Fill the gap(s): Digital Simulation to face the post-bubble challenge

FILL THE GAP[S]: DIGITAL SIMULATION TO FACE THE POST BUBBLECHALLENGE Is it possible to define, through the use of simulation tools, a methodology of visualizationofthedegreeof"renting"oftheexistingemptyhousingstocktolinkitwith thesatisfactionoftheresidentialdemandsofcitizens,accordingtotheparametersthat characterizedthedifferentactorsinvolvedinthehousingprocess? Authors: JuanFranciscoFernandezRodriguez [email protected] Collaborators: IreneLuqueMartin CarlosJimenezCobano AlfonsoManuelOrtaRodriguez AndresFernandezGarcia Brief: Thereisnodoubtthatoneofthebiggestchallengesforurbanplanningnowadayshastodo withthereuseofthevacanthousingstockthatexistsinlotsofcitiesandtownsaroundus. SpainisoneoftheEuropeancountrieswiththehighestpercentageofemptyhouses,andin parallel with major problems to ensure the access to housing to the population. So, the solutionsforthisproblemnecessarilyinvolvesthedefinitionofstrategiestoputinusethe emptyhousesasthefirstresourcetosatisfythedemandsofcitizens. Theproblemariseswhenthischallengeisconsideredasaglobalphenomenon.Wetalk about empty housing under statistical parameters instead of making an approach to the problemfromthespecificstudyoftheexistinghousingstockineachmunicipality.Justthe definitionofthecharacteristicsoftheemptyhouses,thecausesofwhichtheyremainempty, andtheirdegreeof"renting",asaparameterthatexpressthefacilitytoputtheminuse,will beabletoevaluatethebeststrategiestoactonthemandofferananswertothespecific demandsineachcase. Thebroadknowledgeoftheunderusedstockcharacteristicsthelocation,age,estateof conservation,tenure,orcausesthatremainthemunoccupiedaswellastheinformation aboutapplicantsofhouses,abouttheirresidentialneedsandaccesscapabilities,willbethe keytoreachourpurpose,beingnecessaryforthattomanagelargeamountsofinformation, fromdifferentnatureandsource,inaprocessthatfurthersimplificationsmustseekcomplex solutions. At thatpointitwillbenecessarytoincorporatetothestudyofthephenomenonofempty housingtheuseofmodelingandsimulationtools,abletolinkthecharacteristicsofdifferent actors involved in the housing process (applicants, owners, technicians, social entities, administration),asamethodologyneededtounderstandthedynamicsgeneratedbetween themtosettledownthebasisforthedevelopmentofsubsequentphasesofdecisioninthe residentialplanning. Inthiscontexttheaimofthisproposalwillbetoanalyzehowtheincorporationofmultiagent simulationtoolstotheprocessoflinkingthevacantdwellingsandresidentialdemandswill allowtovisualizethedegreeof"renting"oftheexistingemptyhousingstockatthelocalfield, toestablishfurtherstrategiestosolvethesocialchallengeofaccesstohousingbyputting theminuse. ODDProtocol: 1.PURPOSE Theaimofthemodelwillbetosimulatetheprocessofputinuseofemptyhousingand satisfactionofresidentialdemandswiththeparticipationofthedifferentelementsinvolved, todeterminethevariationofthepercentageofvacanthousesoverthetime,torelatethe maximumandminimumpeakswiththefactorsthatcausethem. 2.ENTITIES,VARIABLESANDSCALES Themodelwillconsistofpatches,globalvariablesandagents,whicharedefinedas: PATCHES Wewilldefinethreekindofpatches,dependingontheuseofgroundaccordingtourban classifications: 1.RESIDENTIAL 2.PUBLICSPACE 3.COMMERCIAL Allthehousesdefinedinthemodelwillbelinkedtoresidentialpatches,beingdefinedas:1 residentialpatch=1house We will assign a characteristic to the patches, which will be the “environment condition” linkedtothedegreeofattractionofahouseforapplicantsdependingonthekindofpatches aroundit: Environmentcondition: 0.Allpatchesaroundareresidential 1.Allpatchesaroundarepublicspace 2.Allpatchesaroundarecommercial 3.Patchesaroundareamixofresidential/publicspace/commercial AGENTS We will define two different agents in the model; Houses and Applicants (demand). The variablesthatcharacterizetheseagentsare: HOUSE: Occupied:Yes/No Stateofconservation:Good/Bad/Regular Age:0(<5years)/1(525years)/2(2550years)/3(>50years) Price:High/Medium/Low Capacity:16people Theownerofthehousewillbeanattributeofthehouse,withitsownattributes,whichwillbe linkedtocharacteristicsoftheapplicantdesiredbytheowner. Laboralstatusdesired:Unemployed/Student/Employed Agedesired:Young/Adult/Elderly APPLICANT: Hasahouse?:Yes/No Environmentcondition:0/1/2/3 Stateofconservationsearched:Good/Bad/Regular Budget:High/Medium/Low Ageofapplicant:Young/Adult/Elderly Membersofthefamily:(16) Employmentstatus:Unemployed/Student/Employed GLOBALVARIABLE: FinallywewilldefineaGlobalVariable,whichwillbeassumedbythegovernment,which willbecharacterizedbyitshelptoapplicantstoaccesstohousing. GOVERNMENT Guarantorofaccesstohousing(byspecificpolicies):Yes/No availablefunds:High/Medium/Low Scaleofassignation(fortherentofapplicants):low/medium/highincome Scaleaidgroups(fortheageofapplicants):Young/Adult/Elderly ThemodelisdevelopedtemporarilyinTICKS.Eachoneisequivalenttooneyear,whichis thetimethatisconsideredappropriatetoensureminimumstabilityforanapplicanttorenta house.Thattimealsocorrespondtoareasonableperiodoftimetoconsiderchangesinthe stateofthebuilding,whichwillinfluenceinthepricebytheincreaseoftheage.Itwillbea period,aswell,thatwillconsiderthechangesintheavailablefundsofthegovernment. 