Identification of electric vehicle adoption and production factors based on an ecosystem perspective in Indonesia

Sasongko, Triyono Widi; Ciptomulyono, Udisubakti; Wirjodirdjo, Budisantoso; Prastawa, Andhika Article Identification of electric vehicle adoption and production factors based on an ecosystem perspective in Indonesia Cogent Business & Management Provided in Cooperation with: Taylor & Francis Group Suggested Citation: Sasongko, Triyono Widi; Ciptomulyono, Udisubakti; Wirjodirdjo, Budisantoso; Prastawa, Andhika (2024) : Identification of electric vehicle adoption and production factors based on an ecosystem perspective in Indonesia, Cogent Business & Management, ISSN 2331-1975, Taylor & Francis, Abingdon, Vol. 11, Iss. 1, pp. 1-22, https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2024.2332497 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/326179 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Cogent Business & Management ISSN: 2331-1975 (Online) Journal homepage: www.tandfonline.com/journals/oabm20 Identification of electric vehicle adoption and production factors based on an ecosystem perspective in Indonesia Triyono Widi Sasongko, Udisubakti Ciptomulyono, Budisantoso Wirjodirdjo & Andhika Prastawa To cite this article: Triyono Widi Sasongko, Udisubakti Ciptomulyono, Budisantoso Wirjodirdjo & Andhika Prastawa (2024) Identification of electric vehicle adoption and production factors based on an ecosystem perspective in Indonesia, Cogent Business & Management, 11:1, 2332497, DOI: 10.1080/23311975.2024.2332497 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2024.2332497 © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group Published online: 04 Apr 2024. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 4864 View related articles View Crossmark data Citing articles: 11 View citing articles Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=oabm20 Marketing | research article Cogent Business & ManageMent 2024, VoL. 11, no. 1, 2332497 Identification of electric vehicle adoption and production factors based on an ecosystem perspective in Indonesia triyono Widi sasongkoa,b, Udisubakti ciptomulyonoa, Budisantoso Wirjodirdjoa and andhika Prastawac aDepartment of industrial and systems engineering, institut teknologi sepuluh nopember, surabaya, indonesia; bResearch Center for sustainable Production system and Life Cycle assessment, national Research and innovation agency, south tangerang, indonesia; cResearch Center for energy Conversion and Conservation, national Research and innovation agency, south tangerang, indonesia ABSTRACT the program to replace fossil fuels powered vehicles with electric vehicles (eVs) is part of the global endeavor to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. in indonesia, eV adoption is still low. the eV market share is currently 1.47 percent of the 10 percent goal for 2022. Due to the vulnerability of local industries, including electric vehicle (eV) startup manufacturers, foreign-origin equipment manufacturers (OeMs) continue to dominate the indonesian automotive industry. although the government encourages automakers to produce and sell battery electric vehicles (BeVs), the incumbent prefers to introduce hybrid electric vehicles (heVs) and continues to prioritize internal combustion engine vehicles (iceVs). numerous studies have investigated the factors of eV adoption based on user perspective. however, few studies examine the factors influencing automakers to produce eVs, especially in developing nations like indonesia, where foreign OeMs dominate automotive manufacturers. this study analyzes the drivers and barriers to adopting and producing electric vehicles from an ecosystem perspective, including users, the eV industry, charging infrastructure providers, and the government using the Delphi method. according to the findings, in addition to the user’s ability and price barriers in the most demanded 7-seater eVs, the critical adoption and production factors are the effect of the OeM’s global strategy and the priority of government policies to promote eVs while maintaining the sustainability of the automotive industry. 1. Introduction the Paris agreement (Uncc, 2015) powers the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in various sectors. One related program in the transportation sector is replacing fossil fuel vehicles with internal combustion engine (ice) technology with electric vehicles (eV) of various varieties, including battery electric vehicles (BeV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PheV), and hybrid electric vehicles (heV). the transition to eVs also reduces fossil fuel consumption (iea, 2022). eVs are eco-green vehicles. the life cycle assessment results indicate that the total emissions of BeV are 39 tcO2e, the lowest compared with heV of 47 tcO2e and iceV of 55 tcO2e, even though the production phase emissions of BeV are higher than heV and iceV. Decarbonizing the electricity sector can reduce the use phase emissions of BeV (kearny, 2023). During the use phase, BeV, PheV, and heV are more eco-friendly than iceV (Xia & li, 2022). in the case of the United states, the european Union, china, and Japan, the life cycle assessment results indicate that BeV outperforms iceV by 30% to 80% in reducing © 2024 the author(s). Published by informa uK Limited, trading as taylor & Francis group CONTACT triyono Widi sasongko [email protected].ac.id Department of industrial and systems engineering, institut teknologi sepuluh nopember, surabaya, indonesia; Research Centre for sustainable Production system and Life Cycle assessment, national Research and innovation agency, south tangerang, indonesia; udisubakti Ciptomulyono [email protected].ac.id Department of industrial and systems engineering, institut teknologi sepuluh nopember, surabaya, indonesia https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2024.2332497 this is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. the terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent. ARTICLE HISTORY received 28 september 2023 revised 13 March 2024 accepted 14 March 2024 KEYWORDS electric vehicle; adoption; production; ecosystem; Delphi method; indonesia REVIEWING EDITOR len tiu Wright, De Montfort University Faculty of Business and law, United kingdom of great Britain and northern ireland SUBJECTS industry & industrial studies; industrial engineering & Manufacturing; transport & Vehicle engineering; clean tech; sustainable Development; Business, Management and accounting; environmental economics 2 t.W. sasOngkO etal. greenhouse gas emissions. By creating low-carbon power plants, eVs will be able to accomplish more significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the future (Peng et al., 2018; shafique & luo, 2022). By simulation, a 1% increase in electric vehicles will reduce cO2 emissions by 0.029% (Xu et al., 2021). the United states, europe, china, and Japan, the pioneering nations in the research and development of electric vehicles, launched this program more than three decades ago (Wu etal., 2018). the policy to support the implementation of the global eV program includes a long-term goal for eV market share and iceV ban, battery technology development, charging infrastructure deployment, and incentive policies (iea, 2022). While introducing eVs to the automotive market, governments directly subsidized manufacturers and consumers through enormous fiscal incentives, such as tax reduction or exemption (srivastava et al., 2022). some nations, including china and the United states, have implemented a radical policy requiring manufacturers to produce an allotment of eVs with a dual-credit policy (Peng & li, 2022). in recent years, the global market for electric vehicles for 4-wheeled electric cars of all types (BeV, heV, and PheV) has expanded exponentially. in 2020, 3.24 million electric cars were sold. it increased by 108% to 6.75 million units in 2021 and by 55% to 10.52 million in 2022. in addition, the global eV market share rose from 4.2% in 2020 to 8.3% in 2021 and 13% in 2022 (eV Volumes, 2023). china, europe, and america continue to dominate the eV market. china dominated world eV sales in 2022 with an increase of 82% from 2021 to 6,181 million units (58.74% of world eV sales), followed by europe with a 15% increase to 2,682 units (25.5% of world eV sales) and north america with a 48% increase to 1,108 units (10.53%) (eV Volumes, 2023). according to the diffusion of innovation theory (rogers, 2003), eV adoption is still at the innovator or early adopter stage in developing countries. in 2022, the eV volumes and market share in india were 56.491 units (1,19%), with the domination of hybrid eVs at about 1,08%. eV sales in thailand reached 34.474 units (2,80%), with hybrid eVs at about 1,71% (Marklines, 2023). in the same year, eV sales in indonesia were only 14.437 units (1,47%), with BeV sales around 0,99% (gaikindo, 2023). in indonesia, Presidential regulation no. 55 of 2019 started accelerating the battery-based eV (BeV) program (gOi, 2019). this policy includes derivative policies on the road map for developing the electric vehicle industry (kemenperin, 2022), charging station specifications and government procurement (kemenesDM, 2023), import tax exemption of incompleted knock-down for eV parts (kemenkeu, 2022), purchasing incentives (kemenkeu, 2023; kemenperin, 2023) and free of even-old driving policy in Jakarta. the quantitative target of eVs for 4-wheeled eVs is 400 thousand units by 2025, 9 million units by 2030, and 12 million units by 2035 (kemenperin, 2022). in contrast with the targets, the development of 4-wheeled eVs remains sluggish. the total market penetration of all-electric vehicles in indonesia in 2022 is only 14,437 eV units or 1.47%, a significant distance from the target of 400 thousand eV units by 2025. the low eV adoption in indonesia raises questions regarding the effectiveness of government policy in fostering eV adoption by users on the demand side, eV production by manufacturers, and eV charging service by eV charging infrastructure providers on the supply side. systematic steps of the decision-making process are needed to evaluate and recommend more suitable policies. the measures include the intelligence, design, and choice phases introduced by hebert a. simon (Mintrom, 2015). identifying the most significant eV adoption and production factors, both driver and barrier factors, in the eV ecosystem is essential in the intelligence phase as the feeding for the next stage of the decision-making process. numerous studies have investigated the factors influencing users to employ eVs in developing countries, such (Febransyah, 2021; novizayanti et al., 2021; setiawan et al., 2022) in case of indonesia, (hoang et al., 2022) in case of Vietnam, (asadi et al., 2022) in case of Malaysia, (goel etal., 2021; k V et al., 2022; shetty etal., 2020) in the case of india. however, few studies discuss the adoption and production factors influencing the other subsystems of the eV ecosystem, like eV manufacturers, charging infrastructure providers, and government, as one eV ecosystem, especially under the condition that foreign automotive manufacturers dominate domestic eV production. in the case of Qatar, the country does not have domestic auto production (al-shaiba et al., 2023). Mohamad & songthaveephol (2020) only focus on the challenges of socio-technical transitions in the automotive industry, not considering other subsystems. hamzah et al. (2022) only focus on consumer perceptions and strategic frameworks among asean countries. in developing nations, foreign original equipment manufacturers (OeMs) dominate local automotive manufacturers and have a global strategy to produce eVs besides iceVs. although the government encourages prioritizing BeVs, the incumbent automakers prefer to introduce heVs and continue cOgent BUsiness & ManageMent 3 prioritizing iceVs. conversely, the government continues safeguarding the iceV industry due to its substantial contribution to the gross domestic product, 1.45% in 2022, with a growth of 10.67% from the previous year (BPs-statistics indonesia, 2024). government policies to promote the adoption and production of eVs must consider several balancing factors, such as budgetary constraints and the equitable treatment of other social groups. the research question is: what factors influence the users to adopt eVs, the eV manufacturers to produce eVs, the charging infrastructure providers to provide charging service, and the government to foster the eV ecosystem in the context of the eV manufacturers are global players of OeMs? therefore, this research will cover that gap with a more systematic analysis from many angles. this paper’s main contribution is comprehensively analyzing the relationship between the eV subsystems in one eV ecosystem to identify eV adoption and production factors under the condition that foreign automotive manufacturers dominate. thus, the research objective is to identify eV adoption and production factors that influence the interests and perceptions of subsystems or stakeholders in the eV ecosystem in indonesia. given that electric vehicles are a recent addition to the automotive industry, this study employs the Delphi approach to gather insights from a panel of experts. 