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Invasive hornets on the road: motorway-driven dispersal must be considered in management plans of Vespa velutina

Verdasca, Maria João,Rebelo, Hugo,Carvalheiro, Luisa,Sampaio e rebelo, Rui

Abstract

Understanding the mechanisms that potentiate the dispersion of an invasive species is essential to anticipate its arrival into new regions and to develop adequate management actions to minimize damage to biodiversity and society. One of the most successful invaders in Europe, the yellow-legged hornet (Vespa velutina), is dispersing through self-diffusion and jump dispersal. Using information on species occurrence in Portugal from 2013 to 2018, this study aimed to understand the range expansion trajectory of V. velutina and to identify the role of climate, landscape and anthropogenic variables on the two mechanisms of spread. We found that in Portugal the invasion is proceeding faster southwards (45 km/year) along the Atlantic coast than eastwards (20 km/ year) where the climatic suitability gradient is more compressed, with jump dispersal playing an important role in this difference and in the acceleration of the invasion process. Dispersal by diffusion was best explained by the annual range of temperature and precipitation of the wettest month, with distance to shrub land also having an important role. Additionally, jump dispersal appeared to be facilitated by motorways, hinting at the role of human-mediated dispersal. Indeed, the number of nests that resulted from this dispersive mechanism were significantly closer to motorways than expected by chance. To prevent the dispersal of V. velutina into Mediterranean regions, and in addition to a special attention to the advancing front, early monitoring programs should also target a buffer zone on both sides of motorways, and at freight shipping hubs.

Full text

In asi e ho ne s on he oad: mo o way-d i en dispe sal mus be conside ed in managemen plans o Vespa elu ina Ma ia João Ve dasca1, Hugo Rebelo2,3, Luísa G. Ca alhei o1,4, Rui Rebelo1 1Cen e o Ecology, E olu ion and En i onmen al Changes (cE3c), Faculdade de Ciências da Uni e sidade de Lisboa, C2, Campo G ande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Po ugal 2CIBIO/InBIO, Uni e sidade do Po o, Campus Ag á io Vai ão, Pad e A mando Quin as, 4485-661 Vai ão, Po ugal 3 CEABN/InBIO, Uni e sidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, Po ugal 4Depa amen o de Ecologia, Uni e sidade Fede al de Goiás, Goiânia, B asil Co esponding au ho : Ma ia João Ve dasca (mjoao[email p o ec ed]) Academic edi o : Rami o Bus aman e|Recei ed 9 July 2021|Accep ed 28 Sep embe 2021|Published 15 No embe 2021 Ci a ion: Ve dasca MJ, Rebelo H, Ca alhei o LG, Rebelo R (2021) In asi e ho ne s on he oad: mo o way-d i en dispe sal mus be conside ed in managemen plans o Vespa elu ina. NeoBio a 69: 177–198. h ps://doi.o g/10.3897/ neobio a.69.71352 Abs ac Unde s anding he mechanisms ha po en ia e he dispe sion o an in asi e species is essen ial o an icipa e i s a i al in o new egions and o de elop adequa e managemen ac ions o minimize damage o biodi e si y and socie y. One o he mos success ul in ade s in Eu ope, he yellow-legged ho ne (Vespa elu ina), is dispe sing h ough sel -di usion and jump dispe sal. Using in o ma ion on species occu ence in Po ugal om 2013 o 2018, his s udy aimed o unde s and he ange expansion ajec o y o V. elu ina and o iden i y he ole o clima e, landscape and an h opogenic a iables on he wo mechanisms o sp ead. We ound ha in Po ugal he in asion is p oceeding as e sou hwa ds (45 km/yea ) along he A lan ic coas han eas wa ds (20 km/ yea ) whe e he clima ic sui abili y g adien is mo e comp essed, wi h jump dispe sal playing an impo an ole in his di e ence and in he accele a ion o he in asion p ocess. Dispe sal by di usion was bes explained by he annual ange o empe a u e and p ecipi a ion o he we es mon h, wi h dis ance o sh ub land also ha ing an impo an ole. Addi ionally, jump dispe sal appea ed o be acili a ed by mo o ways, hin ing a he ole o human-media ed dispe sal. Indeed, he numbe o nes s ha esul ed om his dispe si e mechanism we e signi ican ly close o mo o ways han expec ed by chance. To p e en he dispe sal o V. elu