European Monetary Integration: Problems and Prospects

Hodgman, Donald R. A icle Eu opean Mone a y In eg a ion: P oblems and P ospec s K edi und Kapi al P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: Duncke & Humblo , Be lin Sugges ed Ci a ion: Hodgman, Donald R. (1972) : Eu opean Mone a y In eg a ion: P oblems and P ospec s, K edi und Kapi al, ISSN 0023-4591, Duncke & Humblo , Be lin, Vol. 5, Iss. 3, pp. 249-268, h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/292681 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen (insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en, gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e. Te ms o use: Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal and schola ly pu poses. You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public. I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence. h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/ Eu opean Mone a y In eg a ion: P oblems and P ospec s Von Donald R. Hodgman, U bana On Feb ua y 9, 1971 he Council o he Eu opean Economic Com- muni ies app o ed a modi ied e sion o he We ne Commi ee plan o mone a y and economic union among he membe s a es. The de- cla ed objec i e o he app o ed plan is o achie e mone a y and eco- nomic union wi hin one decade. The model p oposed is ha o a ede al union cha ac e ized by a common cu ency, ully coo dina ed cen al- bank and na ional-budge a y policy, absence o in e nal ba ie s o he ee low o labo , capi al, goods and se ices, a uni ied s ance on mone a y and economic issues unde nego ia ion wi h coun ies no membe s o he union, adequa e cen alized powe o decision o de e - mine and implemen policies in he abo e a eas, and es ablishmen o poli ical machine y o gua an ee democ a ic con ol o e his cen alized powe o decision. The a ac i eness o his model ha i p o ides in p inciple a solu ion o a numbe o exa ious p oblems ha ouble he membe s a es o he E. E. C. while i simul aneously ep esen s he logical ul illmen o he p ocess o economic in eg a ion begun in 1958 and p esen ly exp essed in a cus oms union and common ag icul u al policy. The pu pose o his pape is o examine ce ain o he mone a y and inancical p oposals and aims con ained in he plan o ha ha e eme ged since i s adop ion in o de o assess hei implica ions o he economies o he pa icipa ing s a es and, whe e app op ia e, o he ole o he E. E. C. in in e na ional mone a y a ai s. Sec ion I b ie ly calls o mind he b oade backg ound o majo goals and me hods p o- posed in he plan o mone a y and economic union wi h emphasis on some key issues ha eme ged in he discussions ha led o i s adop ion and ound exp ession in he plan. Agains his b oade pe spec i e Sec ion II analyzes ou in e ela ed mone a y o inancial issues aised by he plan. These a e (1) policy ega ding he lexibili y o exchange a es, (2) con ols o e in e na ional capi al mo emen s, (3) he c ea ion 16a K edi und Kapi al 3/1972 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 250 Donald R. Hodgman o a Eu opean Rese e Fund, and (4) he ha moniza ion o domes ic mone a y ins umen s and policies. Sec ion III d aws some gene al con- clusions conce ning he p ospec s o he plan o mone a y and eco- nomic in eg a ion. I. The Council-app o ed plan o mone a y and economic in eg a ion wi hin he E. E. C. es ablishes ce ain ag eed p inciples o p ocedu e, calls o a a ie y o speci ic measu es o be unde aken, and designa es o he issues o u he s udy and consul a ion. The majo disag eemen among he membe s a es in he discussions p eceding he plan's adop ion a ose o e he ques ion o iming o s eps owa ds mone a y union by educing he bands wi hin which in a- Communi y exchange pa i ies may luc ua e in ela ion o he iming o e ec i e mu ual consul a ion conce ning agg ega e demand managemen by means o na ional budge a y and cen al banking p ocedu es. This issue was comp omised, h ough no pe manen ly esol ed, by accep - ance o he p inciple ha mone a y s eps and "ha moniza ion" o eco- nomic policies in o he a eas should mo e ahead in synch onized ashion. Mo eo e , commi men o he na owing o exchange pa i y sp eads was unde aken on an expe imen al and hence e e sible a he han mo e pe manen basis. Fu he , a sa egua d p o ision was included pe mi ing he en i e p og am o mone a y measu es including na owe bands and medium e m inancial aid o be suspended a he ed o i e yea s om he beginning o he i s phase should he E. E. C. Council, on he basis o a e iew by he Commission o bo h mone