Climatic variables and ecological modelling data for birds, amphibians and reptiles in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (Portugal-Spain)

Biodi e si y Da a Jou nal 9: e66509 doi: 10.3897/BDJ.9.e66509 Da a Pape Clima ic a iables and ecological modelling da a o bi ds, amphibians and ep iles in he T ansbounda y Biosphe e Rese e o Mese a Ibé ica (Po ugal-Spain) João C. Campos , Sa a Rod igues , Te esa F ei as , João A. San os , João P. Hon ado , Ad ián Regos ‡ InBIO/CIBIO - Cen o de In es igação em Biodi e sidade e Recu sos Gené icos, Campus Ag á io de Vai ão, Rua Pad e A mando Quin as, n° 7, 4485-661 Vai ão, Po o, Po ugal § CITAB - Cen o de In es igação e de Tecnologias Ag o-Ambien ais e Biológicas, Uni e sidade de T ás-os-Mon es e Al o Dou o, Apa ado 1013, 5001-801, Vila Real, Po ugal | Depa amen o de Zooloxía, Xené ica e An opoloxía Física, Uni e sidade de San iago de Compos ela, 15782, San iago de Compos ela, Spain Co esponding au ho : João C. Campos ([email p o ec ed]) Academic edi o : E ielle And ade Recei ed: 25 Ma 2021 | Accep ed: 12 May 2021 | Published: 24 Jun 2021 Ci a ion: Campos JC, Rod igues S, F ei as T, San os JA, Hon ado JP, Regos A (2021) Clima ic a iables and ecological modelling da a o bi ds, amphibians and ep iles in he T ansbounda y Biosphe e Rese e o Mese a Ibé ica (Po ugal-Spain). Biodi e si y Da a Jou nal 9: e66509. h ps://doi.o g/10.3897/BDJ.9.e66509 Abs ac Backg ound Clima e change has been widely accep ed as one o he majo h ea s o global biodi e si y and unde s anding i s po en ial e ec s on species dis ibu ion is c ucial o op imise conse a ion planning in u u e scena ios unde global change. In eg a ing de ailed clima ic da a ac oss spa ial and empo al scales in o species dis ibu ion modelling can help o p edic po en ial changes in biodi e si y. Consequen ly, his ype o da a can be use ul o de eloping e icien biodi e si y managemen and conse a ion planning. The p o ision o such da a becomes e en mo e impo an in highly biodi e se egions, cu en ly su e ing om clima ic and landscape changes. The T ansbounda y Biosphe e Rese e o ‡ ‡ § § ‡ | © Campos J e al. This is an open access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License (CC BY 4.0), which pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal au ho and sou ce a e c edi ed. Mese a Ibé ica (BRMI; Po ugal-Spain) is one o he mos ele an ese es o wildli e in Eu ope. This highly di e se egion is o g ea ecological and socio-economical in e es , su e ing om syne gis ic p ocesses o u al land abandonmen and clima ic ins abili ies ha cu en ly h ea en local biodi e si y. Aiming o op imise conse a ion planning in he Rese e, we p o ide a comple e da ase o his o ical and u u e clima e models (1 x 1 km) o he BRMI, used o build a se ies o dis ibu ion models o 207 e eb a e species. These models a e p ojec ed o 2050 unde wo clima e change scena ios. The clima ic sui abili y o 52% and 57% o he species a e p edic ed o dec ease unde he in e media e and ex eme clima ic scena ios, espec i ely. These models cons i u e amewo k da a o imp o ing local conse a ion planning in he Rese e, which should be u he suppo ed by implemen ing clima e and land-use change ac o s o inc ease he accu acy o u u e p edic ions o species dis ibu ions in he s udy a ea. New in o ma ion He ein, we p o ide a comple e da ase o s a e-o - he-a his o ical and u u e clima e model simula ions, gene a ed by global- egional clima e model chains, wi