Long-term power outage and preparedness of the population of a region in the Czech Republic - A case study

sus ainabili y A icle Long-Te m Powe Ou age and P epa edness o he Popula ion o a Region in he Czech Republic—A Case S udy Š ˇepán Ka an 1,* , Olga D oˇ áˇcko á1, Jiˇ íPoko ný2and Lenka B uma o á2   Ci a ion: Ka an, Š.; D oˇ áˇcko á, O.; Poko ný, J.; B uma o á, L. Long-Te m Powe Ou age and P epa edness o he Popula ion o a Region in he Czech Republic—A Case S udy. Sus ainabili y 2021,13, 13142. h ps:// doi.o g/10.3390/su132313142 Academic Edi o : Gianpie o G eco Recei ed: 10 No embe 2021 Accep ed: 26 No embe 2021 Published: 27 No embe 2021 Publishe ’s No e: MDPI s ays neu al wi h ega d o ju isdic ional claims in published maps and ins i u ional a il- ia ions. Copy igh : © 2021 by he au ho s. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land. This a icle is an open access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms and condi ions o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion (CC BY) license (h ps:// c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/ 4.0/). 1Facul y o Heal h and Social S udies, Uni e si y o Sou h Bohemia in Ceske Budejo ice, 370 11 Ceske Budejo ice, Czech Republic; [email p o ec ed] 2Facul y o Sa e y Enginee ing, VSB-Technical Uni e si y o Os a a, 700 30 Os a a, Czech Republic; [email p o ec ed] (J.P.); lenka.b uma [email p o ec ed] (L.B.) *Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]; Tel.: +420-724-178-999 Abs ac : The powe ou ages ha ha e occu ed in ecen yea s a ound he wo ld poin o widesp ead p oblems wi h consequences o he li es and heal h o he popula ion, bu also ma e ial damage. This is a case s udy ha ocuses on he e alua ion o he p epa edness o he popula ion o a selec ed egion in he Czech Republic o a long- e m powe ou age. This a icle deals wi h a case s udy ha ocuses on he e alua ion o he p epa edness o he popula ion o he Ka lo y Va y egion in he ield o eme gency su i al. Pa o he s udy is he e alua ion o he esponden s’ answe s, which p o ides an o e iew o he ac ual s a e o p epa edness o powe ou ages on a sample g oup o esponden s in he Ka lo y Va y egion. The esea ch me hod used was a su ey using ques ionnai es. The ob ained in o ma ion was subsequen ly s a is ically e alua ed by nonpa ame ic co ela ion using Kendall’s au b . F om he p esen ed esul s o he su ey, i is clea ha he inhabi an s o smalle municipali ies a e be e p epa ed o a powe ou age and can c ea e basic condi ions o eme gency su i al. Keywo ds: long- e m powe ou age; secu i y; eme gency su i al; ci il p o ec ion; popula ion eadiness 1. In oduc ion We a e exposed o many secu i y isks in ou daily li es. Some o hem a e isible a i s glance, bu he e a e also hose ha a e hidden and can signi ican ly comp omise secu i y. Ex ensi e ou ages o ene gy sou ces, especially oil and elec ici y, a e also a signi ican isk. La ge-scale powe ou ages can signi ican ly a ec he socie y and economy o any s a e and ha e an impac on li e. Elec ici y is cu en ly one o he mos impo an ypes o ene gy. I can be ela i ely easily con e ed in o kine ic, he mal, ligh ene gy and ansmi ed o e long dis ances. Mode n human socie y is dependen on elec ici y supplies. A long- e m ou age can be a majo dange o mode n ci iliza ion. The elec ici y sys em is a na ionwide a ea sys em wi h a high deg ee o connec ion o he elec ici y sys ems o neighbo ing coun ies. I is e y sensi i e o he p ope unc ions and equi ed in e ac ions o i s indi idual elemen s. These elemen s a e closely ela ed and hey also in e ac wi h each o he . (I) I he cause o he supply dis up ion we e only a local ailu e (loss o a ew elemen s o subs a ions), he ou age would be sho - e m and he es o a ion o powe o end cus ome s would be possible in minu es o hou s. (II) I he e is a sys em-wide disp opo ion be ween elec ici y p oduc ion and consump ion o a supply ou age caused by an o e load, equency, o ol age collapse, he ou age can be conside ed medium- e m wi h a sys em eco e y ime o se e al hou s o ens o hou s. (III) I an ou age is caused by ex eme na u al causes o a huge e o is a ack ha would damage a la ge pa o he c i ical in as uc u e, he esump ion o ene gy supply could ake se e al days o e en weeks. Sus ainabili y 2021,13, 13142. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/su132313142 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/sus ainabili y Sus ainabili y 2021,13, 13142 2 o 14 Long- e m powe ou ages a e he objec o many s udies in he ield o elec ici y. F om he poin o iew o secu i y s udies and social sciences, his is a ela i ely new phenomenon. The dange o la ge-scale powe ou ages was examined mainly om a echnical poin o iew when sui able echnical and enginee ing solu ions on how o p e en his phenomenon we e sough . The ocus was also on how o minimize he consequences o a possible la ge-scale ou age o cause as li le damage as possible. Despi e all e o s o design sa e sys ems, we a e s ill wi nessing majo la ge-scale acciden s [ 1 – 3 ]. The socio- echnical isk managemen sys em is add essed, which includes se e al le els om legisla o s, manage s, wo k planne s, and sys em ope a o s [ 4 ]. Bu how is socie y a he popula ion le el p epa ed o a long- e m powe ou age? This ex deals wi h he issue o p epa edness o he popula ion in he case o a majo powe ou age, which can ha e se ious nega i e consequences. The goal o he pape is o examine he eadiness o he popula ion ega ding eme gency su i al in he e en o a long- e m powe ou age in he Ka lo y Va y egion in he Czech Republic. The s udy con ains i s own limi a ions and does no add ess he echnical aspec s o dis up ion o ensu ing he sa e y and eliabili y o he elec ici y sys em and he egula ion o elec ici y consump ion. I also does no examine possible economic impac s. The s udy does no ocus on he e alua ion o echnical and manipula ion eadiness o he ansmission sys em o possible long- e m powe ou ages, backup by al e na i e sou ces, o solu ions o p io i y supply o s a egically impo an en i ies such as c i ical in as uc u e elemen s. Acco ding o he au ho s’ su ey, he e alua ion o he popula ion’s eadiness o a long- e m powe ou age has no been published in he in e na ional en i onmen . A ailable li e a u e sou ces mainly ocus on he s abili y o elec ici y supply, load in he dis ibu ion ne wo k, and manipula ion in he ansmission sys em [ 5 – 10 ]. O he au ho s ocus mo e on possible causes, disas e p e en ion, heal h issues [ 11 – 15 ], esilience, op imiza ion, and isk managemen in socie y - wi h ega d o possible social and economic impac s [ 16 – 20 ]. Ano he iew o he issue is he educa ion and aining o he popula ion and selec ed ci ic associa ions [ 21 , 22 ]. O he au ho s add ess he opic in e ms o ulne abili y analysis, cul u al aspec s and wa nings [ 23 – 25 ], damage modeling o s eng hening he esilience o ene gy dis ibu ion sys ems, and planning [ 2 , 26 – 28 ]. Howe e , esea ch esul s o he le el o popula ion eadiness o he consequences o a long- e m powe ou age ha e no been published in he a ailable li e a u e. The powe ou ages ha ha e occu ed in ecen yea s a ound he wo ld [ 29 ] poin o widesp ead consequences o he li es and heal h o he popula ion, bu also o ma e ial damage o p ope ies. An o e iew o selec ed powe ou ages is shown in Table 1. Table 1. Selec ed examples o powe ou ages in he wo ld. Da e o Powe Ou age Coun y Cause Popula ion wi hou Elec ici y (in Millions) 31 Ma ch 2015 Tu key Decommission o wo powe plan s and simul aneous main enance on ansmission lines (no con i med) 70 26 Oc obe 2012 B azil Fi e in he subs a ion 53 30–31 July 2012 India De ici be ween p oduc ion and dynamically inc easing consump ion (line o e load), which was exace ba ed by un a ou able clima ic condi ions 670 8 Sep embe 2011 USA a Mexico Ope a o e o and subsequen ailu e o e y high ol age lines 3 11 Ma ch 2011 Japan Decommission o nuclea powe plan s, a e being damaged by a sunami caused by an ea hquake 4.4 28 Janua y 2008 China A snows o m des oyed a e y high ol age line 30 11 No embe 2009 B azil, Pa aguay, and U uguay Sho ci cui o 3 ans o me s due o hea y ains 60 18 Augus 2005 