ina in o Medi e anean egions, and in addi ion o a special a en ion o he ad ancing on , ea ly moni o ing p o- g ams should also a ge a bu e zone on bo h sides o mo o ways, and a eigh shipping hubs. Keywo ds Clima ic g adien , di usion dispe sal, human-media ed dispe sal, jump dispe sal, mo o ways, Vespa elu ina NeoBio a 69: 177–198 (2021) doi: 10.3897/neobio a.69.71352 h ps://neobio a.penso .ne Copy igh Ma ia João Ve dasca e al. This is an open access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License (CC BY 4.0), which pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal au ho and sou ce a e c edi ed. RESEARCH ARTICLE Ad ancing esea ch on alien species and biological in asions A pee - e iewed open-access jou nal NeoBio a Ma ia João Ve dasca e al. / NeoBio a 69: 177–198 (2021) 178 In oduc ion In asi e species can ha e impo an en i onmen al and socioeconomic impac s. Know- ing he dispe sal ou es o such species is c ucial o an icipa e hei a i al and de ine adequa e managemen p ac ices in a imely ashion. In asi eness (a dynamic p ope y o he species) and in asibili y (a p ope y o a loca ion ha can change wi h an h o- pogenic dis u bance, seasons, clima e change), wo key componen s o biological in a- sions, a e hough o be p ima ily de e mined by species’ dispe sal abili y and habi a sui abili y, espec i ely (B ooks 2007). In asi eness is hus media ed by li e s a egies (Pysek and Richa dson 2007), whe eas in asibili y is ela ed o local condi ions a he si e, habi a o landscape le els (Vicen e e al. 2010). Fo a isk assessmen o he ul- ne abili y o a si e o an in asi e species i is he e o e impo an o ha e de ailed in o - ma ion on bo h he species’ ecological niche (i.e., s a ic in o ma ion, such as clima ic ole ance) and mo emen abili y, which will egula e i and when sui able a eas away om he si e whe e he in asion s a ed will be eached (i.e., dynamic in o ma ion). Including such in o ma ion on dis ibu ion models o in asi e species can help o dis- inguish sui able habi a ha is, o can be po en ially occupied, om sui able habi a ha is inaccessible (Mille and Holloway 2015). As di e en en i onmen al condi ions and landscape he e ogenei y may accele a e o hampe he in asi e p ocess (Has ings e al. 2005), i is also impo an o iden i y he pa e ns o ange expansion. Th ee di e en ajec o ies o ange expansion e sus ime can be conside ed: linea (Andow e al. 1990), biphasic (wi h an ini ial shallow slope ollowed by a s eep linea slope), and accele a ing wi h ime, quickly eaching he sa u a ion phase (Shigesada e al. 1995). The h ee expansion pa e ns occu h ough ei he sel -media ed dispe sal om an ini ial loca ion (di usion; Lockwood e al. 2007) o jump dispe sal in o egions ela i ely a om he co e dis ibu ion a ea wi hou col- onizing he egions in be ween, leading o he es ablishmen o nascen colonies (Su- a ez e al. 2001), “ou pos s” he ea e . I ou pos s es ablish in en i onmen ally sui able a eas he species can con inue he expansion p ocess om he e, accele a ing i . When a species sp eads h ough bo h p ocesses (na u al di usion and jump dispe sal), s a i- ied di usion occu s (Henge eld 1989; Sua ez e al. 2001). In such a p ocess, he ini ial ange expansion occu s mainly by di usion, bu as he a ea o he ounde popula ion expands, new nes s c ea ed by long-dis ance e en s accele a e ange expansion in la e phases (Shigesada e al. 1995; see also some insec examples in Andow e al. (1990)). Insec s a e he dominan g oup among non-na i e e es ial in e eb a es in Eu- ope (Roques e al. 2009). Social insec s, in pa icula social Hymenop e a, a e likely o become success ul in ade s due o hei excellen dispe sal abili ies, high ep oduc i e a es in an annual li e cycle, b oad die s and habi a anges, colony ini ia ion by a sin- gle insemina ed queen, and o hei close associa ion wi h human anspo a ion wi h ela i ely low p obabili y o de ec ion (Molle 1996; Beggs e al. 2011). These cha ac- e is ics a o he in asi eness o eusocial insec s, gi ing hem a plas ici y o esponses ha allow hei su i al and es ablishmen in new en i onmen s. Impac s o in asi e social insec s include changes o ecosys em unc ions, compe i i e displacemen o Mo o ways speed na u al in asion dynamics o Vespa elu ina 179 na i e species, hyb idiza ion