h clima ic a iables esol ed a a high spa ial esolu ion (1 × 1 km) o e he T ansbounda y Biosphe e Rese e o Mese a Ibé ica. Addi ionally, a comple e se ies o dis ibu ion models o 207 species (168 bi ds, 24 ep iles and 15 amphibians) unde u u e (2050) clima e change scena ios is deli e ed, which cons i u e amewo k da a o imp o ing local conse a ion planning in he ese e. Keywo ds biodi e si y, clima e change, clima e models, conse a ion, Ibe ian Peninsula, species dis ibu ion models. In oduc ion Unde s anding how species a e globally dis ibu ed and iden i ying he key ac o s ha in luence hei spa ial and empo al dis ibu ion pa e ns a e essen ial i s s eps o solid biodi e si y conse a ion planning (Whi ake e al. 2005). Species dis ibu ions a e p ima ily shaped by his o ical and con empo a y e en s, in which en i onmen al and landscape ac o s play a decisi e ole in de e mining spa ial and empo al dis ibu ion s a us and ends (Nogués-B a o e al. 2018). In his ega d, clima e change has been widely acknowledged as one o he majo cu en and u u e h ea s o global biodi e si y (Sippel e al. 2020, Ra en and Wagne 2021), causing geog aphical dis ibu ion shi s o a la ge numbe o species and, consequen ly, leading o species ex inc ion e en s, he dis up ion o en i e ecosys ems and also dep i a ion o human well-being (Pecl e al. 2017, Tu ne e al. 2020). As such, p o iding de ailed and in o ma i e clima ic da a a bo h spa ial 2Campos J e al and empo al scales is pa amoun o be e p edic ing po en ial en i onmen al impac s on biodi e si y and associa ed ecosys ems, which ul ima ely suppo op imised conse a ion planning unde global change (Newbold 2018). One o he mos impo an ools o assis ing e icien managemen and biodi e si y conse a ion planning is species dis ibu ion modelling (SDMs; A aújo e al. 2019). These me hods de i e s a is ical ela ionships be ween geog aphical species occu ences and en i onmen al p edic o s (such as clima ic ac o s), which can be consequen ly used o spa ially and empo ally p edic species dis ibu ions unde di e en en i onmen al scena ios (Guisan e al. 2017). In o de o e icien ly suppo biodi e si y conse a ion unde u u e en i onmen al condi ions, he combined e ec o landscape, conc e e land co e in o ma ion and clima e ac o s mus be aken in o accoun o imp o e he model p edic i e accu acy o po en ial u u e changes o species dis ibu ions (T i iño e al. 2018, Pausas and Millán 2019). Imp o ing he p edic i e powe o SDMs becomes pa amoun in highly biodi e se egions cu en ly unde se e e clima ic and landscape changes. In Eu ope, Medi e anean u al a eas a e pe ec examples o highly di e se egions om an ecological and socio- economical poin o iew, su e ing om inc eased e ec s o landscape and clima ic changes (Na a o and Pe ei a 2012). Fo ins ance, he T ansbounda y Biosphe e Rese e o Mese a Ibé ica (BRMI), one o he la ges ese es and impo an a eas o wildli e in Eu ope, wi h a ound 1,132,000 hec a es (www.unesco.o g), is cu en ly subjec ed o p ocesses o u al land abandonmen and clima ic ins abili ies ha ha e con ibu ed o he dis up ion o ecosys em p ocesses (e.g. escala ion o ex eme wild i es; Sil e al. 2019). The Rese e encompasses i e na u al pa ks and se e al Na u a 2000 si es, comp ising high landscape he e ogenei y and biodi e si y. As an example, he Rese e suppo s a la ge numbe o e eb a e species (a ound 250 species; www.unesco.o g), including se e al emblema ic axa o conse a ion conce n, such as he