Renewables versus efficiency. A comparison for Spain

1876-6102 © 2016 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Pee - e iew by he scien i ic con e ence commi ee o EEIC | CIEE 2016 unde esponsibili y o Gues Edi o s. doi: 10.1016/j.egyp o.2016.12.101 1s Ene gy Economics Ibe ian Con e ence, EEIC | CIEE 2016, Feb ua y 4-5, Lisbon, Po ugal, APEEN (www.apeen.o g) and AEEE (www.aeee.es) Renewables e sus e iciency. A compa ison o Spain Juan-Manuel Roldan-Fe nandeza a *, Manuel Bu gos-Payana, Jesus-Manuel Riquelme-San osa and Angel-Luis T igo-Ga ciaa aUni e si y o Se illa, Camino de los Descub imien os, s/n. Se illa 41092, Spain Abs ac Along he las decades, enewable ene gy (especially wind) in Spain has unde gone a signi ican de elopmen (lead by a small g oup o enewable p omo e s suppo ed by ins i u ional policies), con ibu ing signi ican ly o elec ic gene a ion mix (42.8% enewable in 2014). On he con a y, he p omo ion o ene gy e iciency ac ions (accomplished by a la ge numbe o indus ial and domes ic consume s ha a e e y poo ly suppo ed by ene gy policies), a e s ill li le explo ed. Acco ding o ODYSSEE-MURE, ene gy e iciency a he EU-28 le el imp o ed by 1.2%/yea on a e age om 2000 o 2013, while o he case o Spain, he a e o imp o emen was only 0.6 %/yea on a e age h oughou ha pe iod ( he lowes a e o ene gy e iciency imp o emen in he EU-28). This wo k seeks o compa e he in eg a ion o enewable p oduc ion wi h ene gy e iciency plans, in o de o ad ance hei po en ial economic impac in he wholesale ma ke and consume s. To each ha goal, he hou ly ma ke da a e ie ed om he Spanish/Ibe ian Ma ke Ope a o (OMIE) o 2014 will be used as a base. Then, a se o pseudo- heu is ic scena ios wi h in eg a ion o enewable p oduc ion and ene gy e iciency (load sa ing) will be elabo a ed and analyzed o quan i y wha a e expec ed o be he main e ec s on he Spanish elec ici y ma ke and consume s. The esul s will show ha ene gy e iciency exhibi s he bes pe o mance in e ms o economic e iciency (less cos o he aded ene gy) and en i onmen al sus ainabili y (g ea e eplacemen o ossil uels). © 2016 Published by Else ie L d. Selec ion and/o pee - e iew unde esponsibili y o [name o ganize ] Elec ici y ma ke s; Renewable ene gy; Ene gy e iciency; Me i -o de e ec . * Co esponding au ho . Tel.: +34 954487283; ax: +34 954487284. E-mail add ess: jm olda[email p o ec ed]s. © 2016 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Pee - e iew by he scien i ic con e ence commi ee o EEIC | CIEE 2016 unde esponsibili y o Gues Edi o s. Juan-Manuel Roldan-Fe nandez e al. / Ene gy P ocedia 106 ( 2016 ) 14 – 23 15 1. In oduc ion O e ecen yea s he e has been a signi ican e o in he elec ical sys ems o he EU coun ies and many o he s wo ldwide, o ul ill he manda o y commi men s de i ed om he Kyo o P o ocol and i s successo s [1,2]. The eby, he gene a ion lee has di e si ied signi ican ly in e ms o echnology gene a ion, mainly due o la ge-scale in eg a ion o p oduc ion based on enewable ene gy. Consequen ly, elec ical sys ems a e e ol ing owa ds a gene a ion lee ha is much mo e di e se, dispe sed and decen alized, wi h a much la ge numbe o gene a o s, in which he enewable gene a ion has a signi ican and g owing sha e. The educ ion o he demand ia he p omo ion o load sa ing p og ams o he enac men ene gy e iciency