wi h na i e species, h ea s o human o animal heal h h ough s ings o he ansmission o pa hogens (Schneide e al. 2004; Les e and Beggs 2019). One example o an in asi e eusocial insec ha is cu en ly sp eading in Eu ope is he yellow-legged ho ne , (Vespa elu ina Lepele ie , 1836), an agg essi e p eda o o honeybees and wild pollina o s, ha is pu ing honey and ag icul u al p o- duc ion a isk (Monceau e al. 2014; Ve dasca e al. 2021). The high dispe sal abili y o his in asi e combined wi h he lack o ue compe i o s and wi h he a ailabili y o ood esou ces in Eu ope, has been a o ing i s expansion in his con inen . A e he acciden al in oduc ion o V. elu ina in F ance in 2004, p obably by a single emale o igina ing om empe a e sou h-eas e n China (A ca e al. 2015), he in asion sp ead o o he Eu opean coun ies – Spain, Po ugal, Belgium, I aly, Ge many, Uni ed King- dom, Ne he lands and Luxembou g, being he ho ne now conside ed an in asi e al- ien species o conce n in he Eu opean Union (Eu opean Commission 2016). In 2011, a new in asion was de ec ed in he no h o Po ugal (G osso-Sil a and Maia 2012) ha hen expanded sou hwa d in o he cen e o Po ugal (Ca alho e al. 2020) ac oss a clima e g adien be ween Tempe a e and Medi e anean bioclima es (Ri as-Ma ínez e al. 2017; Say e e al. 2020) and no hwa d in o Galicia (Spain) (Rod íguez-Flo es e al. 2019). The cu en Eu opean dis ibu ion o his species, mos ly concen a ed along he A lan ic coas , aligns wi h he clima ic p e e ences p edic ed by Villeman e al. (2011). As a cen al place o age , wo ke s o V. elu ina op imally explo e o aging a eas 500 m o 800 m om hei nes s, al hough he maximum homing abili y ( he maximal dis ance an indi idual is able o a el on i s way home) o he ho ne is much g ea e (5000 m; Poida z e al. 2018). The sp ead o V. elu ina in Eu ope has been conside ed a s a i ied di usion p o- cess, including a mix u e o na u al di usion and jump dispe sal e en s (Be olino e al. 2016; Robine e al. 2017; Lioy e al. 2019). Jump dispe sal may occu by wo di e en p ocesses: sel -dispe sal o gynes (queens o he nex gene a ion), which a e able o ly long dis ances on hei own (18 km/day in ligh mill expe imen s – pe s. comm., D . D. Sau a d, INRA, F ance o he au ho s o Robine e al. 2017), o h ough human-media ed dispe sal (Robine e al. 2019). Due o he di icul y in dis- en angling hese p ocesses, only occu ence poin s ound mo e han 78 km (yea ly sp ead a e in F ance) om hei nea es neighbo s we e conside ed o esul om long dis ance dispe sal e en s by Robine e al. (2017). Howe e , Be olino e al. (2016), wo king in No hwes I aly, conside ed a much sho e dis ance as he limi o e which human-media ed dispe sal was conside ed he mos likely explana ion o jump dis- pe sal e en s (yea ly sp ead a e in I aly = 18.3 ± 3.3 km). Besides he di e en me h- odological app oaches (including he scale o analysis), he di e ences be ween he wo s udies a e a ibu ed by Be olino e al. (2016) o he I alian moun ainous e i o y, when compa ed wi h he la gely la no h wes e n and cen al F ance, while Robine e . al. (2017) jus i y he high sp ead a e in F ance by he abili y o ounde emales o lying long dis ances in ligh mill expe imen s. P ecipi a ion and empe a u e a e hough o be he s onges p edic o s o he in asi e ange o V. elu ina (Villeman e al. 2011), wi h land-use also playing an Ma ia João Ve dasca e al. / NeoBio a 69: 177–198 (2021) 180 impo an ole a a egional scale (Bessa e al. 2016). This ho ne is now colonizing he Medi e anean peninsulas, and he e o e being exposed o he i s ime o a Medi e - anean clima e. As he species sp eads along he ansi ional empe a e-Medi e anean clima e egions, i is impo an o assess he ex en o sui able a ea a a ine esolu ion, as well as o unde s and how he in asion p ocess is un olding and he ole o human- media ed dispe sal. A ecen s udy highligh ed he need o iden i y he coloniza ion pa hways and plan managemen app oaches o hal he sp ead o V. elu ina in Po ugal (Ca alho e al. 2020). A a egional scale, he iden i ica ion o a limi ed numbe o key a iables explaining he dispe sal and es ablishmen success o V. elu ina can acili a e he c ea ion o e ec i e p e en i e and con ol measu es. In his s udy, we inco po a ed land co e and an h opogenic d i e s o p edic