black s o k [Ciconia nig a (Linnaeus, 1758)], he Egyp ian ul u e [Neoph on pe noc e us (Linnaeus, 1766)], he Ibe ian og [Rana ibe ica (Boulenge , 1879)] and he Seoane’s ipe [ Vipe seoanei (La as e, 1879)]. Howe e , he cu en clima ic and landscapes changes cons i u e majo h ea s o he local biodi e si y and compiling amewo k da a abou how hese impac s migh in luence species dis ibu ion pa e ns in he u u e could con ibu e o egional and local conse a ion e o s. He e, we p esen a comple e da ase o his o ical (se ing as empo al baseline da a) and u u e clima e models wi h a high spa ial esolu ion (1 × 1 km) o he T ansbounda y Biosphe e Rese e o Mese a Ibé ica (Po ugal-Spain), as well as a comple e se ies o dis ibu ion models o 207 e eb a e species (168 bi ds, 24 ep iles and 15 amphibians), p ojec ed o a his o ical pe iod (1989-2005) and o u u e clima e change scena ios (2021-2050) in he Rese e. Clima ic a iables and ecological modelling da a o bi ds, amphibians ... 3 Gene al desc ip ion Pu pose: These da ase s we e de eloped o p o ide amewo k da a o biodi e si y conse a ion in one o he mos di e se Biosphe e Rese es in Eu ope. Addi ional in o ma ion: The clima e model da ase s (comp ising h ee main a iables – daily o al p ecipi a ion, maximum and minimum empe a u es) a e p o ided o wo main a eas: he Ibe ian Peninsula and he T ansbounda y Biosphe e Rese e o Mese a Ibé ica (Fig. 1). The clima e model simula ions a e p o ided o one his o ical pe iod (daily da a om 1989 o 2005) in he Ibe ian Peninsula (a 9 × 9 km) and wo pe iods (daily da a om 1989 o 2005 and om 2021 o 2050) in he Mese a Ibé ica (a 1 × 1 km). Fu u e clima e da a a e a ailable om ou Global-Regional Clima e Model chains and wo Rep esen a i e Concen a ion Pa hways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The SDMs a e p o ided o bo h a eas (10 × 10 km in he Ibe ian Peninsula and 1 × 1 km in he Mese a Ibé ica) and o one his o ical pe iod in he Ibe ian Peninsula (mean be ween 1989-2005) and wo pe iods in he Mese a Ibé ica (mean be ween 1989-2005 and mean be ween 2021 and 2050). The da a a e p o ided in comp essed olde s, con aining he ollowing in o ma ion: 1. Clima e model iles encompassing h ee clima ic a iables in ne CDF o ma ( iles o ganised acco ding o each a ea and empo al pe iod) and he co esponding bioclima ic a iables a ailable in . i o ma ; 2. Species models o 207 e eb a e species, including he co esponding spa ial p ojec ions o he his o ic and u u e scena ios ( iles o ganised acco ding o each species, a ea and empo al pe iod). Figu e 1. Geog aphic loca ion o he s udy a eas: he Ibe ian Peninsula (clima e a iables and biodi e si y da a p o ided a 10 × 10 km esolu ion) and he T ansbounda y Biosphe e Rese e o Mese a Ibé ica (da a p o ided a 1 × 1 km esolu ion). 4Campos J e al Sampling me hods S ep desc ip ion: P esence/absence da a o bi d species p esen in he Ibe ian Peninsula we e ob ained om he Spanish and Po uguese A las o B eeding Bi ds, a 10 km esolu ion (Ma í and Del Mo al 2003, Equipa A las 2008). P esence/absence da a o ep ile and amphibian species we e ex ac ed om he A las o Amphibians and Rep iles o Po ugal and Spain, a 10 km esolu ion (Pleguezuelos e al. 2002, Lou ei o e al. 2008). Only na i e species wi h a leas one p esence in he BRMI we e selec ed. In addi ion, species wi h less han 30 p esences in he Ibe ian Peninsula we e excluded o a oid model o e i ing (see A aújo e al. 2019). In he end, da a we e ob ained