policies could also be ano he less explo ed ool o accomplish he commi men s om he Kyo o P o ocol. In ac , he e exis a ce ain syne gy be ween ene gy e iciency and enewables since when he demand dec eases, a ixed amoun o enewable p oduc ion gi es place o a g ea e sha e o enewables on he gene a ion mix. In any case, mos coun ies ha e chosen he de elopmen o enewables as a means o ul ill i s en i onmen al commi men s. This is he case o Spain whe e along he las decades, enewable ene gy (especially wind) has unde gone a signi ican de elopmen . This g ow h has been led by a ela i ely small g oup o enewable p omo e s suppo ed by ins i u ional policies, and ha e made enewables o be a signi ican con ibu o o elec ic gene a ion mix (42.8% enewable, 20.4% wind in 2014 [3]). On he con a y, he p omo ion o ene gy e iciency ac ions, accomplished by a la ge numbe o indus ial and domes ic consume s ha a e e y poo ly suppo ed by ene gy policies, s ill a e li le explo ed. Acco ding o ODYSSEE-MURE [4], ene gy e iciency a he EU-28 le el imp o ed by 1.2%/yea on a e age om 2000 o 2013 (abou 15% o e he pe iod). Howe e , he pace o p og ess has slowed down since he economic c isis: he annual gain be ween 2000 and 2007 has d opped om 1.3%/yea o 1%/yea be ween 2007 and 2013. Fo he case o Spain, ene gy e iciency only imp o ed on a e age by 0.6 %/yea h oughou ha pe iod, which is he lowes a e o ene gy e iciency imp o emen in he EU-28. Mo eo e , ene gy conse a ion policies seem especially well sui ed o Spain due o i s high le el o ene gy dependence. Acco ding o Eu os a [5] he Spanish a e o g oss ene gy dependency is always much highe han ha o he EU a e age. Fo 2013, he le el o g oss dependence o Spain was 70.5% in 2013, well abo e he 53.2% o he UE a e age. This wo k seeks o compa e hese wo app oaches o he Spanish case: he in eg a ion o enewable p oduc ion and he de elopmen ene gy e iciency p og ams, in o de o ad ance hei po en ial impac on he elec ici y ma ke . Wi h his pu pose, i s a quali a i e model, based on he linea iza ion o he wholesale ma ke a ound he clea ing poin , is used o examine some basic hypo heses. An app op ia e se o empi ical-based scena ios wi h enewables and ene gy e iciency a e hen gene a ed om he e ie ed his o ical in o ma ion o he Ibe ian/Spanish Ma ke Ope a o (OMIE) o he yea 2014, in o de o quan i y he main e ec s on he ma ke . The con en o he pape is as ollows. A e he in oduc ion, he Spanish/Ibe ian elec ici y ma ke is b ie ly desc ibed and a quali a i e model, based on he linea iza ion o he ma ke , is used o examine some basic hypo hesis ega ding he expec ed e ec s o enewables and ene gy e iciency. The hou ly me i -o de gene a ion and demand cu es h oughou 2014, e ie ed om he a chi e o he Ma ke Ope a o (OMIE) a e hen used as sou ce da a o he gene a ion o ealis ic enewables and ene gy e iciency scena ios. The main po en ial e ec s o enewables and ene gy e iciency on he ma ke a e hen quan i ied and analyzed. Finally, he pape closes wi h he main indings o he compa ison. 16 Juan-Manuel Roldan-Fe nandez e al. / Ene gy P ocedia 106 ( 2016 ) 14 – 23 1.1. The Ibe ian ma ke o elec ici y OMIE is he Ma ke Ope a o o he Ibe ian Elec ici y Ma ke , which is he Eu opean egional ma ke o Spain and Po ugal. Al hough OMIE has been in eg a ed in o he Eu opean P ice Coupling (EPC) since 