Using analytical network process (ANP) to align Sustainable Development Goals with slum upgrading projects: the case of Medellin

165 ARQUITECTONICS DOSSIER Using analytical network process (ANP) to align Sustainable Development Goals with slum upgrading projects: the case of Medellin newsha salari, leanDro MaDrazo Abstract Modern cities currently face significant slum sprawl, resulting from the natural growth of the urban population combined with rural migration worldwide. The United Nations Member States are committed to establishing sustainable, innovative, and responsive cities worldwide. With this purpose, the UN established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, a set of 17 goals, 169 targets, and 231 indicators that aim to promote action to eradicate poverty, protect the planet, and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. As stated in SDG number 11, “As the world becomes increasingly urbanized, many countries face growing numbers of slum dwellers, worsening air quality and insufficient basic urban services and infrastructure”. In fact, slums are a significant obstacle to achieving sustainable goals due to a lack of access to safe water, inadequate sanitation and other infrastructure, poor structural quality of housing, overcrowding, and insecure residential status. Nowadays, as a result of the high number of slum dwellers and the resulting social, 166 ARQUITECTONICS ARQUITECTONICS economic, and environmental problems, slums remain an unresolved problem all over the world. In our research, we used desktop research to determine the causes and characteristics of slums and an analytic network process (ANP) to identify and analyse the various links between SDGs and slum characteristics using the slum upgrading programme in Medellin, in Colombia, as a case study. The ANP methodology findings show which SDGs are more connected with slum sustainability and should be addressed in future planning. Keywords: Slums, Sustainability, ANP, SDGs. Introduction Modern cities are experiencing serious slum spread due to natural urban population growth and global rural migration. According to a world population study, the global population has grown from one billion in 1800 to 7.9 billion in 2020 [1] during the last century. The growth rate frequently overcomes national and local government’s abilities to provide enough housing and services to the urban population [2]. As a result, the urban poor is driven to seek shelter in informal settlements, most of which squat on unused public land, resulting in slum expansion[3]. The concepts of sustainability and sustainable development have emerged as a globally accepted agenda —encompassing governance, economics, and social policy— to help communities face increasingly complex problems such as housing accessibility, employment opportunities, available natural resources, etc. In the 1987 Brundtland report ‘Our Common Future’, the World Commission on Environment and Development 167 ARQUITECTONICS DOSSIER defined sustainable progress as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” [4]. Together, sustainability and sustainable development play an important role in the long-term viability of regions, nations, and the entire world [5]. Sustainable development takes on a more pragmatic tone, as it refers to the continuous process of ensuring the progressive improvement of all aspects of sustainability, the shared objective of our global societies. In many developing countries, slum development has been and continues to be the major mode of urbanization. Slums and their associated informal settlements are a spontaneous type of urbanization resulting from a variety of survival strategies employed by the urban poor, the majority of which are motivated by exclusion [6]. The term slum alludes to a wide range of communities that exhibit poor housing conditions, a lack of basic infrastructure, tenure instability, and many environmental concerns. Slums are settlements that are characterized by their informal tenures, such as shanty towns, squatter colonies, and unlawful developments. According to Habitat [7] informal communities lack access to drinkable water, basic sewage systems, power, and other infrastructure. Poor structural quality, excessive density and tenuous ownership are also characteristics of informal settlement housing [8]. For nearly four decades, several governments in the developing world have attempted solutions to slums by launching upgrading programmes. However, the initiatives have not always been successful. The failures of their upgrading efforts are partly due to centralized planning and top-down execution, making it challenging to reproduce successful pilot projects [9][10][11][12]. Typically, top-down approaches on slum upgrades have focused only on infrastructure development and rehabilitation strategies and have neglected sustainability 168 ARQUITECTONICS ARQUITECTONICS objectives, including socio-economic targets to improve life quality and to decrease the gap between community needs and government policies. In