Indonesia (islands Ja a and Bali) Mul iple ailu es o he powe sys em which knocked ou 2700 MW o powe 100 27–28 Sep embe 2003 I aly (excep Sa dinia) S o m 56 14 Augus 2003 USA and Canada A sho ci cui caused by ee b anches and consequen w ong ix o ini ia ion aul s 50 20 Feb ua y–27 Ma ch 1998 New Zealand Repea ed aul s on high ol age cables n/a Sus ainabili y 2021,13, 13142 3 o 14 Popula ion eadiness o deal wi h eme gencies and c ises, and hus a long- e m powe ou age, is a ma e o ci il p o ec ion by issuing eme gency su i al measu es [ 30 , 31 ]. Ci il p o ec ion in he Czech Republic is cha ac e ized as a se o ac i i ies and p ocedu es o compe en au ho i ies and o he in e es ed bodies, o ganiza ions, uni s, and he popula ion. I aims a minimizing he nega i e impac s o possible eme gencies and c isis si ua ions on human heal h and li es and li ing condi ions. Eme gency su i al can be cha ac e ized as a empo a y way o popula ion su i al ha has been a ec ed by he consequences o eme gencies o c isis si ua ions. I includes measu es o eme gency accommoda ion, ood, d inking wa e and ene gy supply, and he o ganiza ion o humani a ian aid [32]. The s udy ocuses on he e alua ion o he ob ained esul s o a su ey aimed a de e mining he eadiness o he popula ion in he ield o eme gency su i al in a si ua ion o a long- e m powe ou age. The a icle e alua es he answe s o he esponden s and hus p o ides an o e iew o he ac ual cu en s a e o p epa edness on a sample g oup o esponden s in he Ka lo y Va y egion. The hypo hesis is o mula ed as a p ocess o c ea ing o de ly knowledge ha is based on sys ema ic esea ch. Speci ically, he ollowing hypo hesis was o mula ed: H1 Residen s o smalle municipali ies a e be e p epa ed o cope wi h he consequences o a long- e m powe ou age han esiden s o u ban a eas. The ex o he a icle is s uc u ed in o indi idual chap e s. The in oduc ion p esen s he issue o powe ou ages, he aim o he wo k and he hypo hesis. The chap e “Ma e ial and me hods” ocuses on he in oduc ion o esea ch me hodology and speci ica ion o he opic in ela ion o c isis managemen . The nex chap e ocuses on he p esen a ion o he ob ained esul s. The chap e “Discussion and conclusions” e lec s he esul s o he su ey. 2. Ma e ials and Me hods To achie e he goal, he au ho s p epa ed a esea ch p ojec in he p epa a o y phase, which was based on empi ical p elimina y esea ch. P elimina y esea ch is based on a se o classi ied knowledge on popula ion p epa edness o long- e m powe ou ages. I also se es as a p ocess o gene a ing knowledge acco ding o ce ain me hodological ules [ 33 , 34 ]. The esea ch p ojec is based on he p epa a o y pa —p e- esea ch. This is a su ey on a small sample o esponden s o e i y ha he ques ionnai e is unde s andable. Subsequen ly, he commen s we e inco po a ed so ha he in e iew could be conduc ed in ull comp ehensibili y. We used he applied esea ch me hod, whe e issues o p ac ical impo ance we e add essed and speci ic p oblems in he ield o popula ion p epa edness we e examined. The pe o med quan i a i e esea ch was ocused on a ce ain elemen in na u al condi ions, which was popula ion eadiness o he possible e ec s o a long- e m powe ou age, and on ying o unde s and i and c ea e a comp ehensi e pic u e o i i possible. 2.1. Me hods The main me hod o he esea ch was a su ey in he o m o a ques ionnai e, which was used o ob ain in o ma ion om he inhabi an s o he Ka lo y Va y egion. The ques ionnai e can be conside ed as one o he mos widesp ead esea ch echniques. The ad an age o he ques ionnai e is easy and as adminis a ion and he possibili y o pe sonal anonymi y. The disad an age can be seen in he o mula ion o ques ions, which may no be sui able o e e yone. Ano he disad an age is a ce ain subjec i i y o he s a emen s. The ques ionnai e was used o de e mine he eadiness and awa eness o indi idual esponden s. The s udy was conduc ed in acco dance wi h he e hical app oach o conduc ing a su ey. The esea ch was based on in o med consen . Responden s pa icipa ed in he s udy only i hey ag eed. They we e ully in o med in ad