2. Literature review 2.1. EV ecosystem initially, the ecosystem is an interaction between biological systems, but it can also be applied to other complex systems (OeD, 2023). now, the ecosystem has some perspectives, such as the multi-actor network ecosystem, the industrial ecosystem, the business ecosystem, and the integration of these. Multi-actor represents the many parties that become a subsystem of the ecosystem. the actors are interrelated, with variables as a link between actors related to several aspects of management, industry, and business (tsujimoto etal., 2018). the ecosystem comprises actors, institutions, activities, technology, innovative performance, and relationships. the relationships are complementary and substitute (granstrand & holgersson, 2020). companies can take the lead by acting as pioneers if they can respond to ecosystem growth dynamics and implement strategies and processes that reach out to key players, including regulators (amir & Prabawani, 2023). From a new perspective, a business ecosystem is an essential strategic management stream with a new paradigm in innovation and collaboration (rifa’i et al., 2023). Based on the literature, table 1 summarizes the subsystems of the eV ecosystem related to eV adoption and production. in the eV ecosystem context, the subsystem focuses on the four subsystems: users/ adopters, eV manufacturers, charging infrastructure providers, and the government. in the case of indonesia, in 2019, the central government initiated accelerating the battery-electric vehicle program with the involvement of several ministries and state-owned enterprises to foster eV production by eV manufacturers, charging services by charging infrastructure providers, and eV adoption by users (gOi, 2019). Figure 1 provides a more comprehensive depiction of the various subsystems that need to be considered during the development of the eV ecosystem. the eV users are divided into three segments based on their ability and willingness to buy eVs. First, lifestyle customers who care about the brand, premium features, and eVs are not the first car owners. second, responsible customers who care about environmental aspects and provide early promotion of eVs to encourage and create eV popularity, such as for official cars, public transportation such as bus rapid transit, taxis, online motorcycle taxis, and tourism. third, economic customers, namely the majority of individual users and private companies, buy eVs based on financial calculations, such as total cost of ownership (Wu etal., 2018). the eV users or the eV adopters in the transition stage in developing countries are the early adopters (rogers, 2003). lifestyle users dominate the early adopters compared with responsibility users and economy users. the subsystem of eV manufacturers consists of the new eV manufacturers and the automotive manufacturers that produce both iceVs and eVs, including global and local OeMs supported by the supply chain of materials, batteries, and other components. in the case of indonesia, global OeMs are the main actors in the automotive industry. the local startup eV manufacturers and their r&D support face challenges related to technology readiness and mate bottlenecks in integration, safety, and commercialization (Maghfiroh et al., 2021). 4 t.W. sasOngkO etal. the charging infrastructure subsystem consists of the operator of public charging stations and other charging points at home, office, hotels, apartments, malls, restaurants, rest areas, parking parks, etc. as a chicken-and-egg problem, the rate of eV adoption is contingent upon the availability of eVcs (electric vehicle charging station) and vice versa (Brozynski & leibowicz, 2022). initially, the government assigned the state electricity company to build and operate charging stations to overcome the problem. the government subsystem includes national and local governments, r&D agencies/universities, and state-owned enterprises. as policymakers, the government publishes eV-related regulations at the macro, meso, and micro levels, representing the strategic, tactical, and operational policies. the policies consist of consumer-oriented policies, producer-oriented policies, and infrastructure-oriented policies. Figure 2 adapts the conceptual model by sasongko etal. (2022) to describe the relationships between the four subsystems in the eV ecosystem. the government provides fiscal and nonfiscal policies to drive the development of eVs. the adopters build awareness of the technology, economy, and environmental aspects of eVs, charging infrastructure, and government policy. Meanwhile, eV manufacturers and charging infrastructure providers make products and services under user needs and government support. identifying the critical eV adoption and production factors might help policymakers foster eV adoption and production with relevant strategies and policies. subsystems or stakeholders in the eV ecosystem must cooperate broadly, cooperation that must be fought due to the resistance of the existing socio-technical system. they must create protected spaces until the new socio-technical system matures enough to face the current regime (Bakker et al., 2014). Based on the multi-level perspective approach, eV transition is a nonlinear process resulting from a circle of mutual influence between three levels. the first level is niches, the location of radical innovations of Table 1. grouping of subsystems in the eV ecosystem. subsystem terminology/Reference Role interest users/adopters iCeV users (setiawan etal., 2022), consumer (Brozynski & Leibowicz, 2022); eV purchaser (Zolfagharian et al., 2020) the users of iCeVs are being specifically targeted and influenced to transition from using iCeVs to eVs. the users intend to adopt eVs based on their perceived appeal, including technology performance, affordability, operation costs, and ease of charging. eV