fact, most early improvement projects overlooked the relationship between slums and sustainable development goals. In this study, we examine the application of SDGs as a tool for the sustainable development of slum communities. This work aims to contribute to the ongoing debate about the role of SDGs in sustainable slum development by investigating their positive and negative impacts in terms of quality education, gender equality, and economic growth. In doing so, the strategies for sustainable development of slum communities are classified and prioritized with reference to SDGs by combining a strategic planning model and a network analysis model based on field observations and analysis data. As case study for our research we have selected a prominent and effective example of a global slum upgrading initiative: the city of Medellin, in Colombia, known as the world’s drug capital and the most dangerous city due to the high levels of criminal activity, health problems, and insecurity. Due to the high mortality rate from criminal activity, the high number of daily deaths, and Medellin’s adverse effects on the world by drug distribution, solving this city’s problems became one of Colombia’s and society’s top priorities. In 1993, the Colombian government initiated programmes to comprehensively renovate the city’s neighbourhoods with the highest concentrations of crime and social problems. PRIMED was the first and most successful programme to improve safety and security in the city of Medellin. From 1993 to 2003, and as a result of the PRIMED initiatives, the city of Medellin started to counteract the impact of criminal organizations in the city [13] [14]. The Medellin Metrocable, an integral part of the PRIMED projects, was the first step in one of the 169 ARQUITECTONICS DOSSIER most significant and innovative city improvement initiatives to date. After the success of PRIMED, the government started a second programme focusing on education and residents’ needs. PUI (Proyectos Urbanos Integrales), carried out from 2003 to 2007, was the first social urbanism worldwide. The PUI transformed Medellin into a creative and educated city. The Metrocable construction continued through the PUI programme, so that the city’s informal settlements were connected to metropolitan transit [15][16][17]. The PUI programme was further developed in three phases until 2016; overall it had a positively impacted education safety and city image. Since 2016, the programme “Medellín Cómo Vamos” has driven the city’s upgrading and improvement. Its primary objective is improving well-being and quality of life, based on the experiences of PRIMED and PUI [18]. An alignment of SDGs goals and the renovation programme in Medellin was already undertaken by Pineda and his colleagues [19] through a supported government action toward sustainable development (Governance Approach). In their study, they establish a relation between a life quality survey run by the city with the SDG framework (Technical Approach) using an analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Medellin was the case study in Pineda’s work. According to Pineda’s research, Medellin should prioritize SDG 17, SDG 3, SDG 8, SDG 5, and SDG 4 to achieve a sustainable development[20]. Therefore, this research is a continuation of the previous work done by Pineda and his colleagues on prototyping the SDGs using AHP as a structured technique for organizing and analysing complex decisions. The results can provide insights into which SDGs are most related to slum sustainability and should be prioritized in future planning bases. However, our research focuses on 170 ARQUITECTONICS ARQUITECTONICS classification and prioritization in relation to the SDGs via ANP. AHP sets up a decision problem as a hierarchy with a goal, criteria for making a decision, and options, while ANP sets it up as a network. Then, they both use a system of pairwise comparisons to determine how important each part of the structure is and to rank the options for making a choice. The Methodological Approach The method used in this study was based on the work that Pineda and his colleagues had already done. It uses two types of information sources to prioritize the SDGs. Firstly, the CONPES 3918 report published in 2018 by the Consejo Nacional de Política Económica y Social (National Council for Economic and Social Policy), a body concerned with the economic and social policies in Colombia. This document contains the sustainable development indicators (SDIs) and strategies for Colombia’s implementation of the 2030 Agenda and its SDGs. It was prepared by the National Planning Department (DPN), and the National Statistics Department (Dane). Secondly, the Quality-of-Life Survey is part of the “Medellín Cómo Vamos” programme and aims to assess Medellin residents’ perceptions of their living quality. This report was carried out through interinstitutional collaboration and aims to monitor and analyse the quality of life in Medellin with a metropolitan perspective in particular sectors (NGOs, universities, business associations, private companies, foundations, and compensation funds). In Colombia, the SDG agenda is supported by CONPES 3918, which sets the metrics that should be used to evaluate the 17 SDGs to achieve the 2030 goal. Table 1 provides the corresponding indicators included in this report. 