o 207 species: 168 bi ds, 24 ep iles and 15 amphibians (see Table 1). Taking in o accoun he axonomic unce ain ies o some species (see Table 1), he species lis was de e mined acco ding o he mos ecen ly upda ed e sions o he Al ases o a oid any axonomic con lic s (Sille o e al. 2014). G oup Scien i ic name Code N AUC h eshold Clima e models AUC TSS Amphibia Aly es cis e nasii ACI 1253 0.8 0.96 0.795 Amphibia Aly es obs e icans AOB 2336 0.8 0.927 0.681 Amphibia Bu o spinosus BSP 4471 0.7 0.915 0.654 Amphibia Discoglossus galganoi DGA 1930 0.7 0.993 0.924 Amphibia Epidalea calami a ECA 3973 0.7 0.949 0.757 Amphibia Hyla molle i HMO 1502 0.8 0.957 0.759 Amphibia Lisso i on boscai LBO 1695 0.8 0.948 0.76 Amphibia Lisso i on hel e icus LHE 701 0.8 0.971 0.833 Amphibia Peloba es cul ipes PCU 2221 0.8 0.968 0.786 Amphibia Pelophylax pe ezi PPE 5587 0.8 0.989 0.932 Amphibia Pelody es punc a us PPU 1765 0.7 0.95 0.776 Amphibia Pleu odeles wal l PWA 1897 0.8 0.918 0.659 Amphibia Rana ibe ica RIB 953 0.8 0.984 0.871 Amphibia Salamand a salamand a spp. SSA 2422 0.8 0.928 0.706 Amphibia T i u us ma mo a us spp. TMA 2485 0.7 0.924 0.673 Table 1. Species in o ma ion: axonomic g oup, scien i ic name, species code and numbe o p esences used o modelling (N). The quali y h eshold (a ea unde he cu e - AUC) used o model selec ion ( o be included on ensemble modelling) a e indica ed. The accu acy me ics o ensemble species dis ibu ion models (SDMs), measu ed by he AUC and T ue Skill S a is ics (TSS), a e also men ioned. Ten model eplica es we e conduc ed o each species. Clima ic a iables and ecological modelling da a o bi ds, amphibians ... 5 G oup Scien i ic name Code N AUC h eshold Clima e models AUC TSS Bi ds Accipi e gen ilis ACCGENT 2266 0.7 0.991 0.895 Bi ds Accipi e nisus ACCNISU 2565 0.7 0.984 0.88 Bi ds Ac ocephalus a undinaceus ACRARUN 1348 0.8 0.99 0.908 Bi ds Ac ocephalus sci paceus ACRSCIR 1581 0.7 0.991 0.912 Bi ds Aegi halos cauda us AEGCAUD 4157 0.7 0.888 0.599 Bi ds Alauda a ensis ALAARVE 2999 0.8 0.896 0.62 Bi ds Alcedo a his ALCATTH 2285 0.7 0.861 0.542 Bi ds Alec o is u a ALERUFA 5050 0.7 0.946 0.803 Bi ds Anas clypea a ANACLYP 141 0.8 0.987 0.945 Bi ds Anas pla y hynchos ANAPLAT 3354 0.7 0.871 0.56 Bi ds Anas s epe a ANASTRE 305 0.8 0.981 0.913 Bi ds An hus campes is ANTCAMP 2248 0.8 0.896 0.614 Bi ds An hus spinole a ANTSPIN 439 0.8 0.987 0.908 Bi ds An hus i ialis ANTTRIV 1163 0.8 0.97 0.846 Bi ds Apus melba APUMELB 1047 0.7 0.975 0.849 Bi ds Apus pallidus APUPALL 847 0.8 0.945 0.75 Bi ds Aquila ch ysae os AQUCHRY 700 0.7 0.968 0.835 Bi ds A dea cine ea ARDCINE 543 0.7 0.994 0.944 Bi ds A dea pu pu ea ARDPURP 259 0.8 0.977 0.872 Bi ds Asio lammeus ASIFLAM 77 0.8 0.991 0.973 Bi ds Asio o us ASIOTUS 1362 0.7 0.893 0.597 Bi ds A hene noc ua ATHNOCT 4424 0.7 0.962 0.793 Bi ds Ay hya e ina AYTFERI 195 0.8 0.987 0.94 Bi ds Bubo bubo BUBBUBO 2141 0.7 0.88 0.601 Bi ds Bubulcus ibis BUBIBIS 287 0.8 0.964 0.827 Bi ds Bu hinus oedicnemus BUROEDI 2264 0.8 0.975 0.836 Bi ds Bu eo bu eo BUTBUTE 4504 0.7 0.867 0.546 Bi ds Caland ella b achydac yla CALBRAC 2245 0.8 0.992 0.909 Bi ds Alauda u escens CALRUFE 246 0.8 0.985 0.903 Bi ds Cap imulgus eu opaeus CAPEURO 1979 0.8 0.899 0.618 Bi ds Cap imulgus u icollis CAPRUFI 1781 0.8 0.916 0.656 Bi ds Ca duelis spinus CARSPIN 84 0.8 0.99 0.963 6Campos J e al G oup Scien i ic name Code N AUC h eshold Clima e models AUC TSS Bi ds Hi undo dau ica CECDAUR 1253 0.8 0.992 