3.SUMMARYOFPROCESSANDPLANNING(SCHEDULE) Firstofallwewilldefinetheactionofeveryagentoftheprocess: Theactiontakenbytheapplicantwillbetoseekforahousetoberentedaccordingtoits demandsandcharacteristics. Theactionofhouseswillbetobeoccupied,byitscharacteristicsorbytheactionofthe ownerthatwilllookfortheeconomicbenefitofrentingitshouse. Theactionofthegovernmentwillbetoprovidehelptotheapplicantstoaccesstohousing. The point of start of the modeling process will be defined by the appearance of empty houses and applicants. From that point the first action taken by the applicants will be to occupythehousesthatlinkwiththeirdemandsdirectly(EASYRENTING) Housesthathavealowerorequalpricethantheirbudgets. Housesthathaveahigherorequalstateofconservationthansearched. Housesthathaveagreaterorequalcapacitythanthenumberofpeopleinthehousehold. From that point the following steps will be linked to the action of the owners and the government,justwhentheconditionsforthe“easyrenting”arenotsatisfied:  Negociation between owners and applicants to guarantee the occupation of houses (DIFFICULTRENTING).Inthisstepwecandefinetwosituations: 1.Theapplicantisemployedandthestateofconservationofthehouseishigherorequal thantheapplicant´ssearch.Theownerwillbringthepricedown1level. 2.Theapplicantisunemployedbutcouldgetfundsfromthegovernment,andthestateof conservation ofthehouse is higherorequalthanthe applicant´ssearch.The ownerwill bringthepricedown1level. Providehelptotheapplicantsfromthegovernment(RENTINGWITHHELP).Whenitisnot possiblethe“easy”or“difficultrenting”,theconditionstogethelpfromthegovernmentwill betohaveavailablefundsandthattheapplicant´scharacteristicslinkwiththeconditionsof assignation. Over the time the state of conservation and age of houses will change, as well as their qualityandvalue.Theageofapplicantsandemploymentsituationwillchangetoo.Atthe sametimethegovernmentconditions willchange,providingornotsupporttoapplicants, andsothemodelwillchangetoo. 4.DESIGNCONCEPTS: Thebasictheorythatthismodelandsimulationistryingtosupportisthattheconvergence amongalltheagentsinvolvedinthehousingprocesswill,despitethelimitationsofeither agents,ensuretheoccupationofemptyhousesandsatisfactionoftheneedsofthedemand underasystemstableoverthetime. Asastrategytodevelopthemodelwewillstablishthecausesthataredeterminingfactorsto guarantee the occupation of empty houses as variables of the different agents of the process,aswellastherelationshipsestablishedbetweenthem. The system will initially be defined by five stages of work in the different scales of relationshipbetweenthoseagentsinvolvedintheprocess.Thesestagesare: 1.Managementofadministrativedatafromsocialsources. 2. Incorporation of information about empty housing (visit, inspection) and housing applicants(survey,interview)asthefirststeptolocatepotentially“renting”houses. 3.Inclusionofdataaboutpotentially“renting”housingowners. 4. Definition of the degree of "renting" of existing empty houses, acording to the data acquiredinprevioussteps. 5.Definitionofmanagementstrategiestoputinuseemptyhousing. Thusthecharacteristicsofapplicantswillbelinkedtovacantdwellingsinafirststep,withthe owners appearing in the negotiation with the applicants when, for their conditions, it is necessary. The guarantee that applicants can offer to owners will have to do with their employmentsituation,economicstatus,orthecapabilitytogetsupportfromthegovernment, actingaccordingtoitsbudgetcapacityandpoliticalwill. Themodelwilltrytovisualizethedegreeof"renting"ofemptyhousing,definedasthefactor thatwilllinkthedegreeoffacilityofrentingahouseandthedegreeofstableguaranteefor the applicant. Under this idea we will define as degree of “renting” level 1 (DR1), those casesinwhichwehave“easyrenting”houseswithapplicantsthatremaininthemoverthe time.Therateofthisdegreewillhavealowerlevel(DR2)linkedtohousesoccupiedinlater steps of the process (“difficult renting” or “renting with help”) and applicants that can not remaininthosehousesforastableperiodoftime.Thelowestlevelofthedegreeof“renting” (DR3)willbelinkedtohousesthatcannotbeoccupiedintheprocess. 5.INITIALIZATION Initsinitialstatethemodeliscomposedofadistribution ofpatchesofresidential,public spaceandcommercialuse,randomlydistributed.Eachresidentialpatchcontainsahouse while in public spaces appear applicants waiting for the process of occupation of empty housingtostart. Intheinitialversionofthemodelthephysicalenvironmentwillbeabstractandfollowingthe description given previously. In a second version of the model, it was improved by incorporating a PNG file corresponding to a real sector of the municipality under study. Linking three assigned colors to the plots represented in it, the different type of patches; residential,publicspaceorcommercial,arelocatedanddistributedinaspatialway. Flowchart: Code:N3_code.zip ViewitonGithub:https://github.com/culturadigital/forma15/blob/master/N3.nlogo Modelsnapshots: Fig.1:Initialstate.Initialversionofthemodel Fig.2:Stateinprocess.Initialversionofthemodel Fig.3:Initialstate.Version2ofmodelwithspatialdistributionasrealplane Fig.4:Stateinprocess.Version2ofmodelwithspatialdistributionasrealplane Fig.5:Diagramdegreeof"renting" Conclusions: Asconclusionsofthe work developedduringtheworkshop,asacollectiveprocess,and fromthespecificresultsgivenbythemodel,wewillevaluatetheresultsattendingtothree pointsofview: 1.Thebenefitsoftheworkshopprocessfortheresearchandthetopicproposed:Firstofall wewilltalkabouttheseitemsthat,beingpartoftheoriginalproposal,wasnecessaryto“re thinking”fromamultidisciplinarygroupperspective,andhowthesenewdefinitionsbringto the research a richer point of view. The specific definition of who the agents are, their actions, variables and relationships, and the translation of these concepts to a different languagesupposednewwaysofthinkingthathelpedustounderstandthesystem,aswell astheaidsofthemodelweweresearching. 2.Thespecificinformationgivenbythemodelandthesimulationdeveloped:Afterthinking aboutalltheelementsinvolvedinmakingthesystemworks,theresultsgivenbythemodel bringtotheresearchanswersthroughthesimulationandthegraphicslinkedtoit.Inthis case,wecandeterminatehowthepercentageofemptyhousesandapplicantsvaryoverthe time,howthemaximumpeaksarerelatedtotheworstemploymentsituationofapplicants and periods of time without help of the government, and how the changes of the age of housesaffectstothestateofconservationandprices. 3.Thekeystoworkinthefutureinamorecomplexmodel:Afterthisfirstapproachtothe multiagent simulation tools, it will be necessary to keep on working in a more complex system able to incorporate agents and variables ignored in this first step, to reach more specificresults.Inthisway,andafterincorporatingthisnewcomplexitytothemodel,there areseveralideasdrawnasconclusionsduringtheworkshopthatwillbefuturelinesofwork: a.Representinthemodelpreviousperiodsoftimetoevaluatehowtheresultsobtainedcan linkwiththerealsituationlived,asawayofvalidatingthemodel. b.Afterdefiningthemeaningofdegreeof“renting”inthemodel,andwiththefirstapproach tothespatialviewoftheresultsinarealmap,wewilldefineinageographicalwaythis degreeof“renting”inacomplexmodel,todeterminatewhichpartsofthecityareinabest positiontobeoccupied. References: "Fromemptypropertiestonewhomes.Council`sEmptyHomeStrategies".StratfordOn AvonDistrictCouncil.https://www.stratford.gov.uk/... "EstudiodelnúmerodeviviendavacíaenAndoain".AmaiaLujambio.Departamentode serviciossocialesdelayuntamientodeAndoain.https://jonpelaez.files.wordpress.com/...pdf "Guíamodeloparalaelaboracióndeplanesmunicipalesdeviviendaysuelo".Lajuntade Andalucíalanzaestainiciativavinculadaalplanmarcodevivienda,segúnelcualseránlos municipiosquienes,atravésdeestafiguradeplaneamiento,realizaránelanálisisdesu parquedeviviendaynecesidadesydemandaspara,adoptarlasmedidasnecesariaspara atenderlas.http://www.juntadeandalucia.es/fomentoyvivienda/... 596 ACRES. Proyecto desarrollado en Nueva York, dirigido a visibilizar la enorme cantidaddeespaciodisponibleysinusoquepodríaofrecersecomonuevosespacioslibre yzonasverdescomunitariasenbarriosdondeescasean.Presentanunaprimeraetapade mapeo,catalogaciónyposteriorapropiación,poniendoenrelaciónestosespaciosconlas necesidadesdelascomunidadesinteresadasensupuestaenuso.http://596acres.org/es [IM]POSSIBLELIVING.ElobjetivodeestainiciativadesarrolladaenItaliaesvisibilizarlos edificios infrautilizados que puedan ser susceptible de un uso más intensivo, definiendo para ellos diferentes categorías según su uso previo, propiedad, características, para catalizarprocesosdecolaboraciónentrepersonasycolectivosquequierandarsoluciones creativas.http://www.impossibleliving.com View publication statsView publication stats