a y and eco- nomic-coo dina ion measu es o be submi ed be o e May 1, 1973, de- e mine ha he necessa y deg ee o pa allelism be ween he wo ypes o measu es had no been achie ed. An issue closely ela ed o ha o pa allel iming in mone a y meas- u es and hose o economic coo dina ion is ha o he deg ee o s abili y o lexibili y in exchange a es wi hin he Communi y and be ween he membe s a es o he Communi y and he es o he wo ld, especially he Uni ed S a es. The plan app o ed by he Council commi s he membe s a es o he p inciple o ixed exchange a es in e nally and as ega ds he in e na ional mone a y sys em. In he pe spec i e o e en s ha ha e shaken he in e na ional mone a y sys em du ing 1971 he e appea s o be mo e gene al ag eemen wi hin he Communi y han be o e on he desi abili y o g ea e a e lexibili y and wide bands OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 Eu opean Mone a y In eg a ion : P oblems and P ospec s 251 be ween exchange a es o Communi y cu encies and he es o he wo ld. By con as , he ecen ag eemen o Ma ch 21, 1972 among membe s a es o na ow he bands wi hin which a es o exchange among Communi y cu encies may mo e beginning Ap il 24, 1972 appea s o ea i m he commi men o he p inciple o ixed a es wi hin he Communi y con ained in he Council-app o ed plan o mone a y union. I should beno ed, howe e , ha when na owed o he p oposed wid h o 2.25 pe cen on Ap il 24, 1972 he band o Communi y cu encies will emain wide han he 1.50 pe cen band ha p e ailed in p ac ice among Communi y cu encies unde he e ms o he IMF ag eemen p io o he gene al abandonmen o ha ag eemen in 1971. Among he p incipal issues no ed o u u e s udy and ac ion in he Council app o ed-plan a e he ollowing: (1) ha moniza ion o he in- s umen s o mone a y policy, (2) ha moniza ion o he s uc u e and o some ex en he le el o axes wi h pa icula e e ence o he alue- added ax, excise du ies, ax ea men o in e es on ixed in e es se- cu i ies and di idends, company axes, and he ex ension o ax exemp ions g an ed o p i a e pe sons c ossing in a-communi y on- ie s, (3) in eg a ion o inancial ma ke s and he p og essi e coo di- na ion o he policies o membe s a es wi h espec o inancial ma ke s such as policies conce ning bond and s ock issues by non- esiden s in domes ic capi al ma ke s, (4) policy owa d he mo emen o capi al o and om hi d coun ies ou side he Communi y, (5) Communi y- le el policy on s uc u al and egional measu es and he p o ision o he Communi y o app op ia e means o implemen such policy. B oadly speaking hese a e a eas o policy o which he gene al logic o mon- e a y and economic union indica es he need o adjus men s in di e se p ac ices among membe s a es ei he o emo e ba ie s o mobili y o labo , capi al, and en ep eneu ship wi hin he Communi y o o acil- i a e he coo dina ion o implemen a ion o economic policy in esponse o ecommenda ions o dicisions aken a Communi y le el. Two o he un esol ed issues a e hose o he ole and deg ee o independence o he cen al banking unc ion a he Communi y le el and o he ans e o powe o decision in economic ma e s o a Communi y o ganiza ion oge he wi h p o ision o democ a ic con ol o e economic decisions. II. None o he p oposed s eps owa ds mone a y union con ained in he E. E. C. plan adop ed on Feb ua y 9, 1971 has been implemen ed as o 16a* OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 252 Donald R. Hodgman ea ly Ap il 1972 as his pape is being w i en. Bands a ound he "pi o " pa i ies on which ag eemen was eadied a he Smi hsonian mee ing o he G oup o 10 in Washing on on Decembe 18, 1971 a e wide han hose o he p io IMF ag eemen bo h wi hin he Commu- ni y and ou side. No isible p og ess has been made in mone a y ha - moniza ion among he E. E. C. membe s a es o on he de ails o he p oposed Eu opean Rese e Fund. The e is no ag eemen wi hin he E. E. C. on me hods o egula ing in e na ional capi al mo emen s, al hough i appea s o be gene ally accep ed wi hin he Communi y ha some o m o deg ee o egula ion is essen ial. Techniques and c i- e ia o coo dina ion o budge a y policy emain ill-de ined and com- mand no gene al suppo wi hin he Communi y. Longe e m p ojec s such as e o m o inancial ma ke s and ins i u ions, de elopmen o an in eg a ed Eu opean capi al ma ke o eplace he Eu ocu ency and Eu obond ma ke s, and ax e o m ha e no ad anced since adop ion o he plan. In ecen weeks, howe e , Ge many and F ance ha e ag eed o e- sume p og ess owa ds implemen a ion o he plan o mone a y and economic union and he E. E. C. Council