0.952 Bi ds Ce hia b achydac yla CERBRAC 2336 0.7 0.868 0.56 Bi ds Ce ia ce i CETCETT 4471 0.7 0.927 0.674 Bi ds Cha ad ius dubius CHADUBI 1930 0.7 0.989 0.896 Bi ds Che sophilus dupon i CHEDUPO 3973 0.8 0.98 0.907 Bi ds Chlidonias hyb ida CHLHYBR 1502 0.8 0.991 0.959 Bi ds Ciconia ciconia CICCICO 1695 0.8 0.927 0.705 Bi ds Ciconia nig a CICNIGR 701 0.8 0.964 0.838 Bi ds Cinclus cinclus CINCINC 2221 0.8 0.937 0.728 Bi ds Ci cus ae uginosus CIRAERU 5587 0.8 0.979 0.891 Bi ds Ci cus cyaneus CIRCYAN 1765 0.8 0.963 0.832 Bi ds Ci cae us gallicus CIRGALL 1897 0.7 0.944 0.728 Bi ds Ci cus pyga gus CIRPYGA 953 0.7 0.992 0.913 Bi ds Cis icola juncidis CISJUNC 2422 0.8 0.97 0.814 Bi ds Clama o glanda ius CLAGLAN 2485 0.7 0.994 0.925 Bi ds Cocco h aus es cocco h aus es COCCOCC 2266 0.8 0.965 0.818 Bi ds Columba li ia COLLIVI 2565 0.7 0.945 0.787 Bi ds Columba oenas COLOENA 1348 0.8 0.917 0.68 Bi ds Columba palumbus COLPALU 1581 0.7 0.947 0.793 Bi ds Co us co one CORCORO 4157 0.8 0.936 0.701 Bi ds Co acias ga ulus CORGARR 2999 0.8 0.927 0.705 Bi ds Co us monedula CORMONE 2285 0.7 0.992 0.902 Bi ds Co u nix co u nix COTCOTU 5050 0.7 0.934 0.717 Bi ds Cuculus cano us CUCCANO 141 0.7 0.98 0.856 Bi ds Cyanopica cyana CYACYAN 3354 0.8 0.954 0.765 Bi ds Dend ocopos majo DENMAJO 305 0.8 0.974 0.814 Bi ds Dend ocopos mino DENMINO 2248 0.8 0.95 0.751 Bi ds Eg e a ga ze a EGRGARZ 439 0.8 0.976 0.878 Bi ds Elanus cae uleus ELACAER 1163 0.8 0.943 0.734 Bi ds Embe iza caland a EMBCALA 1047 0.7 0.908 0.695 Bi ds Embe iza cia EMBCIA 847 0.8 0.94 0.681 Bi ds Embe iza ci lus EMBCIRL 700 0.7 0.991 0.901 Clima ic a iables and ecological modelling da a o bi ds, amphibians ... 7 G oup Scien i ic name Code N AUC h eshold Clima e models AUC TSS Bi ds Embe iza ci inella EMBCITR 543 0.8 0.983 0.898 Bi ds Embe iza ho ulana EMBHORT 259 0.8 0.947 0.755 Bi ds E i hacus ubecula ERIRUBE 77 0.8 0.905 0.619 Bi ds Falco naumanni FALNAUM 1362 0.8 0.93 0.723 Bi ds Falco pe eg inus FALPERE 4424 0.8 0.99 0.892 Bi ds Falco subbu eo FALSUBB 195 0.7 0.975 0.819 Bi ds Ficedula hypoleuca FICHYPO 2141 0.8 0.975 0.899 Bi ds F ingilla coelebs FRICOEL 287 0.7 0.901 0.644 Bi ds Fulica a a FULATRA 2264 0.8 0.927 0.688 Bi ds Gallinula chlo opus GALCHLO 4504 0.7 0.874 0.593 Bi ds Gale ida c is a a GALCRIS 2245 0.8 0.934 0.701 Bi ds Gale ida heklae GALTHEK 246 0.8 0.943 0.710 Bi ds Ga ulus glanda ius GARGLAN 1979 0.8 0.945 0.717 Bi ds Gyps ul us GYPFULV 1781 0.7 0.999 0.98 Bi ds Hie aae us ascia us HIEFASC 84 0.8 0.997 0.956 Bi ds Hie aae us penna us HIEPENN 1253 0.7 0.99 0.889 Bi ds Himan opus himan opus HIMHIMA 2336 0.8 0.921 0.668 Bi ds Ixob ychus minu us IXOMINU 4471 0.8 0.991 0.944 Bi ds Jynx o quilla JYNTORQ 1930 0.7 0.989 0.891 Bi ds Lanius collu io LANCOLL 3973 0.8 0.971 0.855 Bi ds Lanius excubi o LANEXCU 1502 0.7 0.885 0.611 Bi ds Lanius sena o LANSENA 1695 0.8 0.947 0.761 Bi ds La us idibundus LARRIDI 701 0.8 0.994 0.968 Bi ds Loxia cu i os a LOXCURV 2221 0.8 0.931 0.733 Bi ds Lullula a bo ea LULARBO 5587 0.7 0.99 0.897 Bi ds Luscinia mega hynchos LUSMEGA 1765 0.7 0.992 0.923 Bi ds Cyanecula s ecica LUSSVEC 1897 0.8 0.995 0.969 Bi ds Melanoco ypha caland a MELCALA 953 0.8 0.918 0.681 Bi ds Me ops apias e MERAPIA 2422 0.8 0.938 0.717 Bi ds Mil us mig ans MILMIGR 2485 0.7 0.976 0.835 Bi ds Mil us mil us MILMILV 2266 0.8 0.938 0.727 Bi ds Mon icola saxa ilis MONSAXA 2565 0.8 0.941 0.751 8Campos J e al G oup Scien i ic name Code N AUC h eshold Clima