2014, his does no a ec he ac ual ma ke ules [6]. The ma ke is o ganized as a sequence o ma ke s: he day-ahead ma ke , he in a-day ma ke , wi h six sessions a day, which ope a es close o eal ime, and he ancilla y se ices ma ke . The daily ma ke in ol es he scheduling o elec ici y ansac ions o he day ahead, which is pe o med h ough he submi al o elec ici y sale and pu chase bids by ma ke agen s. The daily ma ke is composed o 24 hou ly ma ke s ha clea once a day. On he supply side, he Ibe ian elec ici y p oduce s submi hei bids speci ying he p ice a which hey a e willing o p oduce a gi en amoun o ou pu om each o hei p oduc ion uni s, one day ahead. Simila ly, demand agen s submi hei bids speci ying he p ice a which hey a e willing o buy a gi en amoun o ene gy. Once he supply and demand bids ha e been submi ed by hei agen s, he Ma ke Ope a o (OMIE) c ea es a me i -o de dispa ch, o e e y hou o he day ahead, by o de ing he supply bids in ascending p ice o de and demand bids in descending o de . The hou ly equilib ium p ice and he gene a ion dispa ch a e de e mined h ough ma ke clea ing, i.e. by compu ing he in e sec ion be ween he supply and demand cu es. Condi ional on being dispa ched, he p ice o be ecei ed o paid by he ma ke pa icipan s is se acco ding o a uni o m-p ice auc ion. I espec i e o hei bids, he p ice p oduce s ecei e, o he p ice paid by demand uni s is se equal o he highes accep ed supply bid: he so-called sys em ma ginal p ice. Two kinds o bids a e conside ed in he Ibe ian Elec ici y Ma ke : simple and complex bids. Simple bids a e jus simple p ice and amoun o ene gy bids. Complex bids a e bids ( o gene a o s only) which include any o he ollowing condi ions: indi isibili y o blocks o ene gy, minimum income, p og ammed s ops and load amps. Fi s , he simple ma ching p ocedu e o he Ma ke Ope a o (OMIE) inds a solu ion o simple bids (Fig. 1). An op imiza ion algo i hm, EUPHEMIA, hen inds a new solu ion which akes complex o e bids in o accoun [6]. Subsequen ly, he inal clea ing p ice and aded ene gy a e se o he conside ed hou . Finally, he Sys em Ope a o (REE – Red Eléc ica de España) alida es he schedule o he uni s while conside ing he elec ical sys em’s echnical cons ain s. Fig. 1. Me i o de gene a ion and demand cu es o a peak hou (20:00 h) in a win e wo king day (Tuesday, Feb ua y 10, 2015) co esponding o he Ibe ian ma ke , OMIE. Example o simple ( ade ene gy, Wis = 36.81 GWh; clea ing p ice, pis = 49.57 €/MWh) and complex ma ching ules ( aded ene gy, Wi = 34.18 GWh; clea ing p ice, pi = 71.00 €/MWh) [7] 0 40 80 120 160 200 010 20 30 40 50 60 70 Gene a ion simple bids Demand simple bids Gene a ion clea ed Demand clea ed pG(W) p D (W) Ene gy (GWh) P ice (€/MWh) Wi piComplex ma ching Simple ma ching Juan-Manuel Roldan-Fe nandez e al. / Ene gy P ocedia 106 ( 2016 ) 14 – 23 17 As o en happens in op imiza ion p oblems, an inc ease in he numbe o es ic ions leads o a deg ada ion o he op imali y o he solu ion. In he ma ke case, complex o e bids (signi ican ly) inc ease he inal clea ing p ice and (sligh ly) educe he aded ene gy as shown in Fig. 1. 