as a i s s ep has app o ed he na owing o bands o exchange a e a ia ion among Communi y cu encies o a wid h o 2.25 pe cen e ec i e Ap il 24, 1972. The cen al banks o he membe s a es will coope a e o main ain e ec i e exchange a es o cu en accoun ansac ion wi hin hese ma gins and ha e unde aken o in e ene wi h Communi y cu encies as well as dolla s o p oduce his esul . In a companion mo e he Council ag eed also o he es ablishmen o a high le el commi ee made up o op ci il se an s om each membe s a e o supe ise he close coo dina ion o mone a y and budge a y policies. These de elopmen s ep esen a emp s o e i e he plan o mone a y and economic in eg a ion by aking some ini ial s eps owa ds i s implemen a ion. To e alua e he p oblems and p ospec s aised by hese and ela ed de elopmen s we shall explo e se e al a eas in g ea e de ail. Exchange Ra e Policy A majo goal s a ed in he plan o mone a y union is he p og essi e na owing o exchange ma gins among membe s a es o he E. E. C. Signi ican ly, his is he i s angible s ep announced o esump ion o he p ocess o mone a y uni ica ion ollowing he dis u bances o ex- change pa i ies o 1971. The ini ial goal in his espec , scheduled o OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 Eu opean Mone a y In eg a ion: P oblems and P ospec s 253 implemen a ion on Ap il 24, 1972, is s abiliza ion o exchange ma gins wi hin he Communi y so ha maximum a ia ions o e ec i e spo a es o cu en accoun ansac ions be ween any pai o Communi y cu encies will no exceed he po en ial a ia ion be ween any Com- muni y cu ency and he dolla . This measu e has a wo-Fold pu pose: o p o ide al e na i es o he dolla as a s able asse - o m o p i a e and public exchange ese es, and o eco e momen um owa d he e en ual goal o ixed pa i ies wi hin he Communi y. One immedia e implica ion o na owing exchange ma gins wi hin he Communi y is o es ic also he po en ial ma gin o a ia ion o indi idual na ional a es o exchange ela i e o he dolla unless he alue o indi idual E. E. C. na ional cu encies should ise and all in conce ela i e o he dolla . Di e se condi ions a ec ing he balance o paymen s o indi idual coun ies make his a mos unlikely esul i le o he in luence o ma ke o ces. The meaning is clea . A su plus coun y may ind ha he na owe in a-Communi y ma gin equi es i o in e ene o pu chase o eign exchange a a lowe ma ke a e o exchange ela i e o he dolla and a de ici coun y a a highe a e ela i e o he dolla han is equi ed by he e ms o he Smi hsonian ag eemen o he G oup o Ten. This implies in lows o ou lows o o eign exchange ese es in excess o hose ha need occu unde he Smi hsonian acco d. In so a as Communi y cu encies eplace he dolla as he in e - en ion cu ency some cen al banks in he Communi y will accumula e ese e asse s in o he Communi y cu encies a he han in dolla s. A su plus coun y whose a e o exchange begins o pene a e he ceil- ing o he. Communi y band may ha e o buy he cu ency o a de ici coun y whose exchange a e is a he loo o he band. Al e na i ely, he su plus coun y may lend i s cu ency o he de ici coun y. The dis ibu ion among Communi y coun ies o ese e asse s held in dol- la s will ce ainly be al e ed unde his o m o in e en ion as com- pa ed o exclusi e eliance on he dolla as in e en ion cu ency. In pa icula , su plus coun ies will hold ewe dolla s and de ici coun ies mo e dolla s han when he dolla is he sole in e en ion cu ency. The le el o he en i e Communi y band can be aised o lowe ed ela i e o he dolla by gene al e alua ion o de alua ion o Com- muni y cu encies by a s ipula ed pe cen age ela i e o he dolla . This will no make he p oblem o di e gen ends in balances o paymen s o membe s a es any easie o deal wi h, since any co ec ion o an OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 254 Donald R. Hodgman excessi e su plus o one coun y is likely o be o se by accen ua ion o he de ici being expe ienced by i s pa ne whose cu ency is a he loo o he Communi y band. Ins ead o en e ing he exchange ma ke o keep i s own cu ency om ising he su plus coun y will need o acqui e i s pa ne 's cu ency o keep i s exchange alue om alling. I a de ici coun y has an adequa e s ock o owned ese es, i may be able o suppo i s own exchange a e o some pe iod o ime wi h- ou help om i s E. E. C. pa ne s. Howe e , such independen sel - suppo is no expec ed o su ice as is e idenced by he cu en a ail- abili y o mu ual c edi h ough a angemen s o sho - e m mone a y aid and medium- e m inancial aid. The o me is a ailable