Manufacturers eV manufacturers, car manufacturers (Bakker et al., 2014), automotive companies (setiawan et al., 2022) the eV manufacturers produce eVs in response to potential users’ demand and purchasing capacity. to ensure the long-term viability of their operations, makers of eVs and iCeVs must develop a comprehensive and equitable approach. Charging infrastructure Providers Charging station providers (setiawan et al., 2022), infrastructure firms (Brozynski & Leibowicz, 2022) the charging infrastructure providers offer services to facilitate the continued mobility of electric vehicles. government support is crucial for the substantial investment required in charging infrastructure. government government (setiawan et al., 2022); national and local governments (Bakker et al., 2014); policy maker (Brozynski & Leibowicz, 2022) the government facilitates the implementation of eV programs through various policies, encompassing fiscal and nonfiscal measures. the government drives the iCeV to eV transition to mitigate emissions and minimize fuel consumption effectively. Figure 1. the eV ecosystem and the subsystems. cOgent BUsiness & ManageMent 5 eVs to seek their forms. the second level is socio-technical regimes, where established systems and rules that stabilize the current system of the iceV industry, regulation, and user acceptance are predominant. the third level is socio-technical landscapes, the external factors of the Paris agreement, and the eV acceleration program influencing regimes and niches (lin & sovacool, 2020). 2.2. Identification of EV adoption and production factors eV adoption and production are positively influenced by the driver factors, which include benefits, opportunities, and others. the barrier factors, including costs, hazards, and other factors, have a negative impact on the adoption and production of electric vehicles. 2.2.1. EV adoption factors from user perspectives eV adoption benefits for users include technical and economic benefits related to operational costs, fiscal incentives, nonfiscal incentives, and environmental benefits. technical benefits for users are comfortable and safe driving and easy maintenance (novizayanti et al., 2021; sanguesa et al., 2021). Driving with an eV is satisfying because there are no distracting sounds, and safety features give the rider peace of mind. eV maintenance is more manageable than iceV due to longer maintenance time intervals and fewer maintenance items. the development of battery technology strongly influences the development of eVs. For eVs, batteries are critical, as these will determine the vehicle’s autonomy because battery technology significantly affects mileage, charging speed, and user acceptance of eVs (sanguesa et al., 2021). economic benefits for users related to operational costs included low charging and maintenance costs (Bhosale et al., 2022; hagman et al., 2016). the price of charging eV batteries at home and charging stations is much lower than the fuel cost. eV maintenance costs are much lower than iceV maintenance costs, let alone the battery warranty, up to 8 years, in the case of indonesia. economic benefits for users related to fiscal incentives are purchase price incentives (Dong & Zheng, 2022; Jenn etal., 2018; Jung etal., 2021; kumar etal., 2021; secinaro etal., 2020). in the case of indonesia, there is an incentive to purchase 2-wheeled eVs with a local content level of ≥ 40% and eV conversion of rp 7 million (kemenperin, 2023). Other incentives for purchasing eVs are value-added tax (Vat) reduction incentives. For the purchase of electric cars and buses with a local content level ≥ 40%, the government-borne Vat is 10% out of 11%, so only 1% must be paid by the user. For the purchase of electric cars and buses with local content levels of 20% to <40%, the government bears Vat 5%, so the user only pays 6% (kemenkeu, 2023). sales tax on luxury goods incentives are also attractive fiscal Figure 2. the conceptual relation model of the eV ecosystem. 6 t.W. sasOngkO etal. incentives for users (Deuten et al., 2020; llopis-albert et al., 2021). in the case of indonesia, there is a sales tax on luxury goods of 0% for BeVs and less than 10% for heVs and PheVs (gOi, 2021). there is a reduction in the title transfer tax for electric vehicles by up to 90% and a reduction in the yearly tax for electric cars by 90% (gOJ, 2021). night electricity rate incentives also offer some benefits for users to charge the eVs in their homes (Wang etal., 2019). Pln (state electricity company of indonesia) provides a 30% discount for electricity usage from 22.00 to 05.00 and special prices for connecting and adding power related to home charging (antaranews, 2022). the benefits of nonfiscal policies for users make eVs more attractive (lu et al., 2022), such as driving with eVs in Jakarta is exempt from the odd-even policy. environmental benefits for users refer to eco-friendly vehicles. Using eVs will contribute users to the reduction of air emissions that pollute the environment (kumar et al., 2021; tarei et al., 2021). long-term economic opportunities for users include lower total cost of ownership (tcO), and eV prices are becoming more affordable. the total cost of Ownership is getting lower due to the low operational and maintenance costs compared to iceV, even though eV is more expensive than iceV (Bhosale etal., 2022; coffman etal., 2017; kumar etal., 2021; tarei etal., 2021). eV prices are getting more affordable. Due to decreased production costs, eV manufacturers can sell eVs at increasingly affordable prices and compete with iceVs. the projected price of batteries will fall from $137 per kWh in 2020 to $80 per kWh in 2026 and $60 per kWh in 2029, respectively (BloombergneF, 2021). eV adoption costs and barriers for users include technical, economic, and charging infrastructure barriers. technical barriers for users are battery range anxiety, performance anxiety, safety anxiety, and lack of model availability. Battery range anxiety related to limited mileage due to battery capacity (kongklaew et al., 2021; kumar etal., 2021; novizayanti et al., 2021; tarei et al., 2021). Performance anxiety concerns related to eV operating performance, such as speed, road, flood conditions, reliability, etc. (abbasi et al., 2021; Deuten etal., 2020; huang & Qian, 2021; Zolfagharian etal., 2020). safety anxiety concerns related to eV safety aspects, such