he isk o in asion by V. elu ina wi h- in he ansi ional empe a e-Medi e anean zones and in e coloniza ion pa hways. Mo e speci ically, we (i) assessed he oles o di usion and jump dispe sal on V. elu ina expansion in o Medi e anean- ype clima es and (ii) iden i ied which en i onmen al a ibu es a e mos in luen ial on he di ec ion and speed o i s dispe sal. Ma e ial and me hods Nes occu ence da a in Po ugal Fo his s udy, we ocused on he seconda y in oduc ion e en o he ho ne in Po u- gal and used all o he a ailable Po uguese p esence da a o V. elu ina (8610 eco ds o nes s, om 2013 o 2018). Da a was ob ained om Bombei os Volun á ios de Vi- ana do Cas elo and om he online pla o m ‘STOP espa’ (h p://s op espa.icn .p /), which is managed by he Ins i u o da Conse ação da Na u eza e das Flo es as (ICNF) and agg ega es all alida ed Po uguese eco ds o V. elu ina nes s ha we e p e iously egis e ed in he pla o m by ci izens. To a oid spa ial au oco ela ion, we educed he numbe o occu ence da a poin s h ough he spa ially a e y occu ence da a ool (pixel size esolu ion: 300 m) in SDM oolbox (B own 2014) in A cGIS 10.4.1 (ESRI 2016); his esul ed in a o al o 7847 poin s (Suppl. ma e ial 2: Appendix A). To calcula e he con inuous dis ibu ion a ea o V. elu ina (2013 o 2018) we d ew a 5km bu e a ound each nes . The wo ke s o V. elu ina p obably o age less han 1000m om hei nes , and his bu e o 5 km co esponds o he es ima ed maxi- mum homing abili y o he species, since ew wo ke s ha e he abili y o pe o m long ips (Poida z e al. 2018). Mo eo e , and acco ding o (Lioy e al. 2019), mos new nes s (>90%) in NW I aly we e loca ed wi hin his adius o hei nea es sou ce o he p e ious yea . All he con iguous bu e s we e agg ega ed o es ablish each yea ’s con- inuous dis ibu ion; all eco ds ou side he con inuous a ea o he p e ious yea we e conside ed expansion nes s. F om hese expansion nes s, hose loca ed wi hin he new con inuous a ea we e conside ed o esul om di usion dispe sal and hose ound ou side his new limi we e conside ed ou pos s (i.e., an e idence o jump dispe sal, h ough ei he sel -media ed o human-media ed). Mo o ways speed na u al in asion dynamics o Vespa elu ina 181 Range expansion To iden i y he ange expansion ajec o y, we calcula ed he annual inc emen in he con inuous a ea. The numbe o new ou pos s pe yea was coun ed and hei con- ibu ion o he o e all expansion was es ima ed by iden i ying hose ou pos s ha could ha e unc ioned as a sou ce o o he nes s. To asce ain a possible o igin o each expansion colony and ou pos , we compa ed i s dis ance o he nea es edge o he con inuous a ea and o he nea es ou pos o he p e ious yea ; all he eco ds o which he di e ence be ween bo h dis ances was lowe han 5 km (co esponding o 1419 eco ds) we e disca ded, being conside ed o non-a ibu able o igin. The yea ly expansion esul ing om di usion dispe sal along he N-S and W-E axes was es ima ed by measu ing he dis ance o he sou h and eas be ween consecu i e limi s o he con inuous dis ibu ion a ea. The numbe o new nes s es ablished exclusi ely o he sou h and eas om he p e ious con inuous limi was coun ed and we iden i ied how many o hese we e ou pos s. Yea ly, o each ou pos , i s dis ance o he nea es sou ce o he p e ious yea was measu ed. To es o an accele a ion o bo h ypes o expansion, he slopes o he ela ionships be ween hese dis ances and yea was compa ed wi h ze o. En i onmen al d i e s Assuming ha he same a iables in luencing dis ibu ion ha e he po en ial o p o- mo e i s dispe sal, we conside ed h ee clima ic and eigh land co e and an h opogen- ic a iables (see Suppl. ma e ial 1: Table S1). Va iables in his s udy we e adap ed om Bessa e al. (2016), wi h he ollowing changes: i) we excluded NDVI and iso he mal- i y, ii) we used he dis ance o each speci ic land co e class ins ead o i s pe cen age because using dis ances assu es be e pe o mance o landscape ea u es (Rainho and Palmei im 2011), iii) we inco po a ed he classes “dis ance o o es ” and “index o human in luence” and i ) we included p edic o s ela ed o he dis ance o linea s uc- u es (mo o ways and ailways). To a oid collinea i y, we inspec ed i he e we e highly co ela ed a iables ( ≥0.70; Do mann e al. 2013) (see Suppl. ma e ial 1: Table S2). Fo his analysis we used