uncondi - ionally up o s ipula ed quo as o indi idual coun ies o a pe iod o h ee mon h enewable o h ee mon h while he la e can be ex ended by a decision o he E. E. C. Council o a pe iod o wo o i e yea s bu is condi ional upon economic plicy commi men s nego ia ed be ween he ecipien o aid and i s pa ne s. E en his la e o m o medium e m c edi is no likely o p o e adequa e o a p olonged de ici which is one eason o he p oposed sha ing o ese es h ough a Eu opean Rese e Fund o be discussed below. Regula ion o Capi al Mo emen s Closely ela ed o he ques ion o exchange a e lexibili y and he wid h o bands in e nal and ex e nal o he Communi y is ha o con- ols o e in e na ional capi al mo emen s beween he Communi y and he es o he wo ld. Va ious p oposal o his end ha e been made wi hin he Communi y including exchange con ols, use o wo- ie o eign exchange ma ke s, and a ious o ms o ma ke -o ien ed meas- u es such as axes, special deposi s on o eign bo owings by co po- a ions and he like. In p ac ice, a he p esen ime e e y E. E. C. coun y in e enes in some way o egula e in e na ional capi al mo e- men s, and he end owa d inc eased in e en ion is e iden . Ap- p oaches o he p oblem ex end om i ually comp ehensi e admin- is a i e con ols o e capi al mo emen s wi hin he amewo k o o - eign exchange con ols as in F ance, I aly and he Ne he lands, o he use o a wo- ie o eign exchange ma ke in Belgium wi h a loa ing a e o capi al ansac ions, and o he Ge man sys em o ma ke - o ien ed con ols in he o m o special ese e equi emen s on non- esiden deposi s, special cash deposi s ha apply o co po a e bo owing OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 Eu opean Mone a y In eg a ion : P oblems and P ospec s 255 ab oad, and egula ions go e ning in e es payable o non- esiden s on deposi s and on ce ain money-ma ke pape sold o non- esiden s unde epu chase ag eemen s. Exchange con ols do no ep esen a sa is ac o y solu ion o he p o- blem o egula ing in e na ional capi al lows because o hei disc imi- na o y and a bi a y e ec s which limi compe i i e ma ke p ocesses ¿nd educe economic wel a e. Mo eo e , applica ion o exchange con- ols on an indi idual-coun y basis wi hin he E. E. C. would be in- consis en wi h he a owed aim o in eg a e Communi y capi al ma - ke s and wi h he p ocess o mone a y and economic in eg a ion gene- ally. To apply a uni o m se o exchange con ols a he bo de s o hè E. E. C. wi h no con ols on in e nal mo emen s o capi al would be adminis a i ely complex and would pose majo p oblems o policy ega ding he cha ac e o he con ols, p io i ies o be obse ed, and he like. These conside a ions ha e mo i a ed wo al e na i e app oaches o egula ion o capi al mo emen s by Communi y coun ies: (1) he wo- ie exchange ma ke cu en ly employed in Belgium and ecen ly u ged by he F ench as a gene al solu ion o he Communi y and (2) a se o measu es o con ol in lows o sho e m capi al ecommended by he E. E. C. Co ission o adop ion by each membe coun y. These ecommended measu es include he ixing o egula ions o in es men s on he money ma ke and he emune a ion o he deposi s o non- e- siden s, he egula ion o he ne ex e nal posi ion o c edi ins i u ions, and special obliga o y ese e equi emen s o non- esiden s deposi s. Nei he o hese app oaches o he egula ion o capi al mo emen s is likely o p o e sa is ac o y as a pe manen solu ion o he Communi y. A wo- ie exchange ma ke wi h a ixed a e o cu en accoun ansac ions and a eely- loa ing o pa ially con olled a e o capi al accoun ansac ions has ecen ly been analyzed by Vi o io Ba a ie i and Gio gio Ragazzi and somewha ea lie by J. Ma cus Fleming1. The analysis by Ba a ie i and Ragazzi is con ined o use o a wo- ie ma ke by an indi idual coun y. Fleming discusses b ie ly in addi ion 1 Vi o io Ba a ie i and Gio gio Ragazzi: „An Analysis o he Two-Tie Fo eign Exchange Ma ke ". Banca Nazionale del La o o, Qua e ly Re iew, No. 99, Dec. 1971, pp. 354 - 372; J. Ma cus Fleming: Essays in In e na ional Economics, Ch. 12, „Dual Exchange Ra es o Cu en and Capi al T ans- ac ions: A Theo e ical Examina ion", pp. 295 - 325, Ha a d Uni e si y P ess, Camb idge, Mass., 1971. OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 256 Donald R. Hodgman o he indi idual coun y case ha o "disc imina ing egional sys ems". In he la e case Fleming assumes eedom o capi al mo emen s a pa wi hin he g oup bu ope a ion is-a- is he es o he wo ld o dual a e ss ems designed o keep each coun y in o e all paymen s balance. The analysis o