171 ARQUITECTONICS DOSSIER Table 1 . The SDGs and their corresponding indicators according to report CONPES 3918 SDGs The indicator defined in document CONPES 3918 Code 1. No poverty Index of multidimensional poverty SDI1 2. Zero hunger Mortality rate due to malnutrition among children under 5 SDI2 3. Good health and well-being Rate of maternal mortality SDI3 4. Quality education Higher education participation rate SDI4 5. Gender equality percentage of women in state administrative jobs SDI5 6. Clean water and sanitation Access to drinking water (%) SDI6 7. Affordable and clean energy Electric safety SDI7 8. Decent work and economic growth Employment formality rate SDI8 9. Industry, innovation, and infrastructure households with access to the internet SDI9 10. Reduced inequalities Gini coefficient SDI10 11. Sustainable cities and communities Families experiencing a quantitative housing shortage SDI11 12. Responsible consumption and production Recycling rate and novel solid waste applications SDI12 13. Climate action Total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions SDI13 14. Life below water huge numbers of marine protected areas SDI14 15. Life on land Multiple thousands of hectares of protected land SDI15 16. Peace, justice and strong institutions Homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants SDI16 17. Partnerships The selected indicator should indicate partnerships between the corporate sector, government, and other stakeholders. SDI17 Every year, the Medellin quality-of-life survey is conducted to record the perceptions of the city’s residents. The most recent survey was conducted in 2021 as part of the “Medellín Cómo Vamos” programme. The survey’s main purpose is to find answers to the question: What are the most essential aspects of your life quality? Table 2 displays the results of the answers to this question. Source: Report CONPES 3918[21] 172 ARQUITECTONICS ARQUITECTONICS Table 2 . Most important aspects concerning quality of life in Medellin in 2021 Most important issues of quality of life Percentage of the population surveyed Health 49% Employment 46% Education 43% Poverty and vulnerability 38% Housing 28% Equal opportunities 25% Citizen security and coexistence 17% Public services 13% Others(Environment, transportation, recreation and sport and etc.) 40 % Analytic Network Process Analytic network process (ANP) is a mathematical theory created by Thomas L. Saaty to determine the decision-making priorities of multiple variables without establishing a one-way hierarchical relationship between decision levels. The ANP generalizes on the supermatrix approach introduced with the analytic network process and extends the AHP to circumstances of dependence and feedback [23]. Control hierarchies, clusters, elements, interrelationships between clusters, and interrelationships between elements comprise the ANP model. The ANP enables interactions and feedback within and across clusters and is a method for deriving ratio scale priorities between the elements. In general, an ANP process requires the following four steps: Step I: Developing the structure of the decision model First, we must determine the decision process’s goal or objective. This goal will be subdivided into clusters, elements, criteria, and options. Then, we must identify all Soure: “Encuesta de percepción ciudadana de Medellín,” 2021:[22] 173 ARQUITECTONICS DOSSIER of the dependencies and feedback loops between the various sections of the network. Step II: Pairwise comparison and calculation of relative weight Multicriteria techniques based on ANP are used to weigh the SDGs and indicators. Hierarchical structure and factor relationships are required in AHP. AHP does not search interdependent relationships within a cluster of factors. ANP, on the other hand, can find out interrelationships between elements, thus going beyond linear relation [24]. As a result, ANP is stronger than AHP in decision making in uncertain and dynamic environments [25]. As in AHP, the determination of relative weights in ANP is based on a pairwise comparison [26]. Pairwise comparisons provide the user with a foundation for revealing his or her preference by comparing two aspects. Furthermore, the user can express preferences between the two as equally preferred, weakly preferred, strongly preferred, or absolutely preferred, which translates into pairwise weights of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9, with 2, 4, 6 and 8 as intermediate values [23]. Pairwise comparisons of items at each level are made in terms of their relative importance to control criteria or clusters. Pairwise comparisons are performed at the element level and the cluster level. 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