ance abou he cou se and ci cums ances o he esea ch. Responden s we e awa e o hei eedom o wi hd aw om he esea ch wi hou consequences. The p o ec ion o he pa icipan s’ in e es s ensu ed Sus ainabili y 2021,13, 13142 4 o 14 u u e anonymi y and con iden iali y— he p o ec ion o iden i y. The au ho s in o med he esponden s abou he objec i es o he su ey. This empi ical esea ch is based on a sys ema ic examina ion o social phenomena in o de o ob ain knowledge ha desc ibes and explains he popula ion p epa edness ega ding eme gency su i al du ing long- e m powe ou ages in he Ka lo y Va y egion in he Czech Republic. The esea ch was ca ied ou and is desc ibed so as o ensu e epea able and e i iable in es iga ions. Two basic s eps we e aken in he esea ch p ocess: • explo a ion; da a collec ion was pe o med o de e mine he na u e o selec ed phe- nomena and ela ionships in e ms o popula ion p epa edness o he consequences o long- e m powe ou ages; i is an induc i e p ocess; • demons a ion; o demons a e o suppo he alidi y o some hypo heses on he basis o he ob ained da a. A s anda dized ques ionnai e wi h a ixed s uc u e was used o examine popula ion eadiness o a long- e m powe ou age. The ques ionnai e had a speci ic se o w i en ques- ions. They we e closed ques ions, i.e., yes o no ques ions, dicho omous ques ions (se e al possibili ies), o one ques ion wi h one o mo e answe s (disjunc i e and conjunc i e, o enume a ed wi h o de ). In open ques ions, hey had he possibili y o supplemen ing hei own w i en answe s. The selec ion o esponden s was pe o med as: •in en ional— he sample g oup esponded wi h he esea ch goal; •based on he willingness o pa icipa e in he esea ch. The esponden s we e add essed by he Fi e and Rescue Se ice o he Ka lo y Va y egion in coope a ion wi h he Ka lo y Va y egion in No embe 2018. The goal was o ob ain in o ma ion on ensu ing he basic needs o he popula ion in he e en o a long- e m powe ou age. The ac ual se o ques ions o he ques ionnai e was accessible ia a web link whe e he ques ionnai e was published. The condi ions o comple ing he ques ionnai e we e being o e 18 yea s old and long- e m esidence in he Ka lo y Va y egion. The link o he websi e wi h he ques ionnai e was dissemina ed using o icial p ess eleases and links on social ne wo ks. Residen s o he Ka lo y Va y egion we e asked o ill in he ques ionnai e so ha he c isis managemen au ho i ies could ob ain an o e iew o he basic possibili ies, supplies, and needs in he e en o a long- e m powe ou age. The su ey was closed a e wo mon hs in Janua y 2019. The su ey included 1855 esponden s (ou o a o al o 236,241 long- e m esiden s in he Ka lo y Va y egion; 0.8%). The su ey was conduc ed in he Ka lo y Va y egion, which is loca ed in he wes o he Czech Republic. The e a e a o al o 134 municipali ies, which a e u he di ided in o 527 pa s. I s a ea o 3310 km 2 makes he Ka lo y Va y egion one o he smalles in he coun y. I occupies only 4.2% o he o al a ea o he Czech Republic. As o 31 Decembe 2018, a o al o 236,241 inhabi an s li ed in he municipali ies o he Ka lo y Va y egion, which ep esen s 2.8% o he popula ion o he Czech Republic. The Ka lo y Va y egion is amous mainly o i s spas. The mos amous spas in he Czech Republic a e Ka lo y Va y, Ma iánskéLáznˇe, F an iško y Láznˇe, Kynž a , and Jáchymo . The su ey s a ed ha he s udy wo ks wi h a wo o mo e-day powe ou age. In he e en o a majo acciden , he eal possibili ies o he sys em ope a o s may no be able o ensu e immedia e ope a ion esump ion. They also may equi e he sys em o be shu down, which would cause a c isis si ua ion in he supply o elec ici y o cus ome s. Such an eme gency can c ea e an inc eased isk o seconda y c ises and pose a signi ican h ea o li es, heal h, p ope y, and he en i onmen . An au ho ized body may decla e one o he c isis si ua ions and s a e adminis a ion bodies may implemen c isis measu es wi h he help o he in eg a ed escue sys em. We used s a is ics o e alua e he ob ained in o ma ion. This can be cha ac e ized as a discipline ha ob ains in o ma ion om nume ical da