Ba a ie i and Ragazzi eaches conclusions a o able o he wo- ie sys em as compa ed o widening bands o selec i e con- ols o educe des abilizing capi al mo emen s. Thei analysis con- cludes ha a ia ion in he exchange a e o capi al accoun ansac- ions is mo e e ec i e han he al e na i e measu es and less a bi a y. Bu adop ion o his app oach in ol ing sepa a ely a ying exchange a es o capi al accoun ansac ions o indi idual coun ies would us a e he decla ed E. E. C. objec i e o c ea e an in eg a ed, Com- muni y-wide capi al ma ke so as o inc easing capi al mobili y inside he Communi y. Fleming's case o a "disc imina o y egional sys em" p o ides a pa - ial solu ion o his p oblem. He analyzes a sys em in which each in- g oup coun y equi es o eign exchange ansac ions o be classi ied in o one o h ee ca ego ies: cu en accoun ansac ions, in-g oup ca- pi al accoun ansac ions, and es -o - he-wo ld capi al accoun ans- ac ions. The ad an age o he sys em is o pe mi in-g oup capi al ans- e s a o nea he cu en accoun pa i y while allowing each coun y o manipula e i s a e o exchange o non-g oup capi al accoun ans- ac ions in o de o achie e o e all paymen s balance. In p ac ice such a sys em i adop ed by he E. E. C. would no p o e o be a panacea. Ex ensi e adminis a i e con ols would be equi ed o p e en "leakages" o m occu ing among he h ee ca ego ies o ex- e nal balances. Mo eo e , he e is no assu ance ha he esponse o ne lows o non-g oup capi al ansac ions o exchange a e a ia ion in ha ma ke would p o e adequa e o ed ess imbalances in he o he wo accoun s. This di icul y migh well inc ease wi h he passage o ime as cu en accoun ne lows al e ed in esponse o di e en ial domes ic p ice ends and o he ac o s. Fu he , should cu en accoun imbalances be o become la ge enough o a ouse specula ion on changes in cu en accoun pa i ies, he au ho i ies migh ind i e y di icul o o se specula i e capi al lows om wi hin he g oup as well as om ou side simply by means o a ying he a e o exchange in he non-g oup capi al accoun ma ke . When he analysis o he wo- ie ma ke is iewed in he con ex o h? E. E. C. mone a y and capi al accoun con ol objeci es we a e led OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 Eu opean Mone a y In eg a ion: P oblems and P ospec s 263 mus make in coping wi h imbalance. Main enance o a ixed s uc u e o exchange pa i ies wi hin he E. E. C., e en wi h allowance o some a ia ion o ma ke a es a ound pa i ies, will equi e expanded acil- i ies o o eign exchange c edi s wi hin he Communi y. This in u n implies a edis ibu ion o holdings o o eign exchange ese es o he han Communi y cu encies among he membe s a es wi h su plus coun ies expe iencing a dec ease and de ici coun ies an inc ease in he sha e o hei ese es held in dolla s, gold, and claims agains he In- e na ional Mone a y Fund. A Eu opean Mone a y Coope a ion Fund has been p oposed as a channel o pooling ese es and subjec ing hem o join managemen by ag eemen among he cen al banks o Com- muni y membe s. Some such a angemen is essen ial i he Communi y is o achie e ull mone a y in eg a ion in he u u e. The mu ual con- cessions equi ed o each ag emen on sha ing ese es on mo e han a oken basis in ol e cen al and highly sensi i e a eas o na ional eco- nomic so e eign y including na ional mone a y and budge a y policies o he in luence hese ha e on ends in domes ic agg ega e demand and p ice and in e es a e le els. Whe he he pe cei ed mu ual bene i s o mone a y in eg a ion wi hin he Communi y will be judged su icien o o e come ese a ions by na ional go e nmen s and a ious economic in e es g oups conce ning limi a ions on na ional economic so e eign y in hese sensi i e policy a eas is ques ionable. A di icul ela ed p oblem is ha o unding he s e ling claims o o he coun ies agains he Uni ed Kingdom as his coun y en e s in o ull membe ship in he E. E. C. Con ol o e capi al mo emen s be ween Communi y membe s and o he coun ies has been p oposed as an al e na i e o lexible exchange a es o egula e such lows and esul ing dis u bances o balance o paymen s and domes ic economic equilib ia. No sys em o egula ion ha applies uni o mly o he en i e Communi y can emo e he di- lemma o econciling di e se in e es s among indi idual membe s. A disc imina ing egional sys em o dual exchange a es ha combines in- g oup ixed a es o cu en and capi al accoun ansac ions wi h a a iable a e o non-g oup capi al ansac ions is capable in p inciple o combining eedom o in e nal capi al mo emen s wi h exchange a e