h ee da ase s: i) bound eco ds ( he se ies o poin s de ining a minimum con ex polygon ha ep esen s he leading edge o he con inuous in aded a ea o each pa icula yea , p esumably esul ing om dispe sal by di usion), ii) all ou pos s ( esul ing om jump dispe sal) and iii) > 18 km ou pos s, ep esen ing he subse o ou pos s loca ed mo e han 18 km (dis ance a elled in ligh mill expe i- men s – pe s. comm., D . D. Sau a d, INRA, F ance o he au ho s o Robine e al. 2017) om he con inuous a ea o he espec i e yea , o which he e is p obably a highe con ibu ion o human-media ed dispe sal. Da a analyses To assess which a iables in luence he dispe sal o V. elu ina o each o he h ee da a- se s we used gene alized linea mixed models (GLMM) wi h he package ‘lme4’ (Ba es e Ma ia João Ve dasca e al. / NeoBio a 69: 177–198 (2021) 182 al. 2015) in R (Co e Team 2019). We began by unning ull models wi h clima ic, land co e and an h opogenic d i e s simul aneously. As clima ic a iables a e acknowledged o be he main ac o s in luencing he species dis ibu ion ac oss a ying spa ial scales (Pea son and Dawson 2003), we decided o un addi ional models wi h land co e and an h opogenic a iables only, in an a emp o ind o he possible p edic o s a a egional scale. Fo each da ase , we se he dependen a iable as he minimum dis ance o he eco ds o he con inuous a ea o he p e ious yea (we disca ded h ee eco ds ha we e loca ed less han 5 km om an ou pos es ablished in he p e ious yea , as ha could be an o shoo o ha ou pos ). To de ec collinea i y be ween explana o y a iables we used he Vi s ep unc ion in he usdm R package (Naimi e al. 2014) o calcula e he a iance in la ion ac o (VIF) and excluded he a iables in models wi h a VIF alue g ea e han he h eshold ( h=3). A a iable “yea ” was included as a andom e ec o accoun o yea ly clima ic a ia ions ha may a ec he dispe sal o he ho ne . We hen selec ed he bes model (using he Akaike In o ma ion C i e ion – AIC) wi h he d edge R unc ion, and gene a ed a e age es ima es o he e ec o each a iable using he mod- el.a g R unc ion (models wi h del a AIC alues < 2) om he MuMIn package (Ba ón 2009). The esul s we e plo ed using he package is eg (B eheny and Bu che 2017). As we e i ied ha one an h opogenic p edic o (dis ance o mo o ways; see Re- sul s) was in luen ial on ho ne jump dispe sal we decided o u he explo e he da a. Fi s , we inspec ed i he ou pos s’ dis ance o mo o ways was andom, i.e., we es ed whe he mo o ways may be ac ing as d i e s o jump dispe sal. To accomplish his, we gene a ed a win andom poin o each ou pos , loca ed a he same Euclidean dis ance o he con inuous dis ibu ion a ea as he ou pos , and compa ed hei dis ance o mo- o ways wi h a pai ed samples Wilcoxon es . Second, o bo h da a se s o ou pos s we an ano he GLMM model, bu his ime wi h he dis ance o he en i e oad ne wo k o inspec he ela i e impo ance o each oad ca ego y in ho ne jump dispe sal. To gene a e a isk map o V. elu ina dispe sal and iden i y egions mos a isk o im- minen in asion, we combined in o ma ion om sui able a eas ( egions wi h ainy win e s and pleasan summe s, mainly loca ed along he A lan ic coas : Ve dasca e al., unpublished da a) wi h he geog aphical in o ma ion o he signi ican dispe sal p edic o s o a model wi h clima e, land co e and an h opogenic a iables (see Suppl. ma e ial 1: TableS4). These p edic o s we e combined acco ding o hei es ima es o p oduce a dispe sal map. To de ine he isk a eas a ound mo o ways, we analyzed he pa e n o he numbe o ou pos s as a unc ion o dis ance o mo o ways. As he numbe o new nes s es ablished alongside he mo o ways dec eased linea ly wi h dis ance up o 17 km om he highway (a e ha he e was no appa en ela ion wi h dis ance – see Resul s), we calcula ed his ela ion o es ima e he wid h o he a eas ha con ained 50% and 75% o he ou pos s. A ailabili y o da a and ma e ial Due o p i acy easons, public da a is a ailable in Suppl. ma e ial 2: Appendix A o Suppo ing In o ma ion in a esolu ion o 5 × 5 km. The p ecise geo-localiza ions ha suppo he indings o his wo k (which we e used unde license o he cu en s udy) Mo o ways speed na u al in asion dynamics o Vespa elu ina 183 a e a ailable om he au ho s upon easonable eques and a e pe mission o he en i ies holding he da a. Da