a. I helps in he p epa a ion and implemen a ion o esea ch and in he e alua ion o he esul s ob ained. S a is ics p o ide he means o wo k wi h he esul s o unde s and a pa icula p oblem. The s a is ical p ocedu e was implemen ed in h ee basic pa s [35]: Sus ainabili y 2021,13, 13142 5 o 14 •da a acquisi ion using a ques ionnai e; • da a analysis, o ganiza ion o in o ma ion and nume ical summa ies and o he ma he- ma ical esou ces; • s a is ical e alua ion/in e e ence, in o ma ion summa y, acquisi ion and in e p e a- ion o phenomena, conclusions abou he ob ained esul s. The me hod o a s a is ical su ey as a o m o quan i a i e esea ch ocuses on and assesses s a is ical a iabili y and in e dependences o a iables. The s a is ical su ey was used o ob ain s uc u ed da a, which a e hen in e p e ed using he deduc i e app oach. The chosen o m o su ey was used o assess he in o ma ion om a selec ed sample g oup o he popula ion in he Czech Republic. The moni o ing uni ( esponden ) was one ep esen a i e o a household. Due o he na u e o he esea ch, a desc ip i e su ey was used, which ocuses on (and is hus limi ed) he s a is ical desc ip ion o da a ob ained by assessing he esponden s’ answe s. The p ocedu e can be desc ibed as a c oss-sec ional su ey because he collec ion o da a was ca ied ou in one speci ic ime in e al. Respon- den s we e asked abou he da a ha we e ela ed o he p esen o ecen pas , such as al e na i e sou ces o supplies o wa e , ood, o medicine. The use o a s uc u ed ques ionnai e enabled he au ho s o he s udy o main ain a ixed o de and o m o answe s o e ec i e s a is ical p ocessing. The disad an age o a i mly s uc u ed ques ionnai e is he comp ehensibili y o he ques ions, which may limi he eliabili y. Based on his ac , a p elimina y su ey was p epa ed i s . In his phase, he pilo ques ionnai e was illed in by 50 esponden s (who p o ided eedback and e alua ion o he wo ding o he ques ions). Subsequen ly, he ques ions we e modi ied in o de o achie e a co ec unde s anding o he ques ions. The s a is ical su ey was pe o med in IBM SPSS 24.0 p og am (S a is ics is he wo ld’s leading s a is ical so wa e used o sol e business and esea ch p oblems by means o ad-hoc analysis, hypo hesis es ing, and p edic i e analy ics.) using Kendall’s ank co e- la ion coe icien au b (Kendall’s coe icien o conco dance), which is a nonpa ame ic a i- an o Pea son’s co ela ion coe icien . The Kendall’s es makes no assump ions abou he na u e o a iables’ dis ibu ion. A p- alue o <0.05 was conside ed s a is ically signi ican . 2.2. Long-Te m Powe Ou age and C isis Managemen The elec ici y sys em is a na ionwide a ea sys em wi h a high deg ee o connec ion o he elec ici y sys ems o neighbo ing s a es. I is e y sensi i e o he p ope unc ion and equi ed in e ac ion o i s indi idual elemen s, which a e closely ela ed and in e ac wi h each o he . As elec ici y canno be s o ed in signi ican quan i ies, he balance be ween p oduc ion and consump ion mus be main ained a all imes. The elec ici y sys em mus con inuously ensu e a balance wi h he changing magni ude o consump ion and p oduc ion o elec ici y. This balance is ensu ed by he elec ici y ma ke and ansmission sys em ope a o s. The e a e e en s ha , depending on hei se e i y, he ex en o he a ec ed a ea and he equency o occu ence, can cause damage o loss o unc ion o one o mo e elemen s and lead o acciden s o a egional o na ional na u e, which in ex eme cases can a ec he sys em o con inuous in e connec ion. I he cause o he ou age is only a local ailu e (loss o a ew elemen s o subs a ions), i would be a sho - e m ou age and he es o a ion o powe would be possible in minu es o hou s. In his case, i would mos likely be a local ou age in a pa o a ci y o e i o y, and, in mos cases, i would no be necessa y o ake c isis measu es acco ding o he C isis Managemen Ac [ 36 ]. The sys em-wide disp opo ion be ween elec ici y p oduc ion and consump ion, o a supply ou age caused by o e load, equency, o ol age collapse, can, in mos cases, be conside ed a medium- e m ou age wi h a sys em eco e y ime o