e models AUC TSS Bi ds Mon icola soli a ius MONSOLI 1348 0.8 0.992 0.908 Bi ds Mo acilla alba MOTALBA 1581 0.7 0.971 0.864 Bi ds Mo acilla cine ea MOTCINE 4157 0.8 0.94 0.7 Bi ds Mo acilla la a MOTFLAV 2999 0.8 0.97 0.836 Bi ds Muscicapa s ia a MUSSTRI 2285 0.7 0.977 0.835 Bi ds Neoph on pe cnop e us NEOPERC 5050 0.7 0.97 0.876 Bi ds Nyc ico ax nyc ico ax NYCNYCT 141 0.8 0.995 0.974 Bi ds Oenan he hispanica OENHISP 3354 0.8 0.909 0.686 Bi ds Oenan he leucu a OENLEUC 305 0.8 0.945 0.754 Bi ds Oenan he oenan he OENOENA 2248 0.8 0.923 0.674 Bi ds O iolus o iolus ORIORIO 439 0.7 0.91 0.666 Bi ds O is a da OTITARD 1163 0.8 0.961 0.797 Bi ds O us scops OTUSCOP 1047 0.7 0.925 0.695 Bi ds Pe ipa us a e PARATER 847 0.8 0.92 0.669 Bi ds Pa us cae uleus PARCAER 700 0.7 0.884 0.599 Bi ds Pa us c is a us PARCRIS 543 0.8 0.985 0.863 Bi ds Pa us majo PARMAJO 259 0.7 0.935 0.745 Bi ds Passe hispaniolensis PASHISP 77 0.8 0.942 0.736 Bi ds Passe mon anus PASMONT 1362 0.7 0.869 0.541 Bi ds Pe nis api o us PERAPIV 4424 0.8 0.937 0.736 Bi ds Pe dix pe dix PERPERD 195 0.8 0.993 0.954 Bi ds Pe onia pe onia PETPETR 2141 0.8 0.905 0.63 Bi ds Phasianus colchicus PHACOLC 287 0.8 0.997 0.985 Bi ds Phoenicu us och u os PHOOCHR 2264 0.8 0.91 0.632 Bi ds Phoenicu us phoenicu us PHOPHOE 4504 0.8 0.949 0.77 Bi ds Phylloscopus bonelli PHYBONE 2245 0.8 0.906 0.626 Bi ds Phylloscopus collybi a PHYCOLL 246 0.8 0.922 0.678 Bi ds Phylloscopus ibe icus PHYIBER 1979 0.8 0.935 0.729 Bi ds Pica pica PICPICA 1781 0.7 0.86 0.536 Bi ds Picus i idis PICVIRI 84 0.7 0.868 0.551 Bi ds Podiceps c is a us PODCRIS 1253 0.8 0.978 0.889 Bi ds Podiceps nig icollis PODNIGR 2336 0.8 0.993 0.962 Clima ic a iables and ecological modelling da a o bi ds, amphibians ... 9 Files o he u u e pe iod - MI_MODEL_RCP_MR_ALT_VAR_1 Code desc ip ion - MI e e s o he Mese a Ibé ica, MODEL o he clima e model used (CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 - CNRM; ICHEC-EC-EARTH - ICHEC; IPSL-IPSL-CM5A-MR - IPSL; MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR - MPI), RCP o he Rep esen a i e Concen a ion Pa hway (RCP 4.5 - 45; RCP 8.5 - 85), MR o he u u e pe iod, ALT o he al i udinal-based co ec ion o clima e a iables, VAR o he h ee p o ided a iables (RR - daily p ecip a ion; TMAX - Maximum empe a u e; TMIN - Minimum empe a u e) and 1 o he spa ial esolu ion (1 km). Da a se name: Species dis ibu ion models Download URL: Pa 1: h ps://zenodo.o g/ eco d/4598254#.YFTkjdxUnIU Pa 2: h ps://zenodo.o g/ eco d/4599822#.YFTl 9xUnIU Desc ip ion: Species dis ibu ion models o 207 e eb a es dis ibu ed in he Ibe ian Peninsula and he T ansbounda y Biosphe e Rese e o Mese a Ibé ica. The models a e a ailable a 10 × 10 km esolu ion o he Ibe ian Peninsula (clima e models o 2005). Model p ojec ions a e a ailable o 2005 and 2050 ( o he CNRM, ICHEC, IPSL and MPI clima e models and he RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scena ios) o he Biosphe e Rese e a 1 × 1 km esolu ion. Da a di ided in o wo pa s. Column label Column desc ip ion Clima e models Species dis ibu ion models o 207 e eb a es o 2005 and 2050 Acknowledgemen s This esea ch was suppo ed by Po uguese na ional unds h ough FCT - Founda ion o Science and Technology, I.P., unde he Fi ESma p ojec (PCIF/MOG/0083/2017) and by p ojec INMODES (CGL2017-89999-C2-2-R), unded by he Spanish Minis y o Science and Inno a ion. AR was suppo ed by he Xun a de Galicia (ED481B2016/084-0) and he IACOBUS p og amme (INTERREG V-A España–Po ugal, POCTEP 2014-2020). This wo k was also suppo ed by Na ional Funds by FCT - Po uguese Founda ion o Science and Technology, unde he p ojec UIDB/04033/2020. Au ho con ibu ions D a p epa a ion: JCC. Analyses and p epa a ion o clima e da a: TF, JAS, JCC. Species dis ibu ion modelling and da a p epa a ion: SR, JCC. Visualisa ion: JCC. Re iew and edi ing: all au ho s. 16 Campos J e al Re e ences • A aújo MB, Ande son RP, Má cia Ba bosa A, Beale CM, Do mann CF, Ea ly R, Ga cia RA, Guisan A, Maio ano L, Naimi B, O’Ha a R, Zimme mann NE, Rahbek C (2019) S anda ds o dis ibu ion models in biodi e si y assessmen s. Science Ad ances 5 (1): eaa 4858. h ps://doi.o g/10.1126/sciad .aa 4858 • Co nes R, an de Sch ie G, an den Besselaa EM, Jones P (2018) An ensemble e sion o he E-OBS empe a u e and p ecipi a ion da a se s. Jou nal o Geophysical Resea ch: A mosphe es 123 (17): 9391‑9409. h ps://doi.o g/10.1029/2017jd028200 • Equipa A las (2008) A las das A es Nidi ican es em Po ugal (1999-2005). Ins i u o da Conse ação da Na u eza e da Biodi e sidade, Sociedade Po uguesa pa a o Es udo das A es, Pa que Na u al da Madei a e Sec e a ia Regional do Ambien e e do Ma . Ass io & Al im, Lisboa. • Guisan A, Thuille W, Zimme mann NE (2017) Habi a sui abili y and dis ibu ion models: wi h applica ions in R. Camb idge Uni e si y P ess, Camb idge. h ps://doi.o g/ 10.1017/9781139028271 • Jacob D, Teichmann C, Sobolowski S, Ka agkou E, Ande s I, Belda M, Benes ad R, Bobe g F, Buonomo E, Ca doso RM, Casanue a A, Ch is ensen O, Ch is ensen JH, Coppola E, De C uz L, Da in EL, Doble A, Domínguez M, Fealy R, Fe nandez J, Gae ne MA, Ga cía-Díez M, Gio gi F, Gobie A, Goe gen K, Gómez-Na a o JJ, Alemán JJG, Gu ié ez C, Gu ié ez J, Gü le I, Haensle A, Halenka T, Je ez S, Jiménez-Gue e o P, Jones RG, Keule K, Kjells öm E, Knis S, Ko la ski S, Ma aun D, an Meijgaa d E, Me cogliano P, Mon á ez JP, Na a a A, Nikulin G, de Noble - Ducoud é N, Pani z H-J, P ei e S, Piazza M, Pichelli E, Pie ikäinen J-P, P ein A, P euschmann S, Rechid D, Rockel B, Rome a R, Sánchez E, Sieck K, Soa es PMM, Somo S, S nec L, Sø land SL, Te monia P, T uhe z H, Vau a d R, Wa ach-Sagi K, Wul meye V (2020) Regional clima e downscaling o e Eu ope: pe spec i es om he EURO-CORDEX communi y. Regional En i onmen al Change 20 (2): 51. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9 • Lou ei o A, Almeida N, Ca e e o MA, Paulo OS (2008) A las dos an íbios e ép eis de Po ugal. Ins i u o da Conse ação da Na u eza e da Biodi e sidade. Lisboa, 257 pp. • Ma í R, Del Mo al JC (2003) A las de las a es ep oduc o as de España. Di ección Gene al de Conse ación de la Na u aleza-Sociedad Española de O ni ologa. • Na a o L, Pe ei a H (2012) Rewilding abandoned landscapes in Eu ope. Ecosys ems 15 (6): 900‑912. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s10021-012-9558-7 • Newbold T (2018) Fu u e e ec s o clima e and land-use change on e es ial e eb a e communi y di e si y unde di e en scena ios. P oceedings o he Royal Socie y B: Biological Sciences 285 (1881). h ps://doi.o g/10.1098/ spb.2018.0792 • Nogués-B a o D, Rod íguez-Sánchez F, O sini L, de Boe E, Jansson R, Mo lon H, Fo dham D, Jackson S (2018) C acking he code o biodi e si y esponses o pas clima e change. T ends in Ecology & E olu ion 33 (10): 765‑776. h ps://doi.o g/ 10.1016/j. ee.2018.07.005 • Pausas JG, Millán MM (2019) G eening and b owning in a clima e change ho spo : The Medi e anean Basin. BioScience 69 (2): 143‑151. h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/biosci/biy157 • Pecl G, A aújo M, Bell J, Blancha d J, Boneb ake T, Chen I, Cla k T, Colwell R, Danielsen F, E engå d B, Falconi L, Fe ie S, F ushe S, Ga cia R, G i is R, Hobday A, Clima ic a iables and ecological modelling da a o bi ds, amphibians ... 