2. Quali a i e Analysis o he Wholesale Ma ke In Fig. 2 can be seen bo h he me i -o de gene a ion cu e, pG = pG(W), and he demand cu e, pD = pD(W), as well as he aded ene gy (Wi = 34183.4 MWh) and he ma ching clea ing p ice (pi = 71.00 €/MWh) o a peak hou (20:00 h) on a win e wo kday (Tuesday, Feb ua y 10, 2015) co esponding o he wholesale Ibe ian ma ke [7]. By i s own na u e, he supply cu e, pG = pG(W), has a posi i e slope, and he demand cu e, pD = pD(W), has a e y nega i e slope. I he supply and demand cu es we e con inuous (and no s epped) and mG = dpG(W)/dW > 0 and mD = dpD(W)/dW << 0 we e, espec i ely, he slopes o he supply (mG = 1.4 €/GWh) and demand cu es (mD = –13.5 €/GWh) a he ini ial clea ing poin (A in Fig. 2), hen bo h he supply and demand cu es could be linea ly app oxima ed, in he su oundings o he ini ial clea ing poin (Wi,pi), as: () ( ) GiGiiGiGGiG pW p mWW p mW mW p mW   () ( ) DiDiiDiDDiD pW p mWW p mW mW p mW   Whe e he espec i e o dina es a he o igin a e Gi i G i ppmW  and Di i D i ppmW  The o al ini ial income o he p oduce s o he o al ini ial cos o consume s, C(Wi), de i ed om he ene gy ading in he wholesale ma ke , conside ing only he ma ke ules, is C(Wi)= Wi · pi: Fig. 2. Me i o de gene a ion, pG = pG(W), and demand, pD = pD(W), cu es as well as he aded ene gy, Wi = 34.18 GWh, and he ma ching clea ing p ice, pi = 71.00 €/MWh, o a peak hou (20:00 h) in a win e wo king day (Tuesday, Feb ua y 10, 2015) co esponding o he wholesale Ibe ian ma ke [7]. Linea iza ion o he ma ke a ound he ini ial ma ching poin Wi h his linea ized ma ke model a ound he clea ing poin , a compa ison be ween he in luence o he in eg a ion o enewable gene a ion and DSM (ene gy e iciency) can be e alua ed in o de o ad ance o he po en ial e ec s o hese measu emen s on he pe o mance o he ma ke . I mus be ema ked ha since he wholesale ma ke is a ma ginal ma ke , he clea ing poin is he mos impo an 0 20 40 60 80 100 010 20 30 40 50 p G (W) ≈p Gi + m G W Gene a ion me i -o de simple bids Demand me i -o de simple bids Gene a ion clea ed Ene gy (GWh) P ice (€/MWh) Demand clea ed Wi piA(Wi,pi) pD(W) ≈pDi + mDW p G (W) pD(W) 18 Juan-Manuel Roldan-Fe nandez e al. / Ene gy P ocedia 106 ( 2016 ) 14 – 23 ac o o know he impac o hese measu emen s. Al hough he linea app oxima ions o he me i -o de cu es (pG ≈ pGi + mGW and pD ≈ pDi + mDW) di e om he ac ual p oduc ion and demand cu es (pG = pG(W) and pD = pD(W)), bo h se s o cu es can lead o he same (o e y close) clea ing poin . This inally de e mines he p ice ha e e y buye has o pay o p oduce s and he amoun o ene gy ha gene a o s ha e o deli e o he cus ome s. 2.1. In eg a ion o enewable ene gy The Ibe ian ma ke egula ion cu en ly equi es he Ma ke Ope a o o include all bids ecei ed om enewable gene a o s as long as hey cause no echnical di icul y o he ope a ion o he sys em. The e o e, he in eg a ion o new enewable gene a ion bids (∆ER > 0) a e y low (o e en null) ma ginal p ice yields a mainly igh -hand-side shi o he ini ial me i -o de gene a ion cu e. The linea app oxima ion o his new supply cu e, pGR = pGR(W), is shown in Fig. 3 as a s aigh line pa allel o he p imi i e gene a ion cu e: ()() () GR G R Gi G R Gi G R G GRi G pW pW E p mW E p mE mWp mW ' ' '  Whe e he o dina e a he o igin is: () GRi Gi G R i G i R ppmEpmWE '  ' Wi h his linea ized ma ke model, he new clea ing p ice and aded ene gy (B shown in Fig. 3) can be ob ained by equa ing he new gene a ion cu e wi h he demand cu e: () () GR GRi G D Di D pW p mWpW p mW  Fig. 3. Me i o de gene