a eques s can be add essed o he co esponding au ho , who will make hem a ailable join ly wi h he di e en en i ies ha hold he da a. Any u he in o ma ion can be ob ained by eques o he au ho s. Resul s F om 2013 o 2018, he a ea occupied by V. elu ina in Po ugal expe ienced a 25- old inc ease ( om 845 km2 o 20,561.26 km2) in a linea manne wi hou accele a ion o decele a ion (Fig. 1). Expansion was much as e along he no h-sou h axis (45 km/yea ) han along he wes -eas axis ( oughly 20 km/yea ), ega dless o aking place in empe - a e (in 2014 and 2015) o Medi e anean clima e egions (since 2016) (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 50 100 150 200 250 mk( ae a deipucco e i alumuC 2) yea Cumula e dis ance (km) Cumula e occupied a ea (km2) Cumula e dis ance o he sou he n limi (km) Cumula e dis ance o he eas e n limi (km) Figu e 1. Annual expansion o V. elu ina. The pic u e depic s he wo cumula i e linea dis ances ( igh axis) be ween he in asion o igin and he successi e limi s o he in asion on o he sou h (black line) and eas (da k g ey line). The sou he n and eas e n limi s o each yea we e measu ed by simply d awing a angen o he sou he nmos poin and he eas e nmos poin , espec i ely. The le axis e e s o he yea ly cumula i e in aded a ea (in km2) esul ing om di usion dispe sal and depic ed as a g ay a ea. Ma ia João Ve dasca e al. / NeoBio a 69: 177–198 (2021) 184 Figu e 2. In asion pa e n o V. elu ina in Po ugal be ween 2013 and 2018 along he clima ic g adien (TMP – Tempe a e clima e, SP – Sup amedi e anean clima e, MM – Mesomedi e anean clima e and TM – The momedi e anean. The igu e depic s he con inuous dis ibu ion a ea o V. elu ina in each yea and he loca ion o he ou pos s (poin s wi h he highes dispe sal dis ances; see me hods) by yea . The sui able a ea o he species was e ie ed om an unpublished wo k o he au ho s. The cu en in aded a ea (by May 2021) is also shown. Mo o ways speed na u al in asion dynamics o Vespa elu ina 185 Range expansion The numbe o ou pos s a ied ac oss he di e en yea s om a minimum o 4 in 2016 o a maximum o 46 in 2015. Such ou pos s had a e y high impo ance o he expan- sion o he ho ne . Indeed, he numbe o new expansion nes s ha we e loca ed nea he ou pos s es ablished in he p e ious yea was highe han he numbe o new nes s ound nea he p e ious con inuous limi in all yea s excep 2017 (Table 1). In he i s h ee yea s (2014–2016), he mean dis ance o new nes s o he nea - es ou pos was lowe han he dis ance o he con inuous a ea (Suppl. ma e ial 1: Fig. S1). The e e se scena io occu ed in 2017 and 2018, when almos all ou pos s we e es ablished in Medi e anean-clima e egions. As he co e dis ibu ion a ea expanded o he sou h and eas , some ou pos s ha ga e ise o new nes s nea by we e engul ed in o he con inuous dis ibu ion a ea (i.e., coalescen colony model; Fig. 2). Ou pos s es ablished sou hwa ds we e o e 3 imes mo e equen han hose es- ablished eas wa ds (Table 2). The e was a dec ease in he numbe o success ully es ab- lished nes s since 2016, especially sou hwa ds (Table 2). The slope o he ela ionship be ween ime and dispe sal dis ance o he sou h and eas was no signi ican ly di e - en om ze o, o bo h ypes o dispe sal (di usion o jump dispe sal) (Suppl. ma e ial 1: Table S3). Mos ou pos s (90%) we e loca ed mo e han 18 km om he con inuous a ea o he p e ious yea . En i onmen al d i e s Models wi h bo h clima ic and land co e a iables explained mo e a iabili y o he dispe sal pa e ns o V elu ina han models solely wi h clima ic o land co e a iables (Suppl. ma e ial 1: Tables S6–S8). A clima ic a iable – p ecipi a ion o he we es Table 1. The numbe o new nes s and ou pos s o V. elu ina (ou side he con inuous dis ibu ion a ea o he p e ious yea ), be ween 2014 and 2018. Yea Numbe o new nes s loca ed nea e he con inuous a ea o he p e ious yea Numbe o new nes s loca ed nea e an ou pos o he p e ious yea To al numbe o ou pos s Numbe o “> 18km ou pos s” 2014 55 83 10 7 2015 418 491 46 46 2016 69 103 4 3 2017 230 163 10 8 2018 165 174 33 29 To al 937 1014 103 93 Table 2. Annual numbe o new occu ences egis e ed exclusi ely sou hwa ds and eas wa ds. Yea Numbe o new eco ds exclusi ely sou hwa ds Numbe o new eco ds exclusi ely eas wa ds 2014 128 (+ 1 ou pos ) 1 (+ 1 ou pos ) 