as burning batteries and the dysfunction of system software (abbasi et al., 2021; Deuten et al., 2020; huang & Qian, 2021). lack of model availability refers to limited eV model variations that suit user needs, including the number of seats and affordability (novizayanti et al., 2021). Maintenance anxiety concerns the ease of finding maintenance workshops and the availability of eV components and spare parts (novizayanti et al., 2021). economic barriers for users focus on eV and iceV price differences. the price of eVs compared to iceV prices in comparable vehicle classes is still significantly high, based on research results (Bitencourt et al., 2021; huang & Qian, 2021; llopis-albert et al., 2021; novizayanti et al., 2021; tarei et al., 2021). charging infrastructure barriers for users include a lack of charging stations and chargingtime constraints. there is a lack of charging stations since there are still a few charging stations and uneven distribution of charging station locations (Broadbent et al., 2021; hu et al., 2020; liang et al., 2022; Zolfagharian et al., 2020). charging time constraints related to charging time at the charging station is still long due to queues and charging times (liang et al., 2022; Patyal etal., 2021; secinaro etal., 2020). long-term economic risks for users include re-sale anxiety because there is no certainty about the selling value of used eVs, including the price of used eV batteries that theoretically can be reused for other products and recycled (kongklaew et al., 2021; Patyal et al., 2021). 2.2.2. EV adoption and production factors for EV manufacturer perspectives economic benefits for eV manufacturers include tax holidays, import tax exemption for incompletely knocked Down (ikD), and purchase price incentives. in the case of indonesia, a tax holiday of 5 years to 20 years, according to the investment value for its main industrial components, targeting the steel or non-steel metal industry and its integrated derivatives, nickel smelters, and battery production (kemenkeu, 2020). import tax exemption for incompletely knocked Down (ikD) policy benefits eV production. Vat is exempted on mining goods, including nickel ore as raw material for making batteries. Vat is exempted on imports and acquisition of capital goods in the form of machinery and factory equipment for the motor vehicle industry. the government sets a special tariff of zero percent import Duty for motor vehicles imported in incomplete knock-down condition (ikD) (kemenkeu, 2022). For eV manufacturers, eV purchase price incentives will further increase eV demand and purchases (kumar et al., 2021; secinaro et al., 2020). cOgent BUsiness & ManageMent 7 as an effort to encourage investment in BeV manufacturing development in indonesia, during the BeV factory construction process, BeV manufacturers are allowed to import BeVs in the form of completely built-up (cBU) and completely knocked down (ckD) with 0% import duty and the luxury goods sales tax (PPnBM) 0% until the end of 2025. Furthermore, manufacturers must meet domestic BeV production provisions minimum volume as imported cBU or ‘production debt’ with local content of 40% until the end of 2026, 60% in 2027-2029, and 80% in 2030 and more (gOi, 2023; kemeninves, 2023). long-term opportunities for eV manufacturers include increased potential demand as eV prices become more affordable and car ownership is still low. the projected price of batteries will fall from Us$ 132 in 2021 to Us$ 80 per kWh in 2026 (BloombergneF, 2021), so eV production costs will become lower. hopefully, eV prices will become more affordable, and the intention to buy eVs increase, too. another fact shows that indonesia’s car ownership is only 99 units per 1000 population (Business-indonesia, 2022)), so the eV demand will increase significantly with economic growth. technical barriers for eV manufacturers include the dependence on importing raw materials and critical components and lack of industry readiness. limited materials and parts depend on imports, especially batteries and major electronic components like semiconductors. the lack of local industry readiness is a significant barrier (Maghfiroh et al., 2021). 2.2.3. EVCS operation factors from charging infrastructure provider perspectives economic benefits for charging station providers include simplifying the charging station business model and the initial market of charging station policy. simplifying the charging station business model makes the charging station provision more attractive (huang etal., 2022; laMonaca & ryan, 2022). in indonesia, every charging station location can only operate one type of charging device: type 2, ccs2, or chadeMO (kemenesDM, 2023) and create the initial market policy. Operational barriers for charging infrastructure providers are limited electricity supply in some areas (tarei et al., 2021). 2.2.4. EV adoption and production factors from government perspectives the government has a role in setting policies, both fiscal and nonfiscal policy, to drive the growth of eVs (coffman et al., 2017; kumar & alok, 2020). For the government, the economic benefits of eV adoption include reducing imported fuel and environmental benefits. increased eV adoption will reduce fuel use and decrease fuel imports. increased eV adoption will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, with the realization of clean energy, clean air quality, and environmentally friendly (gOi, 2019; lopez-arboleda et al., 2021). the development of eVs will grow new industries, namely the supply chain network industry, such as the battery raw material industry, the battery industry, the electric motor industry, the it industry, etc. (gOi, 2019; lopez-arboleda et al., 2021). the provision of eV purchase incentives in the case of indonesia has several limitations, including budget constraints, and there is still a debate regarding the feasibility of target segmentation of incentives (subsidy) recipients (Brozynski & leibowicz, 2022; Patyal etal., 2021). there is still low public awareness of eVs because there is still a lack of comprehensive socialization related to eVs, such as technical, economic, social, and environmental aspects (kumar et al., 2021; tarei et al., 2021). 