a ion, pG = pG(W), and demand, pD = pD(W), cu es and ma ching clea ing p ice (pi = 71.00 €/MWh) and aded ene gy (Wi = 34.18 GWh) o a peak hou (20:00 h) in a win e wo king day (Tuesday, Feb ua y 10, 2015) co esponding o he wholesale Ibe ian ma ke [7]. Changes in he ma ke -clea ing p ice and ene gy aded due o he in eg a ion o new enewable gene a ion and due o he educ ion o he demand de i ed om he imp o emen o ene gy e iciency The aded ene gy, W = W(ΔER), can now be exp essed as: () () () Di GRi i D i i G i R G RiRiR GD GD GD pp pmWpmWE m WE W E W WE mm mm mm ' ' ' ''   0 20 40 60 80 100 010 20 30 40 50 p DL (W) = p D (W - ΔE L ) p G (W) p GR (W) = p G (W + ΔE R ) p D (W) W(ΔE L )W(ΔE R ) Gene a ion me i -o de simple bids Demand me i -o de simple bids Gene a ion clea ed Ene gy (GWh) P ice (€/MWh) Demand clea ed ΔE L = ΔE R ΔW(ΔE L ) ΔW(ΔE R ) W i A(W i ,p i ) Δp(ΔE L )= Δp(ΔE R ) p DL (ΔE L )= p GR (ΔE R ) p i C(p L ,W L )B(p R ,W R ) ΔE L ΔE R 0 20 40 60 80 100 010 20 30 40 50 p DL (W) = p D (W - ΔE L ) p G (W) p GR (W) = p G (W + ΔE R ) p D (W) W(ΔE L )W(ΔE R ) Gene a ion me i -o de simple bids Demand me i -o de simple bids Gene a ion clea ed Ene gy (GWh) P ice (€/MWh) Demand clea ed ΔE L = ΔE R ΔW(ΔE L ) ΔW(ΔE R ) W i A(W i ,p i ) Δp(ΔE L )= Δp(ΔE R ) p DL (ΔE L )= p GR (ΔE R ) p i Δp(ΔE L )= Δp(ΔE R ) p DL (ΔE L )= p GR (ΔE R ) p i C(p L ,W L )B(p R ,W R ) ΔE L ΔE R Juan-Manuel Roldan-Fe nandez e al. / Ene gy P ocedia 106 ( 2016 ) 14 – 23 19 As a esul , he inc emen o aded ene gy can be app oxima ed as: () 0 G RR GD m WE E mm '' '!  The clea ing p ice, pGR (W) = pD(W), becomes: ( ( )) ( ( )) ( ) GD GR i R GRi G i R i R i R R GD mm pWW WE p mW WE p E p p E mm ''  ''  ' ''  whe e he p ice a ia ion ( educ ion) is: () 0 GD RR R GD mm pE E mm '' '  I should be obse ed ha , since he slope o he supply is smalle han ha co esponding o he demand cu e, in absolu e alues (0 < mG << |mD|), he inc emen in aded ene gy is signi ican ly less han he inc emen in enewable ene gy bids in eg a ed in o he ma ke : () 01 G R RGD m WE Emm '' ' This means ha he clea ing o a ce ain amoun o enewable ene gy bids, ΔER, by he Ma ke Ope a o , lea es ou almos he same amoun o ene gy bids om o he mo e expensi e and p obably pollu ing p oduc ion echnologies, ΔW(ΔER) << ΔER, and leads o a educ ion o he hou ly clea ing p ice p opo ional o he amoun o clea ed enewable ene gy. This is he base o he so-called me i -o de e ec o enewable ene gy [8-12]. 2.2. Ene gy e iciency The consume s ha apply load sa ing o ene gy e iciency p og ams can p o i om a educ ion in he elec ici y ene gy bill, mainly due o a educ ion o he demanded ene gy. The cu ailmen o ce ain amoun o demand bids (∆EL > 0) a high ma ginal p ice, whe e he ene gy e iciency ac ions would be mo e cos -e icien , mainly esul s in a le -shi ing o he ini ial me i o de demand cu e. The linea app oxima ion o his new demand cu e, pDL = pDL(W), is shown in Fig. 3 as a s aigh line pa allel o he p imi i e demand cu e: ()() () DL D L Di D L Di D L D DLi D pW pW E p mW E p mE mW p mW ' ' '  Whe e () DLi Di D L i D i L ppmEpmWE '  ' The new clea ing p ice and aded ene gy (C in Fig. 3) can now be ob ained by equa ing he new ( educed) demand cu e wi h he p imi i e gene a ion cu e. I is wo h no ing ha , since he slope o he supply is less inclined han ha co