adjus abili y o ex e nal balance o indi idual coun ies. In p ac ice, howe e , he exchange a e elas ici y o ne capi al mo emen s be ween indi idual Communi y membe s and he es o he wo ld migh be low enough o equi e e y la ge mo emen s in he exchange a e o non- OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 264 Donald R. Hodgman g oup capi al ansac ions o gene a e su icien olume h ough his channel o achie e o e all ex e nal balance o indi idual coun ies. In he case o a membe whose ex e nal balance wi h o he membe s was in pe sis en de ici , he c edibili y o hese e o s o main ain he ixed cu en accoun a e migh e en come in o ques ion so ha main enance o he ixed pa i y o cu en and in-g oup capi al accoun ansac ions would depend upon sha ing o ese es wi hin he Communi y. Finally, he Communi y's conce n wi h he ha moniza ion o he in- s umen s o mone a y policy appea s o be misdi ec ed, since i is he e ec s o mone a y policy ha mus be coo dina ed o con ibu e owa d he win objec i es o economic s abiliza ion and ex e nal bal- ance wi hin he Communi y. Mo eo e , he amilia dilemma o choos- ing be ween in e nal and ex e nal objec i es o mone a y policy when hese a e in con lic will con inue o con on na ional mone a y au ho- i ies. Only in he measu e ha a sha ing o ese es wi hin he Com- muni y p o ides gene ous assis ance o indi idual de ici coun ies may his dilemma be pa ially eased. Ou a en ion has been delibe a ely con ined o p oblems mos di- ec ly and immedia ely ela ed o mone a y in eg a ion. A hos o ad- di ional p oblems, some o hem qui e closely ela ed o mone a y in- eg a ion, mus be esol ed by he membe s o he Communi y in any se ious a emp o achie e economic as well as mone a y in eg a ion. The mu ual adjus men s inescapably posed by he equi emen s o mone- a y and economic union aise eno mously complex p oblems in he a eas o budge a y policy, capi al ma ke con ols, he s uc u e and egula ion o inancial ins i u ions and ma ke s, ax policy, social policy and egional policy. The adjus men s equi ed would a ec many es ab- lished p ac ices, om o economic o ganiza ion, business and go e n- men al p ocedu es, and es ed economic in e es s. How he go e nmen s o membe s a es and hei in e nal cons i uencies will espond as hese di icul ies a e mo e clea ly pe cei ed is a ma e o conjec u e. In he o ma ion o any coali ion he e mus be a balancing o p ospec i e ad an ages and disad an ages by he pa icipan s. In iew o he p oblems explo ed in his epo and hose sugges ed by he addi ional a eas men ioned abo e, i is ou opinion ha he E. E. C. plan o mone a y and economic union will no be implemen ed on any hing like i s announced scale o ime able. Wi h espec o mone- a y in eg a ion i seems likely ha e o s o coo dina e domes ic mone- a y policies will con inue o be limi ed o discussion and he exchange OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 Eu opean Mone a y In eg a ion: P oblems and P ospec s 265 o in o ma ion. The decision o na ow he band wi hin which exchange a es Communi y cu encies may mo e e ec i e Ap il 24, 1972 is likely o emain in e ec o a pe iod o ela i ely sho du a ion meas- u ed in mon hs a he han yea s. I launched he Eu opean Mone ay Coope a ion Fund will s ess c edi acili ies a he han ese e pooling and will be la gely a oken e o . Fo eign exchange con ols will be con inued and in ensi ied in ela ions o capi al mo emen s and will be applied on a na ional a he han a Communi y basis. In sho , signi - ican p og ess in mone a y in eg a ion wi hin he Communi y appea s mos unlikely. Zusammen assung Eu opäische mone ä e In eg a ion: P obleme und Tendenzen De Minis e a de EWG s imm e am 9. Feb ua 1972 eine modi izie en Ve sion des We ne -Plans ü eine Eu opäische Wäh ungs- und Wi scha s- union zu. Das Ziel des Plans is , in den nächs en zehn Jah en eine A bundes- s aa liche O dnung mi einhei liche Wäh ung, einem oll koo dinie en Zen albanksys em und eine wei gehenden Abs immung de na ionalen Haus- hal spoli ik ohne inne e Sch anken ü A bei , Kapi al, Gü e und Diens - leis ungen zu scha en. Die Un e suchung beschä ig sich o allem mi den mone ä en und inanzpoli ischen Vo schlägen und Zielen sowie mi de Rolle de EWG in in e na ionalen Wäh ungs agen. Eine zen ale F age is die zei liche Abs immung zwischen wäh ungspoli- ischen und inanz- bzw. no enbankpoli ischen Maßnahmen. De ausgehandel e Komp omiß sieh eine Synch onisa ion alle diese Maßnahmen o . Als e s e Sch i wu de eine Ve inge ung de Bandb ei en beschlossen, alle