2015 120 (+ 23 ou pos s) 330 (+ 6 ou pos s) 2016 225 (+ 1 ou pos ) 1 ou pos 2017 123 (+ 8 ou pos s) 19 (+ 2 ou pos s) 2018 24 (+ 20 ou pos s) 8 (+ 3 ou pos s) To al 620 (+ 53 ou pos s) 359 (+ 13 ou pos s) Ma ia João Ve dasca e al. / NeoBio a 69: 177–198 (2021) 192 whe e a high numbe o he obse a ions and cap u es o V. elu ina in bai - aps we e eco ded nea highways, emphasizing ha eigh a ic can con ibu e o he anspo o his species a om he in asion on . The ac ha Bessa and collabo a- o s (2016) did no ind any ela ion wi h he oad ne wo k could be due o he e y es ic ed egion ha was used in hei s udy ( oughly 10% o he a ea ha we used he e). In F ance, Robine e al. (2017) used human popula ion densi y as a p oxy o ade o es jump dispe sal, no aking in o accoun he oad ne wo k, and concluded ha he apid sp ead o he ho ne may no be necessa ily media ed by humans. So, i is possible ha long-dis ance dispe sal e en s ha occu ed in F ance may also ha e con ibu ed o unin en ional in oduc ions ia mo o ways. Despi e i being ex emely di icul o p o ide e idence o ea ly in oduc ions, o he social insec s ha e also p obably been anspo ed acciden ally by humans o e long dis ances since he es ablishmen o long-dis ance ade ou es (Be elsmeie 2021). Fo example, New Zealand had no social wasp species p io o human colo- niza ion, bu o e he las cen u y has been in aded by se e al species o social wasps (Les e and Beggs 2019). Indeed, Vespula ge manica and Vespula ulga is, bo h na i e om Eu asia, ha e become widesp ead h oughou he New Zealand causing majo impac s o na i e biodi e si y (Les e e al. 2014). In A gen ina, whe e V. ge manica is also in asi e, he obse ed s a i ied geog aphical expansion pa e n (which equen ly exceeds 30 km pe yea , al hough as e o sou h) does no ma ch he obse ed queen dispe sal abili ies (only a ew hund ed me e s na u ally o ind nes si es), sugges ing ha human-aided anspo o hibe na ing queens is he cen al d i e o he cu en dis ibu ion o hese wasps in he coun y (Masciocchi and Co ley 2012). A mo e local scales, he an h opogenic in luence on he sp ead o in asi e insec s was also demons a ed. Fo example, he dis ance o ail oad acks in luenced he sp ead o he in asi e e mi e species Re iculi e mes la ipes (Pe de eau e al. 2019). Implica ions o he managemen o Vespa elu ina in asion p ocess Iden i ying pa hways ha acili a e he dispe sal o in asi e species is essen ial o in- o ming e o s o con ain in asions (Sua ez e . al. 2001). To be success ul, e e y in asi e species con ol p og am mus conside he p obabili y o de ec ing he species and he cos o he p ocess. In his wo k, we showed ha 50% o he p esumed new nes s esul - ing om human-media ed long-dis ance dispe sal es ablished wi hin a 6km wide bu e along mo o ways. To aise his p opo ion o 75%, he bu e mus be inc eased o 12 km, which ep esen s an almos 70% inc ease in he a ea o be su eyed. Based on esul s he e, e ec i e measu es o con ain V. elu ina in asions should include ea ly moni o ing p og ams in a bu e o 5 km ( he maximum homing abili y ha ew ho ne wo ke s can each: Poida z e al. 2018) a ound he con inuous dis ibu ion a ea o he p e ious yea , and 6 km (ideally 12 km) a ound mo o ways. I he clima ic condi ions a e me , he icini y o he main oads is suscep ible o be colonized as e h ough human-media ed anspo . E en in highly agmen ed habi a s, he main oads can connec isola ed sui - able a eas. Fo ins ance, in he egions a isk in sou he n Po ugal, he a ea o be su eyed can be limi ed only o clima ically a o able egions ha a e eachable by highway. This is Mo o ways speed na u al in asion dynamics o Vespa elu ina 193 pa icula ly ele an in sou he n Po ugal whe e he isola ed agmen s o sui able land- scape a e economically e y impo an o beekeeping ac i i ies. The ea ly de ec ion and con ol o nascen popula ions in hese a eas may be a good way o manage i s sp ead, a he han ocusing e o s on es ablished in asion on s. Local ou each ac i i ies, es- pecially hose a ge ed o anspo a ion companies, should also be p io i ized o p e en he Eu opean mo o way ne wo k om becoming an in asion ou e o he ho ne o new coun ies. Howe e , di e en ypes o ca go do no ca y he same isk o being in es ed (as di e en species may di e in hei commodi y associa ions). The e o e, ocused