esponding o he demand cu e, in absolu e alue (0 < mG << |mD|), he educ ion in aded ene gy is simila o (bu smalle han) ha o he sa ed load bids: () 01 LD LGD WE m Emm '' !! ' As a esul , he educ ion o an amoun o demand bids esul ing om a ce ain ene gy e iciency imp o emen o he load, ΔEL, causes he Ma ke Ope a o o lea e ou almos he same quan i y o gene a ion bids om p oduc ion echnologies o a mo e expensi e na u e, WL(ΔEL) # ΔEL, and his leads 20 Juan-Manuel Roldan-Fe nandez e al. / Ene gy P ocedia 106 ( 2016 ) 14 – 23 o a educ ion o he clea ing p ice and cos o he aded ene gy p opo ional o he amoun o sa ed ene gy bids. This o ms he base o wha could be called he me i -o de e ec o he ene gy e iciency, which is e y simila o ha co esponding o enewables. Finally, he ollowing hypo heses a e s a ed: x The educ ions in he clea ing p ice o he enewable and ene gy e iciency scena ios a e he same. x The ene gy e iciency scena io leads o a educ ion in he aded ene gy which is almos equal o ha o sa ed ene gy, while he enewable scena io leads o a sligh inc emen in he aded ene gy. This means ha he ene gy e iciency is (sligh ly) mo e e ec i e han enewables in elimina ing ( eplacing) he mo e expensi e and p obably pollu ing gene a ion echnology. x The educ ion o he cos o he aded ene gy in he ene gy e iciency scena io is g ea e han ha co esponding o he enewable scena io, since he educ ion in he e iciency scena io p o i s om bo h he educ ion in he clea ing p ice and om he educ ion in he amoun o aded ene gy. 3. Me hodology and Resul s The hou ly me i -o de gene a ion and demand cu es o he yea 2014 ha e been e ie ed om he his o ic da a a chi e o he Ibe ian Ma ke Ope a o [7]. Tha means 8760 hou ly ma ke s wi h hund eds o p oduc ion and demand bids aking pa in each hou ly ma ke . This as amoun o hou ly ma ke bids handled o each scena io made desi able a simpli ica ion in he complex clea ing ules o he Ma ke Ope a o in o de o simula e new scena ios. As a consequence, a simpli ied p ocedu e simila o ha used by he Ma ke Ope a o (OMIE) is applied wi h he in en ion o pe o ming a quan i a i e analysis o he scena ios. Fo each new scena io analyzed, new hou ly me i -o de gene a ion and/o demand cu es a e p oduced by i s loca ing he bids o he ype o agen unde in e es (i.e. enewables o consume s bids) in he hou ly me i -o de (gene a ion and/o demand) cu es. The bids unde in e es a e hen modi ied (amoun o ene gy and p ice) by aking in o accoun he app op ia e cha ac e is ics o he scena io unde conside a ion. The modi ied bids co esponding o he new scena io a e subsequen ly inse ed p ope ly in o he e ie ed hou ly me i -o de cu es: upwa d p ice o de o bids in he gene a ion cu es, and downwa d o de o he bids in he demand cu es. When new ma ke scena ios a e de eloped h ough he modi ica ion o he supply and/o demand cu es, i is necessa y o conside ha he bids o he o he agen s would emain he same when inc easing o educing new gene a ion o demand bids. Fo una ely, his hypo hesis o a pe ec ma ke can be conside ed ul illed since each ma ke agen should elabo a e hei bids wi hou any knowledge o he bids o he o he agen s. Finally, he ma ching poin co esponding o he new scena io is de e mined as he in e sec ion o he modi ied gene a ion and demand cu es. Fo example, in o de o conside he case o he in eg a ion o an amoun