3. Methodology the literature review identifies the drivers and barriers to eV adoption and production factors. the subsequent work is to screen these criteria so that they are indeed essential and meet the factual condition in indonesia. this filtering method uses the Delphi method. the adoption of eVs into the automotive market is a study of a new product. the public’s awareness of eVs is still limited. in the Delphi method, the expert panel opinion or judgment represents all stakeholder elements in eV adoption and production. the Delphi method is suitable for gathering expert panel opinions, as it effectively incorporates subjective perspectives and iterative feedback. the inherent anonymity of experts affords them the freedom to share their ideas without constraint, mitigating any potential dominance or impact of opinions. the active participation of professionals throughout the entire process facilitates identifying and implementing a compromised and effective solution (ciptomulyo, 2001). 14 t.W. sasOngkO etal. in particular, the battery range is not an excessive concern because now, eVs with prices above rp. 700 million, or Us$ 46.667, has been able to travel above 500 km. Meanwhile, the eV, with a cost of rp 300 million or Us$ 20.000, has been able to travel a distance above 300 km. so, the obstacle is not in the battery range, but having a long battery range is only available on eVs at costly prices. a cumbersome barrier is the eV and iceV price difference, where the price of eV is still at the premium price level and costs more than 1.5 times the price of iceV with a commensurate class. the result agrees with the other research results (Broadbent etal., 2021). in indonesia, the price of the 5-seater BeV which exceeds rp. 700 million (approximately Us$ 46,667), is met by a market share of less than 1% of automotive consumers. While the price of a 4-seater BeV, which is around rp. 300 million, or $20,000, is nominally affordable for most automobile owners. Despite this, the price only affords a small-capacity eV, which must compete with iceVs that offer seven-passenger seating and more significant cargo space at comparable prices. the lack of charging stations still affected eV adoption as the charging infrastructure barriers. Meanwhile, mandatory policy instruments have not maximally encouraged the potential for charging stations in public areas such as office buildings, shopping centers, hotels, apartments, and other public facilities. currently, the procurement of charging stations is still purely a B-to-B business model. the survey results are also interestingly related to eV risks for users, where performance degradation and re-sale anxiety are not significant risks. table 9 summarizes eV adoption variables depending on a user subsystem. 5.2. EV production and adoption factors according to EV manufacturers For eV Manufacturers, there are some attractive drivers for producing eVs in indonesia. the economic benefits include the provision of a corporate income tax reduction facility or tax holiday, import tax exemption for ikD, purchase price incentives, and increased sales of domestically produced eVs. the environmental benefits for eV manufacturers are becoming a green industry. eV manufacturers’ social benefits are due to improved brand image. the long-term opportunities include increased potential demand as eV prices become more affordable, high likely demand because car ownership is still low, and the stock availability of eVs with various variances. however, there are currently technical barriers for eV manufacturers in the form of dependence on imports of raw materials and critical components and a lack of local industry readiness. Meanwhile, the limitation of production capability is not a critical technical barrier because the development of production facilities is in progress in the early stages. in the future, eV manufacturers face severe risks because there is a competitive risk with iceV manufacturers where the government still maintains the iceV industry, and there is no obligation for iceV manufacturers to produce eVs. incumbent gradually makes and sells heV and PheV, not BeV, as mandated in the Presidential Decree (gOi, 2019). after all, the iceV industry’s contribution to gDP is still high, and the iceV industry absorbs a lot of labor. table 10 resumes eV production factors based on a subsystem of eV manufacturers. 5.3. EV adoption according to charging infrastructure providers regarding the charging station, some benefits are starting to be felt. the new regulation simplifies the charging station business model. the policy for shaping the initial charging station market is where the government gives Pt Pln the task of building charging stations at various points in indonesia. Benefits for electrical companies, especially Pt Pln, because eV development and charging station construction will positively impact the absorption of oversupplied electricity supply. in the long term, there are also long-term opportunities for charging station providers because the business will be more profitable. Table 8. Reliability test. Reference Value Cronbach’s alpha Value item number Result 0,7 0,884 58 Reliable cOgent BUsiness & ManageMent 15 For current charging station providers, the operational barriers for charging infrastructure providers are because the business is not yet profitable. Meanwhile, the limited power supply is not an obstacle because there is still an excess electricity supply in various regions. Meanwhile, the charging station safety risks also do not affect the provision of charging stations because electricity implementation standards at charging stations in indonesia have paid great attention to safety standards. table 11 resumes eV adoption factors based on a subsystem of charging infrastructure providers. 5.4. EV production and adoption factors according to the government the government strongly encourages eV adoption because potential benefits include reduced fuel imports, reduced transportation sector emissions, and the opportunity to grow a new eV component supplier industry. the dynamics of the eV market might drive the government to implement and exercise a new user-oriented policy like toll tariff exemption or reduction. it’s just that currently, the government faces policy barriers, namely budget limitations of eV purchase incentives and a lack of socialization of the importance of eVs, so the misunderstanding of eV development programs is still problematic. in the future, the development of the eV industry will affect the iceV industry’s sustainability due to eVs as a disruptive technology, potentially undermining the iceV industry’s dominance. local startup eV industry sustainability faces risks because the industry outcompetes. OeMs from abroad will continue to dominate the automotive industry in indonesia. table 12 resumes eV adoption and production factors based on a subsystem of government. 