hou s o ens o hou s. On he con a y, decommissioning, i.e., damage o a la ge pa o c i ical in as uc u e by ex eme na u al e en s o as a esul o a huge e o is a ack could mean a esump ion o supply las ing se e al days o weeks (un il a eplacemen solu ion is implemen ed, which may include he cons uc ion o a eplacemen line a he si e o damage o anspo and ins alla ion o ese e ans o me s in a ec ed subs a ions). Sus ainabili y 2021,13, 13142 6 o 14 The speed o he esump ion o elec ici y supplies also depends on he cause. I he e is ex ensi e physical damage o he in as uc u e, he eco e y ime will be p opo ional o he ex en o he damage (days o weeks in he e en o wa o plane a y disas e s). I he en i e ansmission sys em, pa o i , o a signi ican a ea o he elec ici y sys em inds i sel wi hou ol age, a so-called blackou occu s, which means a la ge-scale dis up ion o elec ici y supply o a la ge numbe o cus ome s. Eu opean legisla ion de ines a blackou as ollows [37]: The ansmission sys em is in a blackou s a e i a leas one o he ollowing c i e ia is me : • mo e han 50% o cus ome s we e los in he egula o y a ea o he gi en ansmission sys em ope a o ; • he e is a comple e lack o ol age in he egula o y a ea o he ansmission sys em ope a o o a leas h ee minu es, which leads o he s a o he eco e y plan. The cause can be a signi ican ou age o ansmission and p oduc ion equipmen , which leads o a subsequen equency collapse. I such a si ua ion a ose, i would be necessa y o decla e a s a e o c isis and implemen c isis measu es and s a e o eme gency in he elec ici y sec o acco ding o he Ene gy Ac [ 38 ] on business condi ions and he pe o mance o s a e adminis a ion in ene gy sec o s and amendmen s o ce ain laws. In he Czech Republic, i is possible o decla e one o ou c i ical si ua ions o deal wi h la ge-scale eme gencies—a s a e o dange , a s a e o eme gency, a s a e o h ea o he s a e, and a s a e o wa [ 39 , 40 ]. Since 2001, when he new c isis legisla ion came in o o ce in he Czech Republic, a s a e o dange has been decla ed in 13 cases and a s a e o eme gency in 6 cases. The s a e o h ea o he s a e and he s a e o wa ha e no been decla ed du ing his pe iod. An o e iew o decla ed c isis si ua ions and he eason o he decla a ion is gi en in Table 2. I can be assumed ha in he e en o a long- e m powe ou age, one o he c i ical si ua ions would be decla ed, and i would p obably be an eme gency si ua ion. Table 2. O e iew o decla ed c i ical si ua ions in he Czech Republic [41]. Yea C i ical Si ua ion Reason o Decla ing 2002 Dange Flood 2002 Eme gency Flood 2004 Dange Landslide 2004 Dange Elimina ion o he consequences o a na u al disas e 2005 Dange Wa e wo ks ailu e 2006 Dange Flood 2006 Eme gency Flood 2006 Dange Landslide 2006 Dange Dange ous subs ances 2007 Eme gency Hu icane Ky ill 2009 Dange Flood 2010 Dange Flood 2013 Dange Flood 2013 Eme gency Flood 2014 Dange Landslip 2016 Dange Illegal s o age o dange ous subs ances 2017 Dange A ican pig plague 2020 Eme gency Co ona i us SARS-CoV-2 (Ma ch, Ap il) 2020/2021 Eme gency Co ona i us SARS-CoV-2 (Oc obe 2020–Feb ua y 2021) 3. Resul s The an icipa ed seconda y e en s ha may occu as a esul o a long- e m powe ou age and e en s ha may occu independen ly o cumula i ely and a ec he solu ion o he si ua ion can include (au ho s’ own e lec ion): •dis up ion o he supply o c ude oil and pe oleum p oduc s; Sus ainabili y 2021,13, 13142 7 o 14 •dis up ion o la ge-scale gas supplies; •dis up ion o la ge-scale ood supplies; •dis up ion o la ge-scale d inking wa e supplies; •dis up ion o he unc ionali y o impo an elec onic communica ions sys ems; •la ge-scale b eaches o legali y; •dis up ion o hea supplies; • a ic dis up ions ( a ic signals, ail anspo , ai po ope a ions); •una ailabili y o in o ma ion and communica ion sys ems. These seconda y e en s would ha e an impac on popula ion su i al. The e o e, he popula ion was su eyed o eadiness, ma e ial sel -su iciency, and knowledge o possible p ocedu es in he e en o a long- e m powe ou age. Impac s on he popula ion a e he objec i e o his esea ch