dings mi de Möglichkei , das Expe imen zu beenden, wenn nach ün Jah en die no - wendige Pa alleli ä zwischen mone ä en und wi scha spoli ischen Maßnah- men nich e eich wu de. Eng hie mi e bunden is die F age nach dem G ad de S abili ä ode Flexibili ä de Wechselku se inne halb de EWG und de Gemeinscha im Ve häl nis zum „Res de Wel ". G undsä zlich ha man sich au es e Wechselku se geeinig ; in de P axis bedeu e jedoch die Ve inge ung de Bandb ei en inne halb de EWG au 2,25 °/o eine Auswei ung gegenübe de Ve gangenhei . Die Ans eue ung es e Wechselku se inne halb de Gemeinscha bedeu e , daß die be eilig en No enbanken auch in Wäh ungen de Mi gliedslände in e enie en müssen. Eines de Ziele diese Poli ik is es, im Hal en on Gemeinscha swäh ungen eine Al e na i e zu Rese ehal ung in Dolla zu scha en. Je nach de Wechselku sen wicklung des Dolla s kann es hie bei e o - OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 266 Donald R. Hodgman de lich we den, das In e en ionsband zu e schieben. Ungelös is die F age, was bei länge anhal enden Zahlungsbilanzde izi en eines Mi gliedslandes geschehen soll. Die o gesehene ku z- und mi el is ige Hil es ellung inne halb de Gemeinscha dü e dann nich aus eichen. Ein bislang eben alls noch ungelös es P oblem is die Regulie ung de Kapi- albewegungen inne halb de EWG und mi d i en Lände n. Hie sind e - schiedene Wege o geschlagen wo den: Neben di ek en De isenkon ollen o allem ein gespal ene De isenma k und e schiedene A en on ma k o ien- ie en Maßnahmen, wie S eue n, Mindes ese en au K edi e aus dem Aus- land u. ä. De isenkon ollen s ellen keine be iedigende Lösung des P oblems da , weil sie den We bewe b einsch änken und den Wohls and e minde n. Theo e ische Un e suchungen übe die Aus /i kungen gespal ene De isenmä k e ü lau ende T ansak ionen eine sei s und Kapi al ansak ionen ande e sei s haben gezeig , daß sie den ge ings en G ad an Ve ze ungen und Willkü beinhal en wü den. Als Daue ein ich ung wü den sie jedoch dem Ziel eines einhei lichen Kapi alma k es inne halb de EWG wide sp echen. Das Gleiche gil au lange Sich ü alle Fo men de Kapi al e keh skon ollen. Bei igo- ose Anwendung wü den sie schließlich zu De isenzwangswi scha üh en. Im üb igen müß en die Kon ollen in allen Lände n de EWG gleich scha gehandhab we den. Jede „Deichb uch" wü de das ganze Sys em zusammen- b echen lassen. De Ausweg aus diesem Dilemma könn e in de Scha ung eines Eu o- päischen Wäh ungsausgleichs onds liegen. Wenn auch noch nich siche is , welche Fo m e annehmen könn e, so is doch o auszusehen, daß e sowohl ü De izi - wie ü Übe schußlände e ns e P obleme au we en wü de. Au die Daue könn e e nu unk ionie en, wenn wesen liche Un e schiede in de En wicklung des P eisni eaus, in de Finanz- und K edi poli ik und in de P oduk i i ä sen wicklung e mieden we den. Dies e s ä k die Bedeu ung eine Koo dina ion und Ha monisie ung de wäh ungs- und inanzpoli ischen Maßnahmen in de EWG. Alle dings is bislang noch nich kla , was un e Ha monisie ung de Wäh- ungspoli ik zu e s ehen is , mi Ausnahme de Ve inge ung de Bandb ei en. Wich ige wä e jedoch eine Ha monisie ung de geldpoli ischen Maßnahmen in den einzelnen Mi gliedslände n. Dabei wä en o allem die geldpoli ischen Ins umen e zu ha monisie en. Dies genüg jedoch nich , weil es nich zule z au die Ziele de Geldpoli ik ankomm , ob und welche Ins umen e eingese z we den können. Schließlich sind auch die Rückwi kungen de Geldpoli ik und ih e Ins umen e au ande e E o de nisse de na ionalen Poli ik wie au die Pa ne lände zu be ücksich igen. Angesich s alle diese Schwie igkei en is die Scha ung eine wi klich engen Wäh ungsgemeinscha inne halb de EWG seh unwah scheinlich. OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 Eu opean Mone a y In eg a ion: P oblems and P ospec s 267 Résumé In ég a ion moné ai e eu opéenne: p oblèmes e endances Le 9 é ie 1972, le Conseil de Minis es des Communau és adop ai une e sion emaniée du plan We ne d'une union économique e moné ai e eu o- e sion emaniée du plan We ne d'une union économique e moné ai e eu o- péenne. L'objec i du plan consis e à c ée au cou s des dix p ochaines années une so e d'o ganisa ion d'E a édé al a ec une monnaie unique, un sys ème de banques cen ales in ég alemen coo donné e une la ge coo dina ion des poli iques budgé ai es na ionales sans le moind e obs acle en ma iè e d'ac i i és, de capi al, de biens e de se ices. La p ésen e é ude s'in é esse plus pa iculiè e- men aux p oposi ions e aux objec i