6. Conclusions identifying eV adoption and production factors under the domination of foreign OeMs in the automotive industry benefits the government by providing a more effective policy to drive eV growth in indonesia. Users have previously believed that the technical quality of eVs manufactured by OeMs meets international standards. thus, the technical merits of eVs are widely acknowledged. there has not been excessive concern regarding technical constraints, both current and prospective risks. Users also consider the Table 9. Resume of eV adoption factors based on subsystem of users. Drivers Barriers economic Benefits economic Costs Low operating cost eV-iCeV price difference Purchase incentives infrastructure Barriers Yearly tax incentives Lack of charging stations economic opportunities Low total cost of ownership eV prices are more affordable. operational Benefits Comfortable and easy maintenance excluded from odd-even policy environmental Benefits eco-friendly vehicle Table 10. Resume of eV production factors based on subsystem of eV manufacturers. Drivers Barriers economic Benefits operational Barriers tax holiday Dependence on the import of raw materials and critical components import tax exemption for incompletely Knocked Down increased sales of domestically produced eVs economic opportunities economic Risks increased sales of eV prices have become more affordable, and various variants are available. the competitive risk with iCeV manufacturers environmental Benefits Contribute to becoming a green industry. social Benefits improved brand image 16 t.W. sasOngkO etal. economics of eV operation to be favorable, as charging costs are significantly less than iceV fuel costs, maintenance costs, and total cost of ownership. current eV manufacturers offer numerous BeV models ranging from 300 km (city car) to more than 500 km (sedan) on a single charge. the range of available batteries is expanding as battery technology develops. therefore, battery range is a function of eV price and is not a barrier to eV adoption. these technical and economic benefits and some fiscal incentives cannot accelerate the adoption of eVs. the major barriers to eV adoption for consumers are the significant price difference between eVs and iceVs and the lack of charging station networks, particularly for intercity travel. BeV buyers are still in the early adopter users or lifestyle users segmentation; those who buy BeVs are not first owners but are second and third-hand car owners, etc. the majority of car consumer choices in indonesia are MPVs with seven passengers. the culture of eid homecoming and year-end holidays in the region is why 7-seater cars are more in demand, while BeV-type MPVs like this are not yet available in the market, especially at prices not far from rp 400 million. the argument also explains why the innova 7-seater Zenix heV type is in demand, with sales in 2023 of 52,563 units (gaikindo, 2024). several fiscal incentives for eV manufacturers encourage investors to invest and produce eVs in indonesia, particularly the possibility of future demand growth. however, there are presently several obstacles, including the small share of the eV market resulting from the transition process and the constraints of high production costs. significant components, such as batteries, electric motors, controllers, software, and semiconductor components, must be imported from the global supply chain that controls today’s eV industry, which can be time-consuming. eV manufacturers must also compute the risks associated with competing with the iceV industry. the indonesian government policy continues to prioritize the growth of the iceV industry because the contribution of iceV to gDP and employment remains high. at the same time, there are no indications that the development of the eV industry will supplant that of the iceV industry. in addition, the government has not enacted a policy mandating that iceV manufacturers produce eVs with a minimum target share, as have other pioneer nations on eV development like china with a dual-credit policy (Peng & li, 2022; Yang et al., 2022). even though the regulations for managing charging stations have been simplified for charging infrastructure providers, the private sector has no interest in conducting business in this field. in the early stages, the government decided to entrust Pt Pln with the construction of charging stations at various locations while taking advantage of Pln’s still excessive electricity supply. Private parties operating charging stations are still limited and strictly B to B, for example, collaborating with Pln or trans Jakarta to construct charging stations for their electric buses. suppose solid policies require office buildings, trade centers, rest areas, hotels, apartments, and other public areas to construct charging stations as part of their business units or facilities. For instance, hotels with charging station facilities will be more desirable in the future than hotels that do not offer charging stations, either for a fee or as a ‘bonus’ for staying there. Table 11. Resume of eV adoption factors based on subsystem of charging infrastructure providers. Drivers Barriers economic Benefits Costs simplification of charging station business model eVCs business is not yet profitable the initial market of charging station policy economic opportunities the charging station business will be more profitable. Table 12. Resume of eV production factors based on subsystem of government. Drivers Barriers economic Benefits economic Risks Reduced imported fuel iCeV industry sustainability risks the growing eV component supplier industry Local startup eV industry sustainability risks environmental Benefits Reduced emissions from the transportation sector Policy opportunities Policy Barriers new policy implementation opportunities Limitations of eV-related incentives budget Lack of socialization of the importance of eV cOgent BUsiness & ManageMent 17 the acceleration of the eV program provides significant benefits to the government in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and decreasing fuel imports, as well as numerous opportunities for the emergence of new eV-supporting industries and the recruitment of new employees with eV expertise. nevertheless, government policies on incentives or subsidies are limited by budgetary constraints. Moreover, a fairer and more proportional formula for transferring petroleum subsidies to eV subsidies has not been identified. Meanwhile, public communication about eVs and the benefits of eV subsidies and incentives has not been optimized. the government estimates a substantial risk if eVs as a disruptive technology are not managed appropriately. the dependence on and dread of the collapse of the iceV industry, as well as the fact that the majority of iceV industries are global OeMs in a region where investment competition with neighboring countries such as thailand and Vietnam is intensifying, have led the government to maintain a cautious stance on eV policy. the finding is significant because, with moderate policies, reaching the ambitious target of eV market share in the coming years is difficult. the subsequent research for fostering eV adoption should focus on more powerful and effective user-oriented policies for narrowing eV-iceV price differences, producer-oriented policies for eV manufacturers to produce the MPV type of BeV, and infrastructure-oriented policies attracting investors to emphasize the deployment of additional charging infrastructure facilities. 6.1. Theoretical contribution the results of this study are expected to make a novel contribution in the form of eV adoption and production factors under ecosystems as part of the intelligent phase of a decision-making process approach that considers the limitations of nations with weak automotive industries, unstructured user segmentation targets, and constrained resources for eV policy implementation. theoretically, the findings of this study can help with the decision-making process for creating new technologically advanced items and adopting new technologies that rely on infrastructure (infrastructure-dependent technology adoption). the segmentation of early adopters makes the new technology prevalent in the market’s early stages of product assortments. subsidy and incentives are essential in creating demand and supply of various types and models in the range of users’ needs and competitive prices. 6.2. Managerial implication the findings of this study will be helpful to policymakers as they develop strategies to raise the market share of electric vehicles and strengthen the capacity of the domestic electric vehicle sector with an organized and systematic decision-making process. in the transition stage, the early adopters help introduce the product to the market. however, the most extensive customer segmentation is the economy users. the condition implies that eV manufacturers’ policymakers should set the business strategy to produce MPV (multi-purpose vehicle) eVs with narrower price gaps than iceVs. government policy should support the users with several incentives and an awareness campaign on the sustainability aspect of eVs, as well as technical, economic, environmental, and social factors. the government should provide several fiscal and nonfiscal incentives to attract investors to produce eVs in domestic sites under the local content-based policy and to increase the deployment of charging stations to reduce users’ driving anxiety. 6.3. Limitations and Future research the research can only pinpoint the critical variables affecting eV production and uptake in indonesia. the elements have not been compared. Future research may classify the factors affecting eV adoption into benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks (BOcr) and use pairwise comparisons to determine which factors are more important. the BOcr structure, according to saaty & Vargas (2006), will aid in the decision-making process. 18 t.W. sasOngkO etal. Authors’ contributions the conception and design (tWs, Uc); analysis and interpretation of the data (tWs, Uc, BW); the drafting of the paper (tWs, aP); revising it critically for intellectual content (tWs, Uc, BW, aP); the final approval of the version to be published (Uc, BW, aP); and all authors agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work. Disclosure statement the authors declare no conflict of interest. Funding this work was supported by the national research and innovation agency, indonesia, under scholarship number sk DBr no 61/ii.2.3/kP/2023. About the authors Triyono Widi Sasongko is a doctoral student at the Department of industrial and systems engineering, institut teknologi sepuluh nopember (it s) surabaya, indonesia. he is a researcher at the research center for sustainable Production system and life cycle assessment, national research and innovation agency, south tangerang, indonesia. his research interests are sustainability transportation system, electric vehicle ecosystem, and industrial policy. Udisubakti Ciptomulyono is a Professor at the Department of industrial and systems engineering, institut teknologi sepuluh nopember (it s), surabaya, indonesia. his research interests are multiple criteria decision-making, system modeling and analysis, management of technology, sustainable manufacturing, and environmental management. Budisantoso Wirjodirdjo is a Professor and senior lecturer at the Department of industrial and systems engineering, institut teknologi sepuluh nopember (it s), surabaya, indonesia. his research interests are quantitative modeling and analysis, system dynamics methodology, operation research, and industrial systems policy analysis. Andhika Prastawa is a researcher at the research center for energy conversion and conservation, national research and innovation agency, south tangerang, indonesia. his area of interest and expertise is in technology and policies for renewable energy systems, power systems, and energy conservation. Data availability statement the data supporting the findings of this study are available within the article. References abbasi, h., Johl, s., shaari, Z., Moughal, W., Mazhar, M., Musarat, M., rafiq, W., Farooqi, a., & Borovkov, a. (2021). consumer motivation by using unified theory of acceptance and use of technology towards electric vehicles. 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