and he su ey. Each esponden ep esen ed one household. Thei answe s a e shown in Table 3. I is ob ious ha he indi idual su eyed ca ego ies a e ep esen ed ela i ely equally. The lowes equency (5% o less) was eco ded o “one-pe son household”, “medicine supply o less han a week”, and “owne ship o an elec ical medical de ice”. Due o he la ge sample size, only he leas ep esen ed issue o medical de ices was no included in u he analyses. Table 3. Answe pe cen age in he su ey (n= 1855). Ques ion Answe s F equency Pe cen age Size o municipali y up o 1000 people 445 24.0% om 1001 o 10,000 people 631 34.0% o e 10,000 people 779 42.0% Housing amily house 770 41.5% esiden ial building 433 23.3% p e ab ica ed apa men building 652 35.1% Numbe o household membe s 1 122 6.6% 2 503 27.1% 3 529 28.5% 4 and mo e 701 37.8% Hea ing independen o elec ici y no 1143 61.6% yes 712 38.4% Wa e supply/own well n/a 978 52.7% 1–2 days 553 29.8% 3–5 days 191 10.3% mo e han 5 days 133 7.2% Food supply n/a 309 16.7% 1–2 days 874 47.1% 3–5 days 461 24.9% mo e han days 5 211 11.4% Medicine supply less han 1 week 70 3.8% 1 week 146 7.9% mo e han 1 week 644 34.7% I do no use 995 53.6% Cash no 567 30.6% yes 1288 69.4% Ba e y-ope a ed adio/ca adio no 543 29.3% yes 1312 70.7% Backup powe supply no 1679 90.5% yes 176 9.5% Co age wi hou elec ici y no 1051 56.7% yes 804 43.3% Medical elec ical appliances no 1841 99.2% yes 14 0.8% Sus ainabili y 2021,13, 13142 8 o 14 Due o he o dinal na u e o he da a and he limi ed ange o used scales, he Kendall’s nonpa ame ic co ela ion coe icien au b was used o e alua e he ela ionships. The esul s a e shown in Tables 4and 5. In Tables 4and 5, he a iables a e so ed acco ding o he dec easing ela ion o he size o esidence. Co ela ion coe icien s a e s a ed abo e he diagonal. Below he diagonal, he p- alues a e p esen ed. S a is ically signi ican esul s a e shown in bold. Table 4. E alua ion o nonpa ame ic co ela ion o selec ed cha ac e is ics (I) using he Kendall’s aub(n= 1855). Size o Municipali y Housing Numbe o Household Membe s Size o municipali y 0.370 –0.176 Housing <0.001 –0.231 Numbe o household membe s <0.001 <0.001 Table 5. E alua ion o nonpa ame ic co ela ion o selec ed cha ac e is ics (II) using he Kendall’s aub(n= 1855). Size o Municipali y Hea ing Independen o Elec ici y Wa e Supply/Own Well Backup Powe Supply Food Supply Ba e y-Ope a ed Radio/Ca Radio Cash Co age wi hou Elec ici y Medicine Supply Size o municipali y –0.281 –0.182 –0.099 –0.071 –0.069 –0.066 –0.009 0.007 Hea ing independen o elec ici y <0.001 0.153 0.142 0.116 0.198 0.083 0.039 0.009 Wa e supply/own well <0.001 <0.001 0.186 0.313 0.150 0.171 0.102 0.056 Backup powe supply <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.116 0.119 0.091 0.066 0.041 Food supply <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.121 0.148 0.076 0.145 Ba e y-ope a ed adio/ca adio 0.002 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.152 0.116 0.042 Cash 0.003 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.129 0.060 Co age wi hou elec ici y 0.666 0.094 <0.001 0.005 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 –0.025 Medicine supply * 0.812 0.786 0.070 0.218 <0.001 0.208 0.071 0.456 * The numbe o obse a ions is limi ed o 860, he ca ego y “I do no use medicamen s” is excluded. The p esen ed esul s show ha he size o he municipali y, he ype o housing, and he numbe o people in he household a e signi ican ly ela ed (p< 0.001). Wi h he inc easing size o he esidence/municipali y, he sha e o esiden ial and p e ab ica ed apa men buildings inc eases (Kendall’s au b = 0.370), and he numbe o people in house- holds dec eases ( aub= –0.176). The smalle numbe o people in a common household is also ela ed o he g owing p opo ion o esiden ial and p e ab ica ed apa men buildings ( aub= –0.231). The p esen ed esul s clea ly show ha he dependence o esponden s on ex e nal elec ici y supplies ( au b = − 0.281), eme gency wa e supply ( au b = − 0.182), ood a ailabil- i y ( au b = − 0.071), e c., g ow wi h he g owing size o a municipali