17 Janion-Scheepe s C, Ja zyna M, Jennings S, Lenoi J, Linne ed H, Ma in V, McCo mack P, McDonald J, Mi chell N, Mus onen T, Pandol i J, Pe o elli N, Popo a E, Robinson S, Sche e s B, Shaw J, So e CB, S ugnell J, Sunday J, Tuanmu M, Ve gés A, Villanue a C, We nbe g T, Waps a E, Williams S (2017) Biodi e si y edis ibu ion unde clima e change: Impac s on ecosys ems and human well-being. Science 355 (6332): eaai9214. h ps://doi.o g/10.1126/science.aai9214 • Pleguezuelos JM, Ma quez R, Lizana M (2002) A las y Lib o Rojo de los an ibios y ep iles de España. Di ección Gene al de Conse ación de la Na u aleza-Asociación He pe ologica Española. 587 pp. • Ra en P, Wagne D (2021) Ag icul u al in ensi ica ion and clima e change a e apidly dec easing insec biodi e si y. P oceedings o he Na ional Academy o Sciences 118 (2). h ps://doi.o g/10.1073/pnas.2002548117 • Sil Â, Fe nandes P, Rod igues AP, Alonso J, Hon ado J, Pe e a A, Aze edo J (2019) Fa mland abandonmen dec eases he i e egula ion capaci y and he i e p o ec ion ecosys em se ice in moun ain landscapes. Ecosys em Se ices 36 h ps://doi.o g/ 10.1016/j.ecose .2019.100908 • Sille o N, Campos J, Bona di A, Co i C, C eeme s R, C oche P, C nob nja Isailo ić J, Denoël M, Fice ola GF, Gonçal es J, Kuzmin S, Lymbe akis P, de Pous P, Rod íguez A, Sindaco R, Speyb oeck J, Toxopeus B, Viei es D, Vences M (2014) Upda ed dis ibu ion and biogeog aphy o amphibians and ep iles o Eu ope. Amphibia-Rep ilia 35 (1): 1‑31. h ps://doi.o g/10.1163/15685381-00002935 • Sippel S, Meinshausen N, Fische E, Székely E, Knu i R (2020) Clima e change now de ec able om any single day o wea he a global scale. Na u e Clima e Change 10 (1): 35‑41. h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7 • Thuille W, La ou cade B, Engle R, A aújo M (2009) BIOMOD - a pla o m o ensemble o ecas ing o species dis ibu ions. Ecog aphy 32 (3): 369‑373. h ps://doi.o g/10.1111/j. 1600-0587.2008.05742.x • T i iño M, Kujala H, A aújo M, Cabeza M (2018) Planning o he u u e: iden i ying conse a ion p io i y a eas o Ibe ian bi ds unde clima e change. Landscape Ecology 33 (4): 659‑673. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s10980-018-0626-z • Tu ne M, Calde WJ, Cumming G, Hughes T, Jen sch A, LaDeau S, Len on T, Shuman B, Tu e sky M, Ra ajczak Z, Williams J, Williams AP, Ca pen e S (2020) Clima e change, ecosys ems and ab up change: science p io i ies. Philosophical T ansac ions o he Royal Socie y B: Biological Sciences 375 (1794). h ps://doi.o g/10.1098/ s b. 2019.0105 • Whi ake R, A aújo M, Jepson P, Ladle R, Wa son JM, Willis K (2005) Conse a ion biogeog aphy: Assessmen and p ospec . Di e si y and Dis ibu ions 11 (1): 3‑23. h ps://doi.o g/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2005.00143.x 18 Campos J e al Supplemen a y ma e ial Suppl. ma e ial 1: Pea son co ela ion analysis be ween bioclima ic a iables Au ho s: João C. Campos; Sa a Rod igues; Te esa F ei as; João A. San os; João P. Hon ado, Ad ián Regos Da a ype: S a is ical analyses Download ile (543.99 kb) Clima ic a iables and ecological modelling da a o bi ds, amphibians ... 19