s de poli ique moné ai e e inanciè e ainsi qu'au ôle de la CEE dans les ques ions moné ai es in e na ionales. La coo dina ion dans le emps des mesu es de poli ique moné ai e e de celles de poli ique inanciè e ou de la banque d'émission cons i ue une ques ion p imo diale. Le comp omis négocié p é oi une synch onisa ion de ou es ces mesu es. Comme p emiè e ac ion, l'on a décidé de é éci les ma ges de luc- ua ion des monnaies, a ec ou e ois la possibili é de me e in à l'expé ience si ap ès cinq ans, l'on n'es pas pa enu à a eind e l'indispensable pa allélisme en e les mesu es moné ai es e économiques. En é oi appo a ec ce e p emiè e ac ion se si ue la ques ion du deg é de s abili é ou de lexibili é des aux de change au sein de la CEE e en e la Communau é e le es e de l'uni e s. Su le plan des p incipes, l'on s'es p o- noncé en a eu de la ixi é des aux de change, mais dans la p a ique, le é écissemen des ma ges de luc ua ion à 2,25 °/o à l'in é ieu de la CEE n'en cons i ue pas moins un éla gissemen pa appo à la si ua ion an é ieu e. La eche che de pa i és ixes au sein de la Communau é signi ie que les banques cen ales pa icipan es doi en égalemen in e eni en monnaies des E a s memb es. L'un des bu s de ce e poli ique consis e à c ée pa la conse - a ion de monnaies communau ai es une al e na i e à la cons i u ion de ése es en dolla s. En onc ion de l'é olu ion du aux de change du dolla , il peu de eni nécessai e de déplace la ma ge d'in e en ion. L'on a laissé sans éponse la ques ion de sa oi ce qui se passe ai si un E a memb e se ou ai de an des dé ici s de sa balance des paiemen s pendan une longue du ée. L'aide inanciè e à cou e à moyen e me ins i uée dans la Commu- nau é ne su i ai pas à ésoud e ce p oblème. Un au e p oblème qui demeu e non ésolu depuis long emps es la égu- la ion des mou emen s de capi aux au sein de la CEE e a ec les pays ie s. Di e ses solu ions a aien é é p oposées: ou e les con ôles di ec s des de ises, on p oposai su ou un double ma ché des changes e plusieu s so es de mesu es d'o ien a ion du ma ché, elles que l'imposi ion, des ése es obliga- oi es su les c édi s en p o enance de l'é ange , e c.... Le con ôle des OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29 268 Donald R. Hodgman changes n'appo e pas une solu ion sa is aisan e au p oblème, ca il édui la concu ence e diminue le bien-ê e géné al. L'examen héo ique des e e s du double ma ché des changes, l'un pou les ansac ions cou an es e l'au e pou les ansac ions en capi aux, a démon é qu'il appo ai le moins de es ic ions e d'a bi ai e. Comme ins i u ion pe manen e, le double ma ché des changes s'oppose ai ou e ois à l'objec i communau ai e d'un ma ché uni ié des capi- aux. L'a gumen peu d'ailleu s ê e opposé à long e me à ou e o me de con ôle de la ci cula ion des capi aux. Une applica ion igou euse doi mene in ailliblemen à une économie à de ises con ôlées. Au demeu an , ces con- ôles de aien a oi la même egueu dans ous les E a s de la CEE. Tou e « up u e de digue » dé ui ai le sys ème en ie . Pou so i de ce dilemme, l'on pou ai suggé e la c éa ion d'un onds eu opéen de pé équa ion. Si l'on ne sai pas enco e exac emen quelle o me il pou ai e ê i , l'on peu déjà a ance qu'il susci e a des p oblèmes sé ieux an aux pays de dé ici s qu'aux pays d'excéden s. A la longue, son onc ionne- men ne se ai ga an i que si l'on pou ai élimine les p incipaux éca s dans l'é olu ion du ni eau des p ix, dans la poli ique inanciè e e du c édi , e dans le dé eloppemen de la p oduc i i é. Ce qui p écède ne ai que en o ce l'in é ê d'une coo dina ion e d'une ha monisa ion des poli iques moné ai es e inanciè es dans la CEE. Mais l'on igno e enco e ce qu'il au en end e pa ha monisa ion des poli- iques moné ai es, à l'excep ion du é écissemen des ma ges de luc ua ion. Il se ai néanmoins plus impo an d'ha monise les mesu es de poli ique moné- ai e dans ous les E a s memb es. E l'on au ai à débu e pa les ins umen s de la poli ique moné ai e, enco e que cela ne su ise pas, puisque le choix des ins umen s dépend a an ou des objec i s. En in, il au p end e aussi en considé a ion les épe cussions de la poli ique moné ai e e de ses ins umen s su d'au es exigences de la poli ique na ionale e su les pays pa enai es. Vu ou es les di icul és men ionnées, l'on iend a pou ès imp obable la c éa ion d'une communau é moné ai e é i ablemen é oi e. OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.5.3.249 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:26:29