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DETERMINANTS OF HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED EU COUNTRIES

Šubová, Nikola

Abstract

Household debt has been increasing in the last decades, and it poses a threat not only to the financial stability of households but is a precursor of the economic and financial crisis. A downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic is expected to deepening inequalities, mainly due to the inability of households to repay existing debts or finance basic living needs. Understanding the determinants of household indebtedness and financial vulnerability is crucial for policymakers who process measures to prevent increasing household indebtedness. This paper investigates the determinants of household financial vulnerability in euro area countries using the Household Finance and Consumption Survey micro-dataset collected by the European Central Bank. The quantitative approach was applied using ordinary least square and quantile estimation procedures. The difference between OLS and quantile estimations showed the appropriateness of using the quantile regression approach. Performance analysis proved that only the number of elderly and the value of wealth and existence of mortgage interest tax relief statistically significant affects the level of vulnerability in all three waves. While the increasing number of elderly and greater value of household wealth lowers the vulnerability, the effect of mortgage interest tax relief differs across individual waves. All other used factors are essential and statistically significant for the financial vulnerability of households as well, but the importance and significance could differ across the distribution and individual waves. The effect of financial assets, education, and employment were found to be negative in all observations of all waves. On the other hand, the number of children and the value of households’ real assets is associated with increased financial vulnerability indicators.

Full text

186 2021, XXIV, 3 Finance 10.15240/ ul/001/2021-3-011 DETERMINANTS OF HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED EU COUNTRIES Nikola Šubo á1, Ladisla Mu a2, Ján Buleca3 1 Technical Uni e si y o Košice, Facul y o Economics, Depa men o Finance, Slo akia, ORCID: 0000-0003-0158-2332, [email p o ec ed]; 2 Pan-Eu opean Uni e si y, Facul y o Economics and Business, Depa men o In e na ional En ep eneu ship, Slo akia, ORCID: 0000-0002-2453-8740, ladisla [email p o ec ed]; 3 Technical Uni e si y o Košice, Facul y o Economics, Depa men o Finance, Slo akia, ORCID: 0000-0002-6613-2167, [email p o ec ed] (co esponding au ho ). Abs ac : Household deb has been inc easing in he las decades, and i poses a h ea no only o he inancial s abili y o households bu is a p ecu so o he economic and inancial c isis. A down u n caused by he co ona i us pandemic is expec ed o deepening inequali ies, mainly due o he inabili y o households o epay exis ing deb s o inance basic li ing needs. Unde s anding he de e minan s o household indeb edness and inancial ulne abili y is c ucial o policymake s who p ocess measu es o p e en inc easing household indeb edness. This pape in es iga es he de e minan s o household inancial ulne abili y in eu o a ea coun ies using he Household Finance and Consump ion Su ey mic o-da ase collec ed by he Eu opean Cen al Bank. The quan i a i e app oach was applied using o dina y leas squa e and quan ile es ima ion p ocedu es. The di e ence be ween OLS and quan ile es ima ions showed he app op ia eness o using he quan ile eg ession app oach. Pe o mance analysis p o ed ha only he numbe o elde ly and he alue o weal h and exis ence o mo gage in e es ax elie s a is ically signi ican a ec s he le el o ulne abili y in all h ee wa es. While he inc easing numbe o elde ly and g ea e alue o household weal h lowe s he ulne abili y, he e ec o mo gage in e es ax elie di e s ac oss indi idual wa es. All o he used ac o s a e essen ial and s a is ically signi ican o he inancial ulne abili y o households as well, bu he impo ance and signi icance could di e ac oss he dis ibu ion and indi idual wa es. The e ec o inancial asse s, educa ion, and employmen we e ound o be nega i e in all obse a ions o all wa es. On he o he hand, he numbe o child en and he alue o households’ eal asse s is associa ed wi h inc eased inancial ulne abili y indica o s. Keywo ds: Household, ulne abili y, indeb edness, eg ession analysis. JEL Classi ica ion: C21, D14, G51. APA S yle Ci a ion: Šubo á, N., Mu a, L., & Buleca, J. (2021). De e minan s o Household Financial Vulne abili y: E idence om Selec ed EU coun ies. E&M Economics and Managemen , 24(3), 186–207. h ps://doi.o g/10.15240/ ul/001/2021-3-011 In oduc ion The inancial c isis o 2007/2008, known as he global inancial c isis, caused by a combina ion o an asse p ice bubble in he eal es a e sec o and a c edi bubble leading o excessi e le e age, highligh ed he impo ance o he household sec o o inancial s abili y o he whole economy. Easy o ge a loan and he belie ha he house p ices would app ecia e encou aged mo e bo owe s o ge in o deb . Ame ican households and inancial ins i u ions became deeply indeb ed. A he end o 2007, Ame ican households’ o al loans and deb secu i ies ela i e o he GDP was 98.55% (In e na ional Mone a y Fund, 2020). Mo gage de aul s caused by he inancial c isis a ec ed EM_3_2021.indd 186 8.9.2021 9:58:19 187 3, XXIV, 2021 Finance inancial s abili y also in Eu opean coun ies. The household sec o can in luence he economy mainly due o i s size and posi ion on he inancial ma ke s, bu on he o he hand, he economic si ua ion o households is also a ec ed by a ious social, economic, and poli ical changes. High inancial ulne abili y and high le el o household deb a e p ecu so s o c isis ha esul in a g owing in e es in analysing he inancial si ua ion, isk p o ile, and s abili y o households. Financial ulne abili y is he s a us o inancial ins abili y, in which households a e exposed o a ious inancial isks and shocks (Lee & Sab i, 2017). Financial ulne abili y is also ep esen ed as he po e y o asse s o lowe weal h accumula ion, leading o he inabili y o cope wi h unexpec ed si ua ions such as unemploymen , illness, o highe housing- ela ed expenses (Abid & Sha iai, 2018; Noe hidaja i e al., 2021). Vulne able households do no pose a isk only o he economy bu also o hemsel es due o se e al easons. Lack o inancial s abili y, inabili y o inance consump ion and a highe le el o indeb edness a ec u u e well-being and psychological ea u es o household membe s as well. In connec ion wi h ensu ing inancial s abili y and lowe ing he ulne abili y o households, pe sonal inancial managemen is conside ed he mos signi ican p oblem. Managing esou ces and gaining con ol o e he inancial si ua ion allow indi iduals o assess he inancial si ua ion o he en i e household (T eano , 2016; Lee & Sab i, 2017). The mos common indica o o household inancial ulne abili y is household deb used o calcula e a ious ulne abili y measu emen s (deb - o-asse a io, deb - o-income a io, deb se ice- o-income a io). Household deb in he eu o a ea e alua ed by he g oss deb - o-income a io has luc ua ed in he las decade. I eached he highes le el in 2010 (98.79%). F om his yea , he eu o a ea household deb has dec eased by 5.11%. The highes alue o he g oss deb - o- income a io was epo ed in Denma k (214.16%) and Cyp us (134.18%), while he lowes alