia’s development and policy challenges; strengthen analytical rigor and quality of ADB’s country partnership strategies, and its subregional and country operations; and improve the quality and availability of statistical data and development indicators for monitoring development effectiveness. The ADB Economics Working Paper Series is a quick-disseminating, informal publication whose titles could subsequently be revised for publication as articles in professional journals or chapters in books. The series is maintained by the Economics and Research Department. Printed on recycled paper CONTENTS ABSTRACT v I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. TRADE BY PARTNERS AND COMMODITIES 1 III. MYANMAR’S EXPORT POTENTIAL 7 IV. CONCLUSIONS 13 Annex 1. Myanmar's GDP in LCU and Exchange Rate 15 Annex 2. Myanmar's Bilateral Trade Profile, 1990–2010 16 Annex 3. Further Tabulations in Relation to Myanmar's Trade 22 Annex 4. Gravity Regression Analysis 46 Annex 5. Myanmar Gravity Exports 53 ABBREVIATIONS 58  REFERENCES 58    ABSTRACT    The paper tabulates Myanmar’s merchandise trade as reported by its partner countries, thereby circumventing the data constraints stemming from Myanmar’s patchy trade records. It then estimates Myanmar’s export potential, based on the bilateral export patterns observed for six other countries in Southeast Asia. Against that benchmark and controlling for outliers, Myanmar is found to be trading at about 15% its potential. The bulk of this gap is explained by very low trade with the industrialized countries. Through reintegration with the world economy accompanied by deep economic reforms domestically, Myanmar would be expected to be closing this gap rather swiftly. Keywords: Myanmar, gravity model, export potential JEL Classificaton: F14, F17 I. INTRODUCTION Myanmar’s incipient transition to a more stable, open political system and economy has moved it into the spotlight of international attention. However, years of insulation from international reporting standards and obligations have left the public domain with a rather scant record of economic data and statistics against which to assess Myanmar’s progress with economic reforms and structural adjustment. Patchy are also the records on Myanmar’s detailed bilateral merchandise trade in the COMTRADE database maintained by the United Nations Statistical Division, and the same is true for the more aggregate trade statistics of the International Monetary Fund DOTS database. Fortunately, international trade transactions are typically recorded twice: by the exporting country when the merchandise is leaving its territory, and by the importing country when it enters through customs. Notwithstanding Myanmar’s rather poor record of reporting, finely detailed merchandise trade statistics involving the country can be compiled from COMTRADE data to the extent that trading partners have been reporting these transactions over time.1 Compiling such data is done quite readily, given access to the source and the necessary computing tools to efficiently handle the rather large amount of data a detailed world trade matrix entails. This paper aims at facilitating broader access to these data, by tabulating Myanmar’s trade by main partners and commodities in the two decades up to 2010. Beyond descriptives, the paper fits an augmented gravity model to a panel data set including six ASEAN2 member countries and their exports to Asia and the rest of the world, between 2000 and 2010. The estimates are then used to predict, out of sample, Myanmar’s exports to those main destinations, as explained by its economy’s force of attraction within world trade on grounds of its size, distance from other markets, or the existence of cultural and colonial ties with trading partners. Myanmar’s actual and predicted exports are then plotted for comparison. The paper provides an overview of Myanmar’s trade pattern in Section II, discusses the gravity regressions and predictions in Section III, and concludes in Section IV. II. TRADE BY PARTNERS AND COMMODITIES Data on Myanmar as reported by its trading partners to the United Nations Statistics Division are derived from a world trade matrix compiled from COMTRADE at three digits of the Standard Industry Trade Category (SITC) classification.3 1 Apart from trade in services, which is not part of COMTRADE, this will exclude all unrecorded and illicit crossborder flows of merchandise, such as in relation to a country’s transactions in heroin and methamphetamine, hidden shipments of gems and precious stones, or arms trade. 2 The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has 10 members: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam. For reasons clarified below, excluded from the gravity regressions in this paper are Brunei Darussalam, the Lao PDR, and Singapore, besides Myanmar itself. 3 Data up to a maximum of five digits SITC (or six digits of the Harmonized System classification) are available for this study, but are not reported since three digits are sufficient a degree of disaggregation to almost fully exhaust the detail of Myanmar’s fairly coarse and undiversified trade profile. 8  ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 325 The core regression in this paper applies ordinary least squares, allowing for yearand dyad-specific fixed effects by pooling and clustering observations. What is termed here a pseudo-fixed effects approach (PSEUDOFE) circumvents the problem of fitting a fixed-effects model proper in the presence of time-invariant dichotomous variablessuch as distancethat are of course perfectly collinear with the country-pair individual effects.10 The robustness of estimates is then checked against alternative model specifications. A generalized least squares random effects estimator (REGLS) assumes that disturbances across panels ij are not identically distributed and the errors ijt u are serially correlated.11 A feasible generalized least squares estimator (FGLS) is used to allow for heteroskedasticity and AR(1) autoregressive correlation specific to each panel, rather than assuming it a common feature across country pairs. Finally, an unconditional fixed-effects Tobit estimator (TOBIT) is deployed to address the fact that the observations in the panel dataset are truncated due to missing observations in relation to dyads with zero trade flows in any given year, which may cause bias in the other approaches.12 Turning to the results, the elasticity coefficients of variables included in the core specification (PSEUDOFE) have the expected sign and are statistically significant (Table 3, column 1). For example, a country with a GDP 10% larger than average is estimated to be exporting 15% more than average, all else the same. Exports will expand by nearly 9% on average if the importing country’s GDP increases by 10%. Moreover, exports will respond positively to higher GDP per capita at home as well as abroad, or to having in common with trading partners a joint border, some sort of colonial relationship past or present, or with a preferential trade agreement in effect. By contrast, the negative sign of the estimated distance coefficient means that such trade costs significantly deter trade. 10 It should be noted that the inclusion of dyadic dummies is of particular importance in the context of a gravity model used to estimating trade potential. Absent such dummies, earlier studies inaccurately interpreted large residuals from gravity regression as an indication of high trade potential when in fact it was model misspecification leading to large systemic residuals (Egger 2002). Moreover, the inclusion of dyadic dummies avoids the need for gravity models to include a multilateral trade resistance term in order to avoid model misspecification and biased estimates of bilateral resistance terms, such as geodesic distance (Anderson and Wincoop 2003). 11 Essentially, this is achieved through the application of the Huber-White sandwich estimator (Stock 2008). 12 Truncation to a degree is unavoidable in this empirical setting, as zero trade flows are incompatible with logarithmic specification, since undefined. However, the likelihood of a serious bias appears sufficiently remote here, as the incidence of zero trade flows in the squared data set represents less than 1% of total observations. Myanmar’s Trade and Its Potential  9 Table 3: Gravity Regressions Regressant: Exports (log) (1) (2) (3) (4) PSEUDOFE REGLS FGLS TOBIT GDP Exporter (log) 1.486*** 1.465*** 1.488*** 1.466*** (0.0961) (0.0959) (0.0323) (0.0851) GDPpc Exporter (log) 0.358*** 0.573*** 0.379*** 0.564*** (0.0977) (0.134) (0.0232) (0.123) GDP Importer (log) 0.887*** 1.002*** 0.882*** 0.997*** (0.0637) (0.0777) (0.0208) (0.0662) GDPpc Importer (log) 0.471*** 0.483*** 0.490*** 0.483*** (0.0667) (0.0955) (0.0176) (0.0731) Distance (log) –1.140*** –1.353*** –1.226*** –1.344*** (0.155) (0.203) (0.0564) (0.189) Common Border (0,1) 0.830*** 0.704** 0.739*** 0.709 (0.284) (0.318) (0.0994) (0.455) Common Language (0,1) –0.792*** –0.832*** –0.861*** –0.830*** (0.195) (0.177) (0.0740) (0.322) Colonial Link (0,1) 0.830*** 0.711*** 0.893*** 0.716** (0.240) (0.263) (0.0807) (0.321) Free Trade Agreement (0,1) 0.484** 0.290 0.538*** 0.298 (0.206) (0.223) (0.0670) (0.246) Constant –38.34*** –40.31*** –37.54*** –40.22*** (2.525) (2.705) (0.942) (2.318) R-squared (adjusted) 0.808 0.807 n/a n/a Observations 2,233 2,233 2,233 2,233 Country pairs 203 203 203 203 Robust standard errors in parentheses: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The likelihood ratio test of 0 u V in relation to TOBIT truncated at zero is 2 F = 5772\)***. GDP and exports are deflated and expressed as constant 2000 USD. Country-pair and/or time dummy coefficients are included in the regressions but not reported. GDP, GDPpc and exports are deflated, with base year 2000. Against intuition and the typical gravity findings, the common language coefficient has a negative sign. This is a selection effect, due to the language-ethnography dummy reflecting mainly the Philippines’ exports to countries such as the US, Canada, Australia, United Kingdom, Pakistan, or Egypt, which are lower than average ASEAN exports to these countries.13 An adjusted R2 of 0.8 indicates an especially tight fit of the model to the data, which is important especially in an empirical context where trade potential is derived from estimated regression residuals. Furthermore, the results are robust to changes in the model specification; the second and fourth columns yield coefficients that are consistent with the core model in the first column in terms of magnitude, sign and statistical significance. The coefficients on the free trade agreement dummy in the GLS random effects (2) and Tobit (4) models are an exception, as significance is beyond the conventionally accepted thresholds. However, the magnitudes of point estimates are confirmed across columns, which attests to the fundamental robustness of the core estimates in column 1.14 13 Additional robustness testsomitted here for brevity but available from the author on requestshow that the core coefficients estimated are robust to the exclusion of the language dummy. 14 It should be noted that this is true also for the estimated coefficient of the constant term, the accuracy of which is of considerable importance when trade flows are predicted. Here, the –38.34 point estimate of the constant term is associated with a standard error of 2.53, which indicates an exceptionally high degree of accuracy hence reliability of predictions. 10  ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 325 The elasticities estimated by the gravity model for the six benchmark exporters and 35 importers form the basis for predicting Myanmar’s export volumes. Such prediction is said to be out-of-sample, as observations on Myanmar were excluded from the benchmark regression and only now are being combined with the elasticities previously estimated. Specifically, Myanmar’s potential or notional export values are the values fitted to its GDP between 2000 and 2010 jointly with all the other gravity regressors listed in the first column of Table 3. Fitted or `gravity’ values of Myanmar’s exports can thus be plotted against actual bilateral exports to key markets from 2000 to 2010, in lieu of a counterfactual envisaging Myanmar as having had the same relative ability to export and facing trade restrictions no higher than did the six benchmark ASEAN countries during the period of reference. Myanmar’s actual exports are found exceeding gravity exports between 2000 and 2007 (Fig. 6). This is because gravity predicts an extremely low potential at Myanmar’s level of income compared to that of the six reference countries. Moreover, actual exports by Myanmar during that period were boosted by exceptionally high trade with a few specific countries, pushing actual exports to these destinations far beyond the levels predicted by gravity. For example, natural gas exports to Thailand alone constitute nearly half the value of Myanmar’s total exports value. Myanmar’s GDP growth (in constant US dollar terms) accelerated during the second half of the 2000s, exacerbated by a strong appreciation of the Kyat against the US dollar. Consequently, Myanmar’s gravity export potential grew almost exponentially, from 2007 onward and particularly from 2009 to 2010, reflecting also the boost to trade from a rebounding global economy. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s actual exports were largely unresponsive to rising output and increasingly were falling short of potential. By 2010, potential exceeded Myanmar’s actual exports by a factor of more than four (Figure 6). The weakest exporter among the sample of seven ASEAN countries considered in this analysis, Myanmar is seen ranking lowest in terms of the ratio of actual to gravity exports (Table 4). During 2006–2010, this ratio averaged only 0.38 across Myanmar’s trading partners. Weighing outliers, such as exports to Thailand, the geometric mean of Myanmar’s actual-topotential exports ratio turns out even lower, at 0.15. That is, Myanmar exploited only 15 percent of its (gravity) export potential, on average, in the five years to 2010. Myanmar’s Trade and Its Potential  11 Figure 6: Actual and Gravity Exports Myanmar’s Total Exports ($ millions deflated to 2000) Note: Exports to countries included in the gravity regression. Table 4: Actual and Gravity Exports (2006–2010) Exporte r Actual Gravity Ratio (mean) (geom. mean) VNM 168,454 105,424 3.08 2.38 MYS 488,231 584,285 1.53 1.16 THA 439,008 743,924 1.34 1.04 KHM 12,203 4,661 3.07 1.03 IDN 386,119 689,035 1.11 0.85 PHL 151,902 370,239 0.77 0.50 MMR 18,533 38,929 0.38 0.15 Actual and gravity exports are in constant year-2000 dollar millions. 05,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Actual Gravity 12  ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 325 Table 5: MMR Actual/Gravity Ratio (2006–2010 Exports to Actual Gravity Ratio Share THA 9,348 3,101 3.01 30.63 VNM 195 118 1.65 0.38 PAK 176 117 1.51 0.29 IND 3,253 4,136 0.79 –4.33 ESP 164 293 0.56 –0.63 ZAF 24 45 0.55 –0.10 MYS 557 1,107 0.50 –2.70 ARG 33 69 0.48 –0.18 IDN 97 220 0.44 –0.61 TUR 54 149 0.36 –0.47 CHN 1,965 5,995 0.33 –19.76 DEU 359 1,124 0.32 –3.75 LKA 17 62 0.27 –0.22 ARE 150 564 0.27 –2.03 KOR 365 1,532 0.24 –5.72 MEX 21 99 0.21 –0.38 PHL 21 124 0.17 –0.51 NLD 45 277 0.16 –1.14 EGY 6 39 0.15 –0.16 CZE 5 37 0.15 –0.15 RUS 21 143 0.14 –0.60 ITA 78 589 0.13 –2.51 BEL 22 167 0.13 –0.71 SAU 23 173 0.13 –0.74 FRA 82 735 0.11 –3.20 JPN 1,090 10,388 0.10 –45.59 AUS 59 580 0.10 –2.55 BGD 73 748 0.10 –3.31 GBR 211 2,218 0.10 –9.84 NZL 4 46 0.09 –0.21 BRA 4 101 0.04 –0.48 CAN 11 308 0.04 –1.46 KAZ 0 24 0.01 –0.12 KHM 0 20 0.01 –0.10 USA 0 3,478 0.00 –17.05 Actual and gravity exports are in USD millions. “Ratio” is the ratio of actual over gravity exports. “Share” is parters’ share of the actual-gravity differential. Myanmar’s Trade and Its Potential  13 By contrast, Table 4 shows Viet Nam to have outstripped gravity exports by an average factor of 3, or 2.4 when outliers are weighed through geometric rather than arithmetic mean computation. Roughly in line with predictions are exports by Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia, when controlling for outliers, such as Cambodia’s disproportional exports volume to the United States. Besides Myanmar, only the Philippines’ underwhelming export performance stands out against the group of successful ASEAN exporters.15,16 Table 5jointly with the time series plots of Myanmar’s gravity exports in Annex 5shows that Myanmar’s exports during 2006–2010 fell substantially short of potential for all destinations but Thailand, Viet Nam and Pakistan. Myanmar’s actual-to-gravity ratio in relation to Thailand exceeds 3, and for the other two markets is about 1.5. While trade with all three countries contributes positively to closing Myanmar’s gap to potential, only Thailand does so significantly, accounting for nearly 31% of the total difference between potential and actual exports. Among the developing countries, (PRC)\ is the export destination with the largest unexploited potential for Myanmar; 2006–2010 exports to PRC were about one third their potential level and constituted nearly 20% of Myanmar’s total gap to potential. Other destinations in developing Asia with a large unused potential are Malaysia (with a ratio of 0.50 and a share of 2.7%) and India (0.79 and 4.3%). Due to exceptionally high natural gas exports to Thailand, developing countries jointly account for less than 10% of Myanmar’s export gap to potential. More than 90% of it is on account of the industrialized countries, particularly Japan (share of 46%), Europe (22%), and the United States (17%).17 Therefore, Myanmar’s gradual integration with the world economy and normalized access to the Japanese, European and American markets is likely to substantially boost its exports toward potential. IV. CONCLUSIONS The analysis in the paper points to Myanmar’s vast unexploited trade potential, the bulk of which is determined by weak trade with the industrialized countries. Myanmar’s gradual integration with the world economy and normalized, unsanctioned access to the European and American markets may thus be expected to fill this gap at least in part. Clearly, the notion of gravity potential only weakly relates to a country’s true export potential, which depends on a range of variables beyond the narrow scope of the gravity framework. On the domestic front, Myanmar’s trade potential will be defined by its capacity to mobilize its resources through reforms aimed at maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment, investing heavily in infrastructure and human capital, reforming its financial sector and the foreign exchange regime. On the international front, of key importance to Myanmar as a trading nation will be the course taken by the future adjustment of regional production and trade networks to a changing global economic environment. While the regional reallocation of 15 The inclusion of services data in the analysis would likely lead to some adjustment in the findings, particularly for countries with substantial services exports, such as the Philippines. 16 Annex 4 Tables 28 to 34 provide a more detailed account of actual and gravity exports for each of the six Asian countries and Myanmar in relation to their trading partners. 17 The industrialized countries in the data set comprise the United States, Canada, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Czech Republic, Australia. It should be noted that jointly these countries account for more than 90% of the differential between potential and actual trade, also because Thailand closes nearly 31% of that gap and thereby significantly lowers the weight of emerging countries as a group. 14  ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 325 production processes may well open up new opportunities for latecomers like Myanmar, the challenges from tighter competition within the region against the backdrop of a possible reshoring of production toward the industrialized countries may well pose hurdles to Myanmar’s prospects to diversify its economy away from exclusive reliance on primary commodities and low-skill manufactures exports. Notwithstanding these challenges and assuming that necessary economic and political reforms will move ahead, Myanmar’s transition toward normalized trade with the rest of the world will benefit from its favourable predisposition to international trade; the country is a natural trade and transportation hub for the entire region, nestled between the PRC and India, with wellestablished trade channels also to Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore, and with access to the Indian Ocean shipping lanes. A boost to exports will likely derive also from the expansion of a tourism industry that can build on the country’s rich natural and cultural heritage. Myanmar’s Trade and Its Potential  15 Annex 1: Myanmar’s GDP in LCU and Exchange Rate GDP in Current and Constant Kyats Market Exchange Rate (Kyats/$) 6 8 10 12 14 Real GDP growth (%) 010,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 GDP (current Kyats) GDP (constant Kyats) Real GDP growth (%) Data source: ADB Key Indicators 2012 and IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2012 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Date source: Derived from IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2012 16  ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 325 Annex 2: Myanmar’s Bilateral Trade Profile, 1990–2010 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MyanmarTotal Trade 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MMRTHA Trade 0 500 1,000 1,500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MMRIND Trade 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MMRCHN Trade 0 100 200 300 400 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MMRJPN Trade 0 100 200 300 400 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MMRMYS Trade Myanmar’s Trade and Its Potential  17 0 100 200 300 400 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MMRKOR Trade 0 50 100 150 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MMRDEU Trade 0 50 100 150 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MMRGBR Trade 0 100 200 300 1995 2000 2005 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MMRVNM Trade 0 20 40 60 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MMRPAK Trade 0 20 40 60 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MMR Imports (deflated) MMR Exports (deflated) MMR Imports (current) MMR Exports (current) Note: Series are deflated by the CPB world trade price index with 2000 as the base year (USD millions) MMRESP Trade Table 7: Myanmar’s Imports by Origin and Categories (2006-2010) ISO Exporter Total USDm STM Food Fuels Agric. Manuf. CHN People’s Rep. of China 10,622.1 35.65 3.13 5.08 1.29 90.50 THA Thailand 6,659.2 22.35 23.40 16.91 1.46 58.24 SGP Singapore 4,677.3 15.70 11.62 40.29 2.36 45.72 KOR Rep. of Korea 1,542.1 5.18 0.25 1.64 5.00 93.11 MYS Malaysia 1,268.4 4.26 39.43 15.30 3.27 42.00 IDN Indonesia 1,109.8 3.73 58.63 0.31 0.27 40.79 IND India 1,004.9 3.37 13.20 2.16 1.91 82.73 JPN Japan 930.7 3.12 0.53 0.31 1.35 97.80 DEU Germany 232.4 0.78 2.35 1.01 1.48 95.16 HKG Hong Kong, China 227.8 0.76 1.97 0.18 0.30 97.55 AUS Australia 201.5 0.68 82.49 0.33 2.10 15.07 RUS Russian Federation 160.6 0.54 4.40 4.03 4.00 87.56 ITA Italy 150.4 0.50 1.22 0.29 0.01 98.48 FRA France 125.8 0.42 10.98 0.62 0.58 87.81 VNM Viet Nam 104.9 0.35 5.18 0.15 1.77 92.90 ARE United Arab Emirates 80.7 0.27 4.21 19.22 3.81 72.76 UKR Ukraine 64.4 0.22 13.38 10.65 10.65 65.32 IRN Iran 53.1 0.18 0.25 97.10 0.38 2.26 PHL Philippines 45.3 0.15 9.35 3.13 0.27 87.26 USA United States 43.6 0.15 22.26 3.67 4.18 69.88 BEL Belgium 41.0 0.14 11.50 0.55 7.19 80.77 AUT Austria 36.5 0.12 0.38 0.38 0.38 98.85 BRA Brazil 36.4 0.12 86.62 0.01 0.20 13.17 GBR United Kingdom 34.3 0.12 29.48 1.92 1.64 66.95 TUR Turkey 32.7 0.11 3.44 0.32 0.95 95.29 PAK Pakistan 32.3 0.11 8.19 0.00 16.06 75.75 NZL New Zealand 29.7 0.10 91.68 0.05 5.73 2.55 NLD Netherlands 29.4 0.10 5.32 2.77 6.86 85.04 NGA Nigeria 27.4 0.09 7.89 0.00 0.98 91.13 SWE Sweden 26.8 0.09 11.47 11.47 11.50 65.55 CHE Switzerland 26.1 0.09 5.72 0.00 0.00 94.28 SRB Serbia 24.4 0.08 13.49 13.49 13.49 59.53 ESP Spain 17.6 0.06 4.42 9.42 0.67 85.49 OMN Oman 13.6 0.05 7.05 7.23 6.95 78.78 BGD Bangladesh 13.4 0.04 0.01 14.42 0.06 85.51 ISR Israel 9.0 0.03 2.79 4.81 2.75 89.65 ZAF South Africa 6.2 0.02 12.12 0.00 0.00 87.88 DNK Denmark 4.6 0.02 9.91 0.94 0.94 88.22 KWT Kuwait 4.0 0.01 0.49 0.00 0.00 99.51 HRV Croatia 3.7 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 Note: In percent, unless indicated otherwise. 24 Table 7 (cont’d): Myanmar’s Imports by Origin and Categories (2006-2010) ISO Exporter Total USDm STM Food Fuels Agric. Manuf. CAN Canada 3.2 0.01 0.98 0.98 0.98 97.06 MDG Madagascar 3.0 0.01 0.09 0.09 1.05 98.77 IRL Ireland 2.6 0.01 4.09 0.00 0.26 95.65 POL Poland 2.6 0.01 48.34 0.00 0.25 51.41 FIN Finland 2.2 0.01 2.78 2.78 2.78 91.66 CYP Cyprus 2.0 0.01 8.57 0.00 0.00 91.43 CZE Czech Rep. 2.0 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.04 99.89 BIH Bosnia Herzegovina 1.8 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 ARG Argentina 1.6 0.01 15.76 0.00 0.00 84.24 GRC Greece 1.5 0.01 0.00 0.00 96.80 3.20 KHM Cambodia 1.5 0.00 2.61 0.88 0.88 95.64 BLR Belarus 1.4 0.00 24.91 0.00 0.00 75.09 NOR Norway 1.2 0.00 2.88 2.88 2.88 91.35 CRI Costa Rica 1.1 0.00 96.02 0.00 3.98 0.00 PRT Portugal 1.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 ROW Rest of the World 8.9 0.00 18.66 4.51 17.52 59.30 Total World 29,791.7 100.00 13.61 13.09 1.85 71.45 Note: In percent, unless indicated otherwise. 2125 Table 8: Myanmar’s Top 30 Exports to Thailand Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SPX STX SIX 1 343 Natural gas, whether or not liquefied 12,344.8 90.7 43.8 100.0 2 247 Wood in the rough or roughly squared 300.1 2.2 1.1 9.6 3 034 Fish, fresh (live or dead), chilled or f 241.9 1.8 0.9 36.0 4 682 Copper 154.5 1.1 0.5 64.7 5 333 Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bi 72.0 0.5 0.3 30.9 6 036 Crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic invert 70.5 0.5 0.3 9.5 7 248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleeper 70.5 0.5 0.3 11.7 8 054 Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or si 62.0 0.5 0.2 1.6 9 634 Veneers, plywood, particle board, and ot 31.5 0.2 0.1 23.0 10 001 Live animals other than animals of divis 23.1 0.2 0.1 96.4 11 245 Fuel wood (excluding wood waste) and woo 23.1 0.2 0.1 26.5 12 635 Wood manufactures, n.e.s. 22.7 0.2 0.1 61.9 13 287 Ores and concentrates of base metals, n. 21.5 0.2 0.1 7.4 14 821 Furniture and parts thereof; bedding, ma 15.5 0.1 0.1 30.5 15 321 Coal, whether or not pulverized, but not 15.5 0.1 0.1 99.9 16 291 Crude animal materials, n.e.s. 15.2 0.1 0.1 36.8 17 057 Fruit and nuts (not including oil nuts), 13.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 18 793 Ships, boats (including hovercraft) and 13.4 0.1 0.0 84.7 19 042 Rice 10.0 0.1 0.0 3.7 20 667 Pearls and precious or semiprecious ston 8.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 21 851 Footwear 8.5 0.1 0.0 2.6 22 081 Feeding stuff for animals (not including 7.2 0.1 0.0 9.4 23 044 Maize (not including sweet corn), unmill 6.5 0.0 0.0 5.8 24 075 Spices 6.4 0.0 0.0 14.4 25 931 Special transactions and commodities not 6.2 0.0 0.0 16.0 26 292 Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s. 5.6 0.0 0.0 13.6 27 771 Electric power machinery (other than rot 4.8 0.0 0.0 19.8 28 222 fixed vegetable oils (excluding flours 4.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 29 263 Cotton 3.8 0.0 0.0 95.2 30 899 Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e 2.7 0.0 0.0 10.5 Note: Total exports 2006-2010. SPX=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total exports to the partner country. STX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports. SIX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports of that item. 22 26 Table 9: Myanmar’s Top 30 Exports to India Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SPX STX SIX 1 054 Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or si 2,929.9 62.0 10.4 73.6 2 247 Wood in the rough or roughly squared 1,659.9 35.2 5.9 53.3 3 634 Veneers, plywood, particle board, and ot 45.4 1.0 0.2 33.2 4 291 Crude animal materials, n.e.s. 19.7 0.4 0.1 47.5 5 061 Sugars, molasses and honey 16.8 0.4 0.1 39.6 6 211 Hides and skins (except furskins), raw 8.5 0.2 0.0 78.4 7 075 Spices 7.7 0.2 0.0 17.1 8 231 Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, gu 6.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 9 057 Fruit and nuts (not including oil nuts), 5.9 0.1 0.0 3.9 10 931 Special transactions and commodities not 4.1 0.1 0.0 10.8 11 248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleeper 3.9 0.1 0.0 0.7 12 251 Pulp and waste paper 2.7 0.1 0.0 6.8 13 611 Leather 1.4 0.0 0.0 53.7 14 292 Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s. 1.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 15 899 Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e 0.9 0.0 0.0 3.6 16 245 Fuel wood (excluding wood waste) and woo 0.9 0.0 0.0 1.0 17 034 Fish, fresh (live or dead), chilled or f 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 18 223 Oil-seeds and oleaginous fruits, whole o 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.9 19 635 Wood manufactures, n.e.s. 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 20 542 Medicaments (including veterinary medica 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.1 21 081 Feeding stuff for animals (not including 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 22 699 Manufactures of base metal, n.e.s. 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.8 23 036 Crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic invert 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 24 541 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, o 0.3 0.0 0.0 82.0 25 895 Office and stationery supplies, n.e.s. 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.3 26 287 Ores and concentrates of base metals, n. 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 27 681 Silver, platinum and other metals of the 0.2 0.0 0.0 27.3 28 662 Clay construction materials and refracto 0.2 0.0 0.0 78.0 29 667 Pearls and precious or semiprecious ston 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 841 Men’s or boys’ coats, capes, jackets, su 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Note: Total exports 2006-2010. SPX=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total exports to the partner country. STX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports. SIX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports of that item. 23 27 Table 10: Myanmar’s Top 30 Exports to the People’s Republic of China Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SPX STX SIX 1 247 Wood in the rough or roughly squared 695.2 24.1 2.5 22.3 2 287 Ores and concentrates of base metals, n. 259.6 9.0 0.9 89.1 3 667 Pearls and precious or semiprecious ston 255.8 8.8 0.9 54.2 4 248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleeper 241.3 8.3 0.9 40.2 5 231 Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, gu 195.6 6.8 0.7 45.1 6 054 Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or si 189.9 6.6 0.7 4.8 7 222 fixed vegetable oils (excluding flours 158.4 5.5 0.6 58.2 8 281 Iron ore and concentrates 144.2 5.0 0.5 100.0 9 057 Fruit and nuts (not including oil nuts), 111.8 3.9 0.4 73.9 10 034 Fish, fresh (live or dead), chilled or f 101.0 3.5 0.4 15.0 11 036 Crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic invert 84.3 2.9 0.3 11.4 12 351 Electric current 84.2 2.9 0.3 100.0 13 884 Optical goods, n.e.s. 36.4 1.3 0.1 41.8 14 682 Copper 29.5 1.0 0.1 12.4 15 278 Other crude minerals 29.5 1.0 0.1 99.5 16 251 Pulp and waste paper 29.3 1.0 0.1 75.2 17 764 Telecommunications equipment, n.e.s., an 28.0 1.0 0.1 57.4 18 245 Fuel wood (excluding wood waste) and woo 26.3 0.9 0.1 30.2 19 081 Feeding stuff for animals (not including 22.7 0.8 0.1 29.7 20 292 Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s. 20.6 0.7 0.1 49.9 21 333 Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bi 18.6 0.6 0.1 8.0 22 283 Copper ores and concentrates; copper mat 13.0 0.4 0.0 100.0 23 061 Sugars, molasses and honey 11.3 0.4 0.0 26.7 24 634 Veneers, plywood, particle board, and ot 11.1 0.4 0.0 8.1 25 044 Maize (not including sweet corn), unmill 10.9 0.4 0.0 9.8 26 223 Oil-seeds and oleaginous fruits, whole o 10.8 0.4 0.0 57.5 27 035 Fish, dried, salted or in brine; smoked 8.6 0.3 0.0 33.5 28 551 Essential oils, perfume and flavour mate 7.1 0.2 0.0 76.3 29 045 Cereals, unmilled (other than wheat, ric 6.7 0.2 0.0 94.4 30 621 Materials of rubber (e.g., pastes, plate 5.2 0.2 0.0 99.2 Note: Total exports 2006-2010. SPX=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total exports to the partner country. STX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports. SIX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports of that item. 24 28 Table 11: Myanmar’s Top 30 Exports to Japan Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SPX STX SIX 1 841 Men’s or boys’ coats, capes, jackets, su 482.1 30.5 1.7 37.9 2 036 Crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic invert 298.5 18.9 1.1 40.4 3 851 Footwear 295.7 18.7 1.1 88.6 4 222 fixed vegetable oils (excluding flours 98.9 6.2 0.4 36.3 5 845 Articles of apparel, of textile fabrics, 75.3 4.8 0.3 18.6 6 842 Women’s or girls’ coats, capes, jackets, 70.2 4.4 0.2 13.7 7 054 Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or si 58.1 3.7 0.2 1.5 8 667 Pearls and precious or semiprecious ston 45.0 2.8 0.2 9.5 9 245 Fuel wood (excluding wood waste) and woo 35.8 2.3 0.1 41.2 10 034 Fish, fresh (live or dead), chilled or f 30.8 1.9 0.1 4.6 11 081 Feeding stuff for animals (not including 16.6 1.0 0.1 21.8 12 682 Copper 11.7 0.7 0.0 4.9 13 772 Electrical apparatus for switching or pr 10.9 0.7 0.0 88.2 14 248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleeper 7.6 0.5 0.0 1.3 15 247 Wood in the rough or roughly squared 6.2 0.4 0.0 0.2 16 037 Fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aq 6.2 0.4 0.0 39.5 17 872 Instruments and appliances, n.e.s., for 5.9 0.4 0.0 97.1 18 658 Made-up articles, wholly or chiefly of t 4.5 0.3 0.0 14.5 19 061 Sugars, molasses and honey 4.4 0.3 0.0 10.5 20 291 Crude animal materials, n.e.s. 2.3 0.1 0.0 5.6 21 035 Fish, dried, salted or in brine; smoked 2.3 0.1 0.0 9.1 22 635 Wood manufactures, n.e.s. 2.1 0.1 0.0 5.6 23 931 Special transactions and commodities not 1.5 0.1 0.0 3.9 24 895 Office and stationery supplies, n.e.s. 1.4 0.1 0.0 30.6 25 251 Pulp and waste paper 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 26 897 Jewellery, goldsmiths’ and silversmiths’ 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.2 27 634 Veneers, plywood, particle board, and ot 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 28 075 Spices 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.7 29 821 Furniture and parts thereof; bedding, ma 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.3 30 522 Inorganic chemical elements, oxides and 0.6 0.0 0.0 92.0 Note: Total exports 2006-2010. SPX=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total exports to the partner country. STX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports. SIX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports of that item. 25 29 Table 12: Myanmar’s Top 30 Exports to Malaysia Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SPX STX SIX 1 231 Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, gu 199.3 24.5 0.7 45.9 2 054 Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or si 135.5 16.7 0.5 3.4 3 036 Crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic invert 86.6 10.7 0.3 11.7 4 248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleeper 71.4 8.8 0.3 11.9 5 034 Fish, fresh (live or dead), chilled or f 62.6 7.7 0.2 9.3 6 044 Maize (not including sweet corn), unmill 51.6 6.3 0.2 46.6 7 247 Wood in the rough or roughly squared 49.8 6.1 0.2 1.6 8 658 Made-up articles, wholly or chiefly of t 19.1 2.3 0.1 61.9 9 771 Electric power machinery (other than rot 18.8 2.3 0.1 76.9 10 682 Copper 15.5 1.9 0.1 6.5 11 081 Feeding stuff for animals (not including 15.0 1.9 0.1 19.7 12 841 Men’s or boys’ coats, capes, jackets, su 13.7 1.7 0.0 1.1 13 287 Ores and concentrates of base metals, n. 9.6 1.2 0.0 3.3 14 042 Rice 8.1 1.0 0.0 3.0 15 075 Spices 7.8 1.0 0.0 17.5 16 035 Fish, dried, salted or in brine; smoked 7.4 0.9 0.0 29.0 17 057 Fruit and nuts (not including oil nuts), 7.1 0.9 0.0 4.7 18 786 Trailers and semi-trailers; other vehicl 5.1 0.6 0.0 97.0 19 931 Special transactions and commodities not 3.4 0.4 0.0 8.8 20 551 Essential oils, perfume and flavour mate 2.1 0.3 0.0 22.8 21 222 fixed vegetable oils (excluding flours 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.7 22 592 Starches, inulin and wheat gluten; album 1.9 0.2 0.0 90.7 23 842 Women’s or girls’ coats, capes, jackets, 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 24 699 Manufactures of base metal, n.e.s. 1.5 0.2 0.0 40.4 25 061 Sugars, molasses and honey 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.0 26 292 Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s. 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.0 27 899 Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.6 28 687 Tin 1.1 0.1 0.0 31.1 29 048 Cereal preparations and preparations of 1.1 0.1 0.0 79.2 30 653 Fabrics, woven, of man-made textile mate 0.9 0.1 0.0 23.2 Note: Total exports 2006-2010. SPX=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total exports to the partner country. STX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports. SIX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports of that item. 26 30 Table 13: Myanmar’s Top 30 Exports to the Republic of Korea Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SPX STX SIX 1 333 Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bi 142.7 26.8 0.5 61.2 2 841 Men’s or boys’ coats, capes, jackets, su 111.0 20.9 0.4 8.7 3 842 Women’s or girls’ coats, capes, jackets, 103.2 19.4 0.4 20.2 4 845 Articles of apparel, of textile fabrics, 38.2 7.2 0.1 9.4 5 634 Veneers, plywood, particle board, and ot 32.2 6.0 0.1 23.5 6 054 Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or si 21.3 4.0 0.1 0.5 7 058 Fruit, preserved, and fruit preparations 12.7 2.4 0.0 92.3 8 036 Crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic invert 12.7 2.4 0.0 1.7 9 231 Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, gu 12.4 2.3 0.0 2.9 10 851 Footwear 6.8 1.3 0.0 2.0 11 292 Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s. 6.7 1.3 0.0 16.3 12 034 Fish, fresh (live or dead), chilled or f 3.6 0.7 0.0 0.5 13 056 Vegetables, roots and tubers, prepared o 3.4 0.6 0.0 56.1 14 899 Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e 3.2 0.6 0.0 12.7 15 247 Wood in the rough or roughly squared 2.8 0.5 0.0 0.1 16 222 fixed vegetable oils (excluding flours 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 17 248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleeper 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.4 18 843 Men’s or boys’ coats, capes, jackets, su 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.0 19 844 Women’s or girls’ coats, capes, jackets, 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.2 20 044 Maize (not including sweet corn), unmill 1.2 0.2 0.0 1.1 21 682 Copper 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 22 793 Ships, boats (including hovercraft) and 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.9 23 657 Special yarns, special textile fabrics a 0.7 0.1 0.0 23.5 24 245 Fuel wood (excluding wood waste) and woo 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.8 25 821 Furniture and parts thereof; bedding, ma 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 26 699 Manufactures of base metal, n.e.s. 0.5 0.1 0.0 14.4 27 635 Wood manufactures, n.e.s. 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 28 291 Crude animal materials, n.e.s. 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 29 098 Edible products and preparations, n.e.s. 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.7 30 287 Ores and concentrates of base metals, n. 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 Note: Total exports 2006-2010. SPX=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total exports to the partner country. STX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports. SIX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports of that item. 27 31 Table 14: Myanmar’s Top 30 Exports to Germany Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SPX STX SIX 1 841 Men’s or boys’ coats, capes, jackets, su 217.3 42.2 0.8 17.1 2 842 Women’s or girls’ coats, capes, jackets, 136.1 26.4 0.5 26.6 3 845 Articles of apparel, of textile fabrics, 66.5 12.9 0.2 16.4 4 247 Wood in the rough or roughly squared 21.2 4.1 0.1 0.7 5 844 Women’s or girls’ coats, capes, jackets, 19.3 3.7 0.1 42.2 6 851 Footwear 13.4 2.6 0.0 4.0 7 248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleeper 12.2 2.4 0.0 2.0 8 121 Tobacco, unmanufactured; tobacco refuse 5.4 1.0 0.0 99.7 9 821 Furniture and parts thereof; bedding, ma 4.4 0.9 0.0 8.8 10 658 Made-up articles, wholly or chiefly of t 3.5 0.7 0.0 11.5 11 843 Men’s or boys’ coats, capes, jackets, su 3.4 0.7 0.0 6.5 12 036 Crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic invert 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.4 13 054 Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or si 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 14 075 Spices 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.8 15 667 Pearls and precious or semiprecious ston 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 16 899 Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.6 17 635 Wood manufactures, n.e.s. 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 18 848 Articles of apparel and clothing accesso 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.5 19 931 Special transactions and commodities not 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 20 098 Edible products and preparations, n.e.s. 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.7 21 846 Clothing accessories, of textile fabrics 0.2 0.0 0.0 16.3 22 292 Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s. 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 23 264 Jute and other textile bast fibres, n.e. 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 24 653 Fabrics, woven, of man-made textile mate 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 25 223 Oil-seeds and oleaginous fruits, whole o 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 26 071 Coffee and coffee substitutes 0.1 0.0 0.0 24.5 27 652 Cotton fabrics, woven (not including nar 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5 28 037 Fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aq 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 29 778 Electrical machinery and apparatus, n.e. 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.8 30 695 Tools for use in the hand or in machines 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 Note: Total exports 2006-2010. SPX=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total exports to the partner country. STX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports. SIX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports of that item. 28 32 Table 15: Myanmar’s Top 30 Exports to Singapore Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SPX STX SIX 1 273 Stone, sand and gravel 116.1 27.6 0.4 96.9 2 248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleeper 63.5 15.1 0.2 10.6 3 036 Crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic invert 45.8 10.9 0.2 6.2 4 034 Fish, fresh (live or dead), chilled or f 38.1 9.1 0.1 5.7 5 054 Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or si 27.9 6.6 0.1 0.7 6 723 Civil engineering and contractors’ plant 18.3 4.4 0.1 97.4 7 081 Feeding stuff for animals (not including 9.4 2.2 0.0 12.3 8 845 Articles of apparel, of textile fabrics, 8.4 2.0 0.0 2.1 9 931 Special transactions and commodities not 8.3 2.0 0.0 21.6 10 042 Rice 7.3 1.7 0.0 2.7 11 122 Tobacco, manufactured (whether or not co 6.9 1.6 0.0 93.3 12 634 Veneers, plywood, particle board, and ot 5.1 1.2 0.0 3.8 13 842 Women’s or girls’ coats, capes, jackets, 5.1 1.2 0.0 1.0 14 222 fixed vegetable oils (excluding flours 5.0 1.2 0.0 1.9 15 112 Alcoholic beverages 4.1 1.0 0.0 81.2 16 044 Maize (not including sweet corn), unmill 3.9 0.9 0.0 3.5 17 251 Pulp and waste paper 3.5 0.8 0.0 9.1 18 841 Men’s or boys’ coats, capes, jackets, su 3.4 0.8 0.0 0.3 19 843 Men’s or boys’ coats, capes, jackets, su 3.4 0.8 0.0 6.4 20 037 Fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aq 3.0 0.7 0.0 19.4 21 821 Furniture and parts thereof; bedding, ma 2.9 0.7 0.0 5.7 22 667 Pearls and precious or semiprecious ston 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 23 971 Gold, non-monetary (excluding gold ores 2.1 0.5 0.0 100.0 24 844 Women’s or girls’ coats, capes, jackets, 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.7 25 792 Aircraft and associated equipment; space 1.5 0.4 0.0 33.8 26 075 Spices 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.2 27 897 Jewellery, goldsmiths’ and silversmiths’ 1.4 0.3 0.0 20.3 28 247 Wood in the rough or roughly squared 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 29 635 Wood manufactures, n.e.s. 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2 30 057 Fruit and nuts (not including oil nuts), 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.7 Note: Total exports 2006-2010. SPX=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total exports to the partner country. STX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports. SIX=Share of Myanmar’s total exports of that item. 29 33 Table 22: Myanmar’s Top 30 Imports from Malaysia Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SCM STM SIM 1 422 Fixed vegetable fat, oils, other 403.1 31.8 1.4 34.1 2 334 Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bi 176.8 13.9 0.6 5.2 3 575 Other plastics, in primary forms 49.3 3.9 0.2 12.1 4 672 Ingots and other primary forms, of iron 40.6 3.2 0.1 19.8 5 931 Special transactions and commodities not 33.9 2.7 0.1 8.6 6 571 Polymers of ethylene, in primary forms 31.8 2.5 0.1 20.1 7 679 Tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, and tu 28.3 2.2 0.1 6.8 8 091 Margarine and shortening 22.1 1.7 0.1 75.6 9 098 Edible products and preparations, n.e.s. 21.6 1.7 0.1 3.3 10 554 Soap, cleansing and polishing preparatio 20.0 1.6 0.1 10.3 11 773 Equipment for distributing electricity, 18.6 1.5 0.1 9.6 12 533 Pigments, paints, varnishes and related 18.3 1.4 0.1 10.5 13 542 Medicaments (including veterinary medica 18.0 1.4 0.1 2.8 14 431 Animal or vegetable fats and oils, proce 16.8 1.3 0.1 10.6 15 562 Fertilizers (other than those of group 2 16.5 1.3 0.1 10.0 16 278 Other crude minerals 15.9 1.3 0.1 36.1 17 893 Articles, n.e.s., of plastics 12.0 0.9 0.0 6.4 18 786 Trailers and semi-trailers; other vehicl 11.2 0.9 0.0 37.6 19 784 Parts and accessories of the motor vehic 11.0 0.9 0.0 3.4 20 582 Plates, sheets, film, foil and strip, of 10.6 0.8 0.0 5.6 21 574 Polyacetals, other polyethers and epoxid 10.1 0.8 0.0 13.7 22 048 Cereal preparations and preparations of 10.1 0.8 0.0 6.3 23 598 Miscellaneous chemical products, n.e.s. 9.8 0.8 0.0 8.6 24 653 Fabrics, woven, of man-made textile mate 9.5 0.8 0.0 1.0 25 684 Aluminium 9.3 0.7 0.0 10.3 26 713 Internal combustion piston engines, and 9.1 0.7 0.0 1.7 27 665 Glassware 8.8 0.7 0.0 13.1 28 723 Civil engineering and contractors’ plant 8.4 0.7 0.0 0.8 29 553 Perfumery, cosmetic or toilet preparatio 8.0 0.6 0.0 4.2 30 741 Heating and cooling equipment, and parts 8.0 0.6 0.0 2.4 Note: Total imports 2006-2010. SPM=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total imports from the partner country. STM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports. SIM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports of that item. 36 40 Table 23: Myanmar’s Top 30 Imports from Indonesia Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SCM STM SIM 1 422 Fixed vegetable fat, oils, other 614.7 55.4 2.1 52.0 2 641 Paper and paperboard 140.2 12.6 0.5 49.5 3 679 Tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, and tu 46.7 4.2 0.2 11.2 4 554 Soap, cleansing and polishing preparatio 32.4 2.9 0.1 16.6 5 542 Medicaments (including veterinary medica 24.1 2.2 0.1 3.8 6 431 Animal or vegetable fats and oils, proce 24.1 2.2 0.1 15.2 7 653 Fabrics, woven, of man-made textile mate 22.5 2.0 0.1 2.5 8 782 Motor vehicles for the transport of good 17.1 1.5 0.1 2.6 9 574 Polyacetals, other polyethers and epoxid 14.3 1.3 0.0 19.4 10 625 Rubber tyres, interchangeable tyre tread 11.9 1.1 0.0 2.5 11 664 Glass 9.7 0.9 0.0 20.2 12 652 Cotton fabrics, woven (not including nar 7.5 0.7 0.0 1.6 13 771 Electric power machinery (other than rot 6.8 0.6 0.0 3.5 14 723 Civil engineering and contractors’ plant 6.6 0.6 0.0 0.6 15 673 Flat-rolled products of iron or non-allo 5.9 0.5 0.0 2.6 16 573 Polymers of vinyl chloride or of other h 5.8 0.5 0.0 5.9 17 598 Miscellaneous chemical products, n.e.s. 5.6 0.5 0.0 5.0 18 575 Other plastics, in primary forms 5.5 0.5 0.0 1.4 19 562 Fertilizers (other than those of group 2 5.1 0.5 0.0 3.1 20 091 Margarine and shortening 5.0 0.5 0.0 17.2 21 743 Pumps (other than pumps for liquids), ai 4.8 0.4 0.0 2.2 22 642 Paper and paperboard, cut to size or sha 3.9 0.3 0.0 3.9 23 551 Essential oils, perfume and flavour mate 3.8 0.3 0.0 5.4 24 781 Motor cars and other motor vehicles prin 3.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 25 674 Flat-rolled products of iron or non-allo 3.6 0.3 0.0 0.9 26 691 Structures and parts of structures, n.e. 3.6 0.3 0.0 0.8 27 334 Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bi 3.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 28 778 Electrical machinery and apparatus, n.e. 3.2 0.3 0.0 1.0 29 514 Nitrogen-function compounds 3.1 0.3 0.0 1.0 30 676 Iron and steel bars, rods, angles, shape 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.4 Note: Total imports 2006-2010. SPM=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total imports from the partner country. STM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports. SIM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports of that item. 37 41 Table 24: Myanmar’s Top 30 Imports from India Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SCM STM SIM 1 542 Medicaments (including veterinary medica 225.8 22.5 0.8 35.4 2 674 Flat-rolled products of iron or non-allo 140.5 14.0 0.5 33.7 3 011 Meat of bovine animals, fresh, chilled o 64.3 6.4 0.2 94.2 4 625 Rubber tyres, interchangeable tyre tread 35.4 3.5 0.1 7.5 5 673 Flat-rolled products of iron or non-allo 26.9 2.7 0.1 11.7 6 772 Electrical apparatus for switching or pr 26.5 2.6 0.1 13.5 7 651 Textile yarn 22.1 2.2 0.1 9.1 8 081 Feeding stuff for animals (not including 20.0 2.0 0.1 36.4 9 575 Other plastics, in primary forms 18.0 1.8 0.1 4.4 10 334 Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bi 17.5 1.7 0.1 0.5 11 697 Household equipment of base metal, n.e.s 17.3 1.7 0.1 35.0 12 931 Special transactions and commodities not 14.3 1.4 0.0 3.6 13 785 Motor cycles (including mopeds) and cycl 14.2 1.4 0.0 1.7 14 723 Civil engineering and contractors’ plant 13.7 1.4 0.0 1.3 15 773 Equipment for distributing electricity, 13.5 1.3 0.0 6.9 16 895 Office and stationery supplies, n.e.s. 13.4 1.3 0.0 28.8 17 695 Tools for use in the hand or in machines 12.4 1.2 0.0 17.3 18 699 Manufactures of base metal, n.e.s. 12.3 1.2 0.0 5.0 19 541 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, o 12.1 1.2 0.0 10.6 20 771 Electric power machinery (other than rot 11.4 1.1 0.0 5.9 21 791 Railway vehicles (including hovertrains) 11.3 1.1 0.0 14.1 22 676 Iron and steel bars, rods, angles, shape 10.0 1.0 0.0 1.4 23 042 Rice 9.8 1.0 0.0 32.4 24 061 Sugars, molasses and honey 9.2 0.9 0.0 14.8 25 782 Motor vehicles for the transport of good 8.6 0.9 0.0 1.3 26 691 Structures and parts of structures, n.e. 8.1 0.8 0.0 1.8 27 591 Insecticides, rodenticides, fungicides, 7.6 0.8 0.0 8.5 28 022 Milk and cream and milk products other t 7.2 0.7 0.0 3.4 29 672 Ingots and other primary forms, of iron 6.3 0.6 0.0 3.1 30 682 Copper 5.9 0.6 0.0 17.5 Note: Total imports 2006-2010. SPM=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total imports from the partner country. STM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports. SIM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports of that item. 38 42 Table 25: Myanmar’s Top 30 Imports from Japan Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SCM STM SIM 1 723 Civil engineering and contractors’ plant 208.8 22.4 0.7 19.2 2 782 Motor vehicles for the transport of good 186.8 20.1 0.6 28.5 3 653 Fabrics, woven, of man-made textile mate 72.5 7.8 0.2 8.0 4 781 Motor cars and other motor vehicles prin 56.7 6.1 0.2 28.7 5 783 Road motor vehicles, n.e.s. 29.0 3.1 0.1 37.3 6 713 Internal combustion piston engines, and 20.2 2.2 0.1 3.7 7 716 Rotating electric plant, and parts there 16.7 1.8 0.1 5.1 8 784 Parts and accessories of the motor vehic 16.3 1.8 0.1 5.0 9 744 Mechanical handling equipment, and parts 16.1 1.7 0.1 7.5 10 899 Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e 15.2 1.6 0.1 9.3 11 575 Other plastics, in primary forms 14.3 1.5 0.0 3.5 12 743 Pumps (other than pumps for liquids), ai 12.2 1.3 0.0 5.7 13 741 Heating and cooling equipment, and parts 11.2 1.2 0.0 3.4 14 931 Special transactions and commodities not 11.0 1.2 0.0 2.8 15 785 Motor cycles (including mopeds) and cycl 10.2 1.1 0.0 1.2 16 791 Railway vehicles (including hovertrains) 8.7 0.9 0.0 10.9 17 652 Cotton fabrics, woven (not including nar 8.6 0.9 0.0 1.8 18 699 Manufactures of base metal, n.e.s. 8.1 0.9 0.0 3.3 19 657 Special yarns, special textile fabrics a 7.9 0.8 0.0 3.3 20 772 Electrical apparatus for switching or pr 7.7 0.8 0.0 3.9 21 654 Other textile fabrics, woven 7.2 0.8 0.0 13.3 22 893 Articles, n.e.s., of plastics 6.9 0.7 0.0 3.7 23 728 Other machinery and equipment specialize 6.5 0.7 0.0 2.7 24 695 Tools for use in the hand or in machines 6.4 0.7 0.0 8.9 25 748 Transmission shafts (including camshafts 6.0 0.6 0.0 9.3 26 722 Tractors (other than those of headings 7 5.9 0.6 0.0 11.6 27 742 Pumps for liquids, whether or not fitted 5.7 0.6 0.0 4.8 28 726 Printing and bookbinding machinery, and 5.7 0.6 0.0 15.4 29 656 Tulles, lace, embroidery, ribbons, trimm 5.7 0.6 0.0 6.3 30 651 Textile yarn 4.8 0.5 0.0 2.0 Note: Total imports 2006-2010. SPM=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total imports from the partner country. STM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports. SIM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports of that item. 39 43 Table 26: Myanmar’s Top 30 Imports from Germany Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SCM STM SIM 1 533 Pigments, paints, varnishes and related 28.3 12.4 0.1 16.3 2 741 Heating and cooling equipment, and parts 25.5 11.2 0.1 7.7 3 726 Printing and bookbinding machinery, and 17.6 7.7 0.1 47.4 4 582 Plates, sheets, film, foil and strip, of 10.7 4.7 0.0 5.6 5 731 Machine tools working by removing metal 10.7 4.7 0.0 7.1 6 743 Pumps (other than pumps for liquids), ai 10.6 4.6 0.0 5.0 7 641 Paper and paperboard 9.0 3.9 0.0 3.2 8 542 Medicaments (including veterinary medica 8.1 3.6 0.0 1.3 9 772 Electrical apparatus for switching or pr 6.3 2.8 0.0 3.2 10 541 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, o 6.3 2.7 0.0 5.5 11 714 Engines and motors, non-electric (other 6.3 2.7 0.0 19.3 12 723 Civil engineering and contractors’ plant 5.8 2.6 0.0 0.5 13 931 Special transactions and commodities not 5.0 2.2 0.0 1.3 14 598 Miscellaneous chemical products, n.e.s. 4.4 1.9 0.0 3.8 15 872 Instruments and appliances, n.e.s., for 4.0 1.8 0.0 5.4 16 657 Special yarns, special textile fabrics a 3.5 1.6 0.0 1.5 17 874 Measuring, checking, analysing and contr 3.5 1.5 0.0 2.5 18 774 Electrodiagnostic apparatus for medical, 3.4 1.5 0.0 12.4 19 742 Pumps for liquids, whether or not fitted 3.3 1.4 0.0 2.7 20 553 Perfumery, cosmetic or toilet preparatio 3.3 1.4 0.0 1.7 21 745 Non-electrical machinery, tools and mech 3.1 1.3 0.0 4.6 22 851 Footwear 2.8 1.2 0.0 1.3 23 728 Other machinery and equipment specialize 2.7 1.2 0.0 1.1 24 571 Polymers of ethylene, in primary forms 2.6 1.1 0.0 1.6 25 692 Metal containers for storage or transpor 2.4 1.1 0.0 3.1 26 744 Mechanical handling equipment, and parts 2.3 1.0 0.0 1.1 27 725 Paper mill and pulp mill machinery, pape 2.2 1.0 0.0 9.8 28 098 Edible products and preparations, n.e.s. 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.2 29 652 Cotton fabrics, woven (not including nar 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.3 30 895 Office and stationery supplies, n.e.s. 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.9 Note: Total imports 2006-2010. SPM=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total imports from the partner country. STM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports. SIM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports of that item. 40 44 Table 27: Myanmar’s Top 30 Imports from Hong Kong, China Rank Code Item(S3d) USDm SCM STM SIM 1 884 Optical goods, n.e.s. 45.2 19.8 0.2 75.0 2 652 Cotton fabrics, woven (not including nar 32.5 14.2 0.1 6.9 3 764 Telecommunications equipment, n.e.s., an 27.2 11.9 0.1 6.8 4 885 Watches and clocks 13.0 5.7 0.0 58.4 5 899 Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e 12.7 5.6 0.0 7.7 6 655 Knitted or crocheted fabrics (including 9.1 4.0 0.0 8.2 7 542 Medicaments (including veterinary medica 6.8 3.0 0.0 1.1 8 651 Textile yarn 5.4 2.4 0.0 2.2 9 893 Articles, n.e.s., of plastics 4.7 2.1 0.0 2.5 10 653 Fabrics, woven, of man-made textile mate 4.2 1.9 0.0 0.5 11 656 Tulles, lace, embroidery, ribbons, trimm 4.2 1.8 0.0 4.6 12 657 Special yarns, special textile fabrics a 3.8 1.7 0.0 1.6 13 762 Radio-broadcast receivers, whether or no 3.7 1.6 0.0 15.3 14 892 Printed matter 3.4 1.5 0.0 5.5 15 845 Articles of apparel, of textile fabrics, 2.6 1.2 0.0 3.8 16 654 Other textile fabrics, woven 2.6 1.1 0.0 4.7 17 841 Men’s or boys’ coats, capes, jackets, su 2.1 0.9 0.0 8.1 18 541 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, o 2.1 0.9 0.0 1.8 19 642 Paper and paperboard, cut to size or sha 2.0 0.9 0.0 2.0 20 763 Sound recorders or reproducers; televisi 1.9 0.8 0.0 1.8 21 751 Office machines 1.8 0.8 0.0 5.4 22 699 Manufactures of base metal, n.e.s. 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.7 23 012 Other meat and edible meat offal, fresh, 1.6 0.7 0.0 10.8 24 831 Trunks, suitcases, vanity cases, executi 1.5 0.7 0.0 11.8 25 846 Clothing accessories, of textile fabrics 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.6 26 011 Meat of bovine animals, fresh, chilled o 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.2 27 728 Other machinery and equipment specialize 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.6 28 931 Special transactions and commodities not 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.3 29 571 Polymers of ethylene, in primary forms 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.8 30 731 Machine tools working by removing metal 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.8 Note: Total imports 2006-2010. SPM=Item’s share of Myanmar’s total imports from the partner country. STM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports. SIM=Share of Myanmar’s total imports of that item. 41 45 Annex 4: Gravity Regression Analysis Table 28: List of Countries Included in the Gravity Regressions EXPORTERS (as well as IMPORTERS): ISO Country IDN Indonesia KHM Cambodia MYS Malaysia PHL Philippines THA Thailand VNM Viet Nam IMPORTERS: ISO Country ARE UnitedArabEmirates ARG Argentina AUS Australia BEL Belgium BGD Bangladesh BRA Brazil CAN Canada CHN People’s Rep. of China CZE Czech Republic DEU Germany EGY Egypt ESP Spain FRA France GBR United Kingdom IND India ITA Italy JPN Japan KAZ Kazakhstan KOR Republic of Korea LKA Sri Lanka MEX Mexico NLD Netherlands NZL New Zealand PAK Pakistan RUS Russian Federation SAU Saudi Arabia TUR Turkey USA United States ZAF South Africa Note: The regressions include exports from 2000 to 2010. 46 Table 29: VNM Actual/Gravity Ratio (2006-2010) Exports to Actual Gravity Ratio Share BEL 3,364 451 7.46 4.62 CZE 683 98 6.99 0.93 PHL 4,577 692 6.61 6.16 ZAF 780 124 6.29 1.04 RUS 2,201 369 5.96 2.91 MEX 1,815 314 5.77 2.38 AUS 11,762 2,109 5.58 15.31 NLD 3,984 746 5.34 5.14 ESP 3,847 798 4.82 4.84 USA 40,404 10,714 3.77 47.10 EGY 331 95 3.47 0.37 IDN 3,218 932 3.45 3.63 TUR 1,281 375 3.42 1.44 DEU 9,317 3,008 3.10 10.01 MYS 6,630 2,239 2.96 6.97 CAN 2,691 931 2.89 2.79 PAK 260 98 2.67 0.26 KHM 3,043 1,201 2.53 2.92 BRA 692 282 2.46 0.65 GBR 5,106 2,557 2.00 4.04 ITA 3,163 1,586 1.99 2.50 NZL 319 165 1.93 0.24 LKA 92 49 1.87 0.07 ARE 975 558 1.75 0.66 THA 4,167 3,274 1.27 1.42 ARG 243 198 1.23 0.07 KOR 6,642 5,493 1.21 1.82 FRA 5,413 4,736 1.14 1.07 IND 1,458 1,343 1.09 0.18 SAU 385 414 0.93 -0.05 KAZ 47 56 0.84 -0.01 CHN 15,183 20,221 0.75 -7.99 JPN 24,309 39,031 0.62 -23.36 MMR 72 168 0.43 -0.15 Actual and gravity exports are in USD millions. ”Ratio” is the ratio of actual over gravity exports. ”Share” is parters’ share of the actual-gravity differential. 43 47 Table 30: KHM Actual/Gravity Ratio (2006-2010) Exports to Actual Gravity Ratio Share CAN 792 40 19.83 9.97 USA 6,727 460 14.63 83.10 ESP 415 35 11.79 5.03 NLD 282 33 8.65 3.31 GBR 866 112 7.75 10.00 BEL 138 20 6.98 1.56 DEU 858 132 6.51 9.63 MEX 81 13 6.04 0.90 CZE 21 4 4.81 0.22 RUS 41 16 2.56 0.33 ZAF 14 6 2.37 0.10 TUR 39 17 2.36 0.30 ARG 14 9 1.56 0.07 ITA 107 70 1.53 0.49 FRA 268 208 1.29 0.79 VNM 437 372 1.17 0.86 BRA 13 13 1.04 0.01 ARE 26 25 1.02 0.01 KAZ 2 2 0.82 -0.01 NZL 4 7 0.56 -0.04 THA 316 574 0.55 -3.42 AUS 50 94 0.53 -0.58 MYS 58 122 0.48 -0.84 PHL 10 27 0.38 -0.22 LKA 1 2 0.38 -0.02 CHN 101 345 0.29 -3.23 JPN 439 1,544 0.28 -14.66 KOR 57 211 0.27 -2.04 IDN 11 45 0.23 -0.46 IND 12 62 0.19 -0.67 EGY 1 4 0.18 -0.05 BGD 1 7 0.17 -0.07 SAU 3 19 0.14 -0.21 MMR 1 9 0.11 -0.10 PAK 0 4 0.04 -0.06 Actual and gravity exports are in USD millions. ”Ratio” is the ratio of actual over gravity exports. ”Share” is parters’ share of the actual-gravity differential. 44 48 Table 31: MYS Actual/Gravity Ratio (2006-2010) Exports to Actual Gravity Ratio Share MEX 11,762 2,204 5.34 9.95 NLD 21,581 5,189 4.16 17.07 CHN 71,169 18,536 3.84 54.79 CZE 2,071 678 3.05 1.45 VNM 8,405 2,836 2.96 5.80 ZAF 3,109 1,058 2.94 2.14 EGY 1,621 692 2.34 0.97 NZL 2,866 1,365 2.10 1.56 PHL 8,220 3,944 2.08 4.45 PAK 5,047 2,451 2.06 2.70 RUS 4,320 2,394 1.80 2.00 BGD 2,549 1,901 1.34 0.68 BRA 2,986 2,244 1.33 0.77 IDN 19,835 15,070 1.32 4.96 LKA 1,307 1,074 1.22 0.24 AUS 22,346 18,494 1.21 4.01 USA 87,700 74,156 1.18 14.10 CAN 7,410 6,384 1.16 1.07 TUR 2,992 2,652 1.13 0.35 SAU 3,108 3,071 1.01 0.04 ARE 9,735 9,771 1.00 -0.04 KHM 485 498 0.97 -0.01 DEU 19,903 20,917 0.95 -1.06 THA 31,628 34,434 0.92 -2.92 IND 20,101 22,089 0.91 -2.07 KOR 25,713 28,441 0.90 -2.84 BEL 2,297 3,145 0.73 -0.88 KAZ 234 346 0.68 -0.12 FRA 7,309 14,023 0.52 -6.99 ESP 2,938 5,715 0.51 -2.89 ARG 749 1,632 0.46 -0.92 MMR 864 1,984 0.44 -1.17 ITA 3,747 11,290 0.33 -7.85 JPN 62,455 221,183 0.28 -165.25 GBR 9,670 42,423 0.23 -34.10 Actual and gravity exports are in USD millions. ”Ratio” is the ratio of actual over gravity exports. ”Share” is parters’ share of the actual-gravity differential. 45 49 56  ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 325 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to SAU 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to BEL 0 10 20 30 40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to MEX 0 20 40 60 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to RUS 0 20 40 60 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to PHL 0 10 20 30 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to LKA 0 50 100 150 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to CAN 0 5 10 15 20 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to EGY Myanmar’s Trade and Its Potential  57 0 5 10 15 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to CZE 0 5 10 15 20 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to NZL 0 10 20 30 40 50 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to BRA 0 5 10 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to KAZ 0 2 4 6 8 10 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to KHM 0 500 1,000 1,500 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Actual Exports Gravity Exports USD millions MMR exports to USA 58  ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 325 ABBREVIATIONS ARG Argentina ARE United Arab Emirates AUS Australia AUT Austria BGD Bangladesh BRA Brazil BEL Belgium BRN Brunei Darussalam CAN Canada CHN People’s Republic of China CYP Cyprus CZE Czech Republic DEU Germany EGY Egypt ESP Spain FRA France GBR United Kingdom IDN Indonesia IND India ITA Italy JPN Japan KAZ Kazakhstan KHM Cambodia KOR Republic of Korea KWT Kuwait LKA Sri Lanka MMR Myanmar MEX Mexico MYS Malaysia NLD Netherlands NZL New Zealand PAK Pakistan PHL Philippines RUS Russian Federation SAU Saudi Arabia SGP Singapore SVN Slovenia SVK Slovakia THA Thailand TUR Turkey USA United States VNM Viet Nam ZAF South Africa Myanmar’s Trade and Its Potential  59 REFERENCES Anderson, J. 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TradeSim (second version), a gravity model for the calculation of trade potentials for developing countries and economies in transitionExplanatory notes. Technical report, International Trade Centre (UNCTAD/WTO). Stock, J. H. and M. W. Watson. 2008. Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression. Econometrica, 76(1):155–174. Myanmar’s Trade and Its Potential The paper tabulates Myanmar’s merchandise trade as reported by its partner countries. It then estimates Myanmar’s export potential, based on the bilateral export patterns observed for six other countries in Southeast Asia. Against that benchmark and controlling for outliers, Myanmar is found to be trading at about 15% its potential. About the Asian Development Bank ADB’s vision is an Asia and Pacific region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people. Despite the region’s many successes, it remains home to two-thirds of the world’s poor: 1.7 billion people who live on less than $2 a day, with 828 million struggling on less than $1.25 a day. ADB is committed to reducing poverty through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Based in Manila, ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org/economics Printed on recycled paper Printed in the Philippines