bi- osecu i y policies o V. elu ina, a e needed, pa icula ly a ge ed o he in e cep ion o wooden p oduc s’ anspo a ion and man-made goods associa ed wi h ga den ade, due o he po en ial o hese commodi ies o shel e hibe na ing queens. I is also impo an o p omo e con ol ac ions on po s o species en y, namely ha bo s along he coas . Acknowledgemen s We hank Ins i u o da Conse ação da Na u eza e das Flo es as (ICNF) and Bombei- os Volun á ios de Viana do Cas elo, o ha ing p o ided he eco ds o V. elu ina occu ences in Po ugal. We hank José Ped o G anadei o and Ped o Segu ado o hei insigh s on da a analysis. Fundação pa a a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT Po ugal) p o ided inancial suppo h ough he p ojec UIDB/00329/2020 g an ed o cE3c. 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Ecog aphy 33: 1081–1092. h ps://doi.o g/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.6380.x Mo o ways speed na u al in asion dynamics o Vespa elu ina 197 Villeman C, Ba be -Massin M, Pe a d A, Mulle F, Ga gominy O, Jigue F, Rome Q (2011) P edic ing he in asion isk by he alien bee-hawking Yellow-legged ho ne Vespa elu ina nig i ho ax ac oss Eu ope and o he con inen s wi h niche models. Biological Conse a ion 144: 2142–2150. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.biocon.2011.04.009 Supplemen a y ma e ial 1 Suppo ing in o ma ion Au ho s: Ma ia João Ve dasca, Hugo Rebelo, Luísa G. Ca alhei o, Rui Rebelo Da a ype: ables and igu es (pd . ile) Explana ion no e: Table S1. Clima e, land co e and an h opogenic a iables wi h po en ial o a ec he beha iou and es ablishmen o Vespa elu ina. Tables S2. Co ela ion ma ix o he clima ic, land co e and an h opogenic d i e s ha ha e he po en ial o a ec he beha iou and es ablishmen o Vespa elu ina in Eu ope: a) bound eco ds; b) ou pos s; c) ou pos s >18 km. Table S3. Rela ion be ween dispe sion dis ance ( o sou h and eas ) s ime ei he o sel media ed o jump dispe sal by es ing h ough - es he signi icance o he slope o he eg ession when compa ed o ze o (H0: he slope o he eg ession line is 0). Table S4. E ec s o clima ic, land co e and an h opogenic a iables on he dispe sal o V. elu ina. Table S5. E ec s o he di e en land co e and an h opogenic p edic o s on he dispe sion o V. elu ina, conside ing he p edic o dis ance o he en i e oad ne - wo k, ins ead o dis ance o mo o ways in bound eco ds and bo h se s o ou pos s. Table S6. Se o bes models wi h clima ic and land a iables acco ding o he di - e en da ase s (1. bound eco ds; 2. all ou pos and 3. ou pos 18 km). Table7. Se o bes models wi h clima ic a iables acco ding o he di e en da ase s (1. bound eco ds; 2. all ou pos and 3. ou pos 18 km). Table S8. Se o bes models wi h land a iables acco ding o he di e en da ase s (1. bound eco ds; 2. all ou pos and 3. ou pos 18 km). Figu e S1. Va ia ion o he mean dis ance o he new eco ds wi hin a gi en yea o he nea es po en ial sou ce: con inuous a ea o ou pos . E o ba s depic s anda d e o s. Figu e S2. Rela ion be ween he dispe - sion o Vespa elu ina and signi ican clima ic and land co e a iables acco ding o he di e en da ase s: bound eco ds, all ou pos s and ou pos 18 km (see Table 3 o he main manusc ip ). Copy igh no ice: This da ase is made a ailable unde he Open Da abase License (h p://openda acommons.o g/licenses/odbl/1.0/). The Open Da abase License (ODbL) is a license ag eemen in ended o allow use s o eely sha e, modi y, and use his Da ase while main aining his same eedom o o he s, p o ided ha he o iginal sou ce and au ho (s) a e c edi ed. Link: h ps://doi.o g/10.3897/neobio a.69.71352.suppl1 Ma ia João Ve dasca e al. / NeoBio a 69: 177–198 (2021) 198 Supplemen a y ma e ial 2 Appendix A Au ho s: Ma ia João Ve dasca, Hugo Rebelo, Luísa G. Ca alhei o, Rui Rebelo Da a ype: occu ences (pd . ile) Explana ion no e: Vespa elu ina occu ences – 5 km esolu ion. Copy igh no ice: This da ase is made a ailable unde he Open Da abase License (h p://openda acommons.o g/licenses/odbl/1.0/). The Open Da abase License (ODbL) is a license ag eemen in ended o allow use s o eely sha e, modi y, and use his Da ase while main aining his same eedom o o he s, p o ided ha he o iginal sou ce and au ho (s) a e c edi ed. Link: h ps://doi.o g/10.3897/neobio a.69.71352.suppl2