y. Co age owne ship and he a ailabili y o medicamen s a e no ela ed o he size o he municipali y. I is ob ious ha he indi idual s udied a eas a e posi i ely co ela ed, e.g., highe a ailabili y o du able ood is connec ed wi h hea ing independen o elec ici y, a ailabili y o own d inking wa e , backup powe supply, ba e y-ope a ed adio/ca adio, cash, and co age Sus ainabili y 2021,13, 13142 9 o 14 owne ship. In he case o he supply o medicamen s, only he ela ionship o he a ailabil- i y o ood was ound—g ea e a ailabili y o medicamen s is ela ed o highe a ailabili y o du able oods and ice e sa. 4. Discussion This esea ch was ca ied ou as a sys ema ic s udy o social phenomena in o de o ob ain knowledge ha desc ibes and explains he cu en p epa edness o he popula ion o he consequences o long- e m powe ou ages [ 42 ]. The esea ch included a sys ema ic p ocess o collec ing in o ma ion, syn hesizing exis ing knowledge, and achie ing an inc ease in knowledge [ 43 ]. The goal was o ob ain a uni ied iew o he subjec o he s udy — he eadiness o he popula ion o he selec ed egion in he Czech Republic o a long- e m powe ou age. On he one hand, he goal was o isola e indi idual opics o secu i y issues—ci il p o ec ion. On he o he hand, he indi idual a eas we e s udied in he con ex o social a eas, i.e., ega ding he popula ion. The p esen ed esul s o he su ey show ha esiden s in smalle municipali ies a e less dependen on elec ici y supplies and, in he e en o a supply ou age, can c ea e basic condi ions o eme gency su i al. On he con a y, he assump ion ha he inhabi an s o la ge municipali ies and especially ci ies we e dependen on ex e nal assis ance was con i med. In he p epa a ion o his s udy, we e lec ed he idea ha he popula ion o smalle municipali ies (especially in he ag icul u al coun yside) had al eady los he abili y o be pa ially sel -su icien . Howe e , he esul s o he s udy ha e shown ha he inhabi an s o smalle municipali ies s ill ha e he possibili y o an eme gency supply o d inking wa e , hei own s o ed ood, and can use solid uel s o es ega dless o elec ici y supply. The esul s o he ques ionnai e su ey show ha , in e ms o basic secu i y o wa e supplies o own wells, mo e han hal o he esponden s (52.7%) a e no secu ed o possible dis up ion o wa e supplies. On he o he hand, he esul s o he su ey show in o ma ion o c isis managemen au ho i ies. 47.3% o esponden s ha e a leas a minimum supply o d inking wa e . The majo i y o esponden s (83.3%) ha e ood supplies o a leas one o wo days. The ques ion abou he ba e y-ope a ed adio o ca adio aimed a he possibili ies o eme gency ansmission o in o ma ion a e he ailu e o he backed-up wa ning ne wo k ( egula session a a ce ain ime). 70.7% o he popula ion had his op ion. C isis managemen au ho i ies can build hei disas e p epa edness and planning documen s using his in o ma ion. In he e en o a long- e m in e up ion o elec ici y supply, he basic social impac s (A) and he impac s on people’s li es and heal h (B) can be cha ac e ized. The p epa edness o he popula ion and c isis managemen bodies mus aim a minimizing he nega i e consequences. (A) Social impac s (au ho s’ own e lec ion) • he isk o e y se ious social and heal h impac s on he daily li e o he popula ion; • he isk o a apid ise in unemploymen due o he o ced educ ion o economic ac i i ies, educ ion o capaci y, and signi ican economic losses o economic ope a o s; • he isk o limi ing o impossibili y o p o iding basic social se ices o he popula ion; • he isk o a signi ican decline in he li ing s anda ds o he popula ion as a esul o a p obable economic shock (p ope y damage, loss o employmen , in la ion, e c.); • he isk o se ious dis u bance o public o de and secu i y. (B) Impac s on people’s li es and heal h (au ho s’ own e lec ion) • di ec h ea o he li e and heal h o he ope a ing pe sonnel o elec ici y p oduc ion plan s ; • di ec dange o he li e and heal h o wo ke s liquida ing he consequences o he elec ici y sys em damage; • di ec h ea o he li e and heal h o he popula ion as a esul o a adia ion acciden , explosion, o i e;