o enewable ene gy, ΔER, i s he o iginal hou ly me i -o de gene a ion (pG = pG(W)) and demand (pD = pD(W)) cu es a e e ie ed, as shown in Fig. 4. Since enewable gene a o s o e ene gy a a e y low (e en null) p ice, he o iginal bids co esponding o he enewable gene a ion uni s can be ound in he ini ial la egion ( i s s eps) o he me i -o de gene a ion cu e. The o iginal enewable bids a e now p opo ionally inc eased un il he a ge ed amoun (ΔER) is eached. When needed, he o iginal hou ly-clea ed cu es a e comple ed wi h he single-bid cu e om he ini ial clea ing poin onwa ds, as shown in Fig. 4. In his way, a new me i -o de gene a ion cu e, pGR = pGR(W), is c ea ed h ough he p ope in eg a ion (upwa d p ice) o hese modi ied bids in he gene a ion cu e. This new me i -o de gene a ion cu e essen ially esul s in a igh -hand-shi ing o he ini ial clea ed supply cu e by an amoun equal o ΔER. Finally, he new clea ing poin (B in Fig. 4) can Juan-Manuel Roldan-Fe nandez e al. / Ene gy P ocedia 106 ( 2016 ) 14 – 23 21 be de e mined as he c ossing poin o he new igh -hand-shi ed gene a ion cu e, pGR = pGR(W), wi h he o iginal demand cu e, pD = pD(W). Fig. 4 also shows he case o he educ ion o he demand in an amoun o load, ΔEL, due o, o example, ene gy sa ing o small consume s. Since small consume s demand ene gy a he highes p ice, hei p imi i e bids a e always ound in he ini ial la egion o maximum p ice o he me i -o de demand cu e. The o iginal bids o he small-consume ade s a e hen p opo ionally educed un il he a ge ed amoun (ΔEL) is eached. In his way, a new me i -o de o educed demand cu e, pDL = pDL(W), is c ea ed h ough he p ope in eg a ion (downwa d p ice) o hese modi ied bids in he demand cu e. This new me i -o de demand cu e essen ially esul s in a le -hand-shi ing o he ini ial clea ed demand cu e by an amoun equal o ΔEL, as shown in Fig. 4. Finally, he new clea ing poin (C in Fig. 4) can be de e mined as he in e sec ion o he new le -hand- shi ed educed-demand cu e, pDL = pDL(W), wi h he o iginal gene a ion cu e, pG = pG(W). Th ee scena ios a e gene a ed o 0.5%, 1% and 2% o load demand educ ion as well as he symme ical scena ios wi h 0.5%, 1% and 2% g owing o enewable ene gy. Tha gi es place o a o al o 6·8760 = 52560 hou ly ma ke s scena ios which mus be simula ed using he me hodology desc ibed abo e. The ob ained esul s a e summa ized in Table 1 and 2. Fig. 4. Hou ly me i -o de gene a ion, pG = pG(W), and demand, pD = pD(W), cu es and c ea ion o he new ( igh -shi ed) enewable gene a ion cu e, pGR = pGR(W), and o he new (le -shi ed) educed demand cu e, pDL = pDL(W). Mo e p ecisely, Table 1 summa izes he mean alues o he a ia ions o he annual aded ene gy, hou ly clea ing p ice and annual cos o he aded ene gy, while Table 2 shows he mean alues o he a e o a ia ion wi h he ene gy-sa ing and enewable bids o he annual aded ene gy, hou ly clea ing p ice and annual cos o he aded ene gy. As an icipa ed by he linea model app oxima ion, he esul s lead o he ollowing main conclusions: x Ene gy e iciency: The mean alues o he yea ly aded ene gy, he hou ly clea ing p ice and he annual cos o he aded ene gy a e always smalle han he co esponding o he base case, and hei educ ions g ow almos linea ly wi h he amoun o load-sa ing bids. x Renewables: The aded ene gy is always sligh ly g ea e ha he co esponding o de base case and i s inc emen g ows wi h he amoun o enewable bids. On he con a y, he clea ing p ice and he cos o he aded ene gy a e smalle han o he base case, and hei educ ions g ow wi h he quan i y o enewable bids. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 010 20 30 40 50 60 70 O e Simple bids Demand Simple bids O e Ma ched Demand Ma ched p G (W) p D (W) Ene gy (GWh) P ice (€/MWh) p GR (W) p DL (W) A B C W i p i ΔE R ΔE L 22 Juan-Manuel Roldan-Fe nandez e al. / Ene gy P ocedia 106 ( 2016 ) 14 – 23 Fo he same amoun o load-sa ing and enewable bids (ΔER = ΔEL = ΔE): x The clea ing p ice (and i s a ia ion) o ene gy e iciency is almos he same han o he co esponding enewable scena io, Δp(ΔER = ΔE) | Δp(ΔEL = ΔE). x The in ensi y o he a ia ion o he aded ene gy (absolu e alue), ΔW(ΔE)/ΔE, and cos o he aded ene gy, ΔC(ΔE)/ΔE, is always s onge o ene gy e iciency han o he co esponding enewable scena io. Mo e p ecisely, he in ensi ies a e (ΔW(ΔER)/ΔER)/(°ΔW(ΔEL)°/ΔEL) ≈ 2.4 and (ΔC(ΔER)/ΔER)/(ΔC(ΔEL)/ΔEL) ≈ 1.6, espec i ely. Table 1. Mean alues o he a ia ions o he yea ly aded ene gy, hou ly clea ing p ice and yea ly cos o he aded ene gy Spain 2014 Yea ly mean W = 221 TWh/y p = 42.13 €/MWh C = 9346 M€/y ΔE = 0.5% Load (0.90 TWh/y) ΔE = 1% Load (1.81 TWh/y) ΔE = 2% Load (3.62 TWh/y) Small consume s Uni s E iciency ΔEL* Renewable ΔER* E iciency ΔEL* Renewable ΔER* E iciency ΔEL* Renewable ΔER* ΔW(ΔE) GWh -610.96 246.81 -1237.44 478.10 -2476.90 954.19 Δp(ΔE) €/MWh -0.36 -0.36 -0.68 -0.68 -1.33 -1.33 ΔC(ΔE) M€ -104.89 -66.56 -204.17 -128.09 -401.06 -251.22 *ΔER = ΔEL = ΔE Table 2. Mean alues o he a io o a ia ion wi h he load sa ing o enewable bids o he annual aded ene gy, hou ly clea ing p ice and yea ly cos o he aded ene gy Spain 2014 Yea ly mean W = 221 TWh/y p = 42.13 €/MWh C = 9346 M€/y ΔE = 0.5% Load (0.90 TWh/y) ΔE = 1% Load (1.81 TWh/y) ΔE = 2% Load (3.62 TWh/y) Small consume s Uni s E iciency ΔEL* Renewable ΔER* E iciency ΔEL* Renewable ΔER* E iciency ΔEL* Renewable ΔER* ΔW(ΔE)/ΔE - -0.68 0.28 -0.67 0.28 -0.67 0.28 Δp(ΔE)/ΔE €/MWh2 -3.81·10-3 -3.81·10-3 -3.34·10-3 -3.34·10-3 -3.05·10-3 -3.05·10-3 ΔC(ΔE)/ΔE €/MWh -116.54 -73.95 -112.80 -70.77 -110.79 -69.40 4. Conclusions Renewables and ene gy e iciency pu a downwa d p essu e on he clea ing p ice and he o al cos o he aded ene gy in he wholesale ma ke . These educ ions a e mainly ela ed o he educ ion o he cos o he ossil uel necessa y o he ma ke ope a ion, de i ed om he ossil uel subs i u ed ( enewables) o a oided (ene gy e iciency). This wo k has shown he esul s o compa ing he po en ial economic impac in he Ibe ian elec ici y ma ke o he in eg a ion o enewable p oduc ion and ene gy e iciency. To each ha goal and o explo e some basic hypo heses, i s a quali a i e model based on he linea iza ion o he wholesale ma ke , has been used. Then, he yea 2014 has been analysed by using he hou ly Ibe ian Ma ke in o ma ion. An app op ia e se o heu is ic-based scena ios ha e been gene a ed including in eg a ion o enewable gene a ion as well as ene gy e iciency, in o de o o eseen he main quan i a i e e ec s on he ma ke pe o mance. The quan i a i e esul s o he heu is ic-based scena ios con i m ha , o he same amoun o enewable and load sa ing bids, he e iciency scena io exhibi s he bes economic ( educ ion o aded