Alternative approaches to medium-long term sea level rise mapping in Southern Miami Beach (Florida, USA)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate three temporal mapping approaches to predict Sea Level Rise (SLR) in the Southern Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA. These three temporal approaches provide an alternative to SLR prediction by the common binary method based on Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). The first temporal approach gathers seven theoretical and semi-empirical scenarios of SLR by the end the century in a single map. The second temporal approach is based on the calculation of the time horizon to inundate each cell of the DEM during ordinary high tides. Finally, the third temporal approach maps the minimum average rate of SLR by which a cell will be inundated by the year 2100. These approaches indicate that, in the second half of the 21st century, a large area on the coast of Miami will be inundated due to SLR. A survey conducted with a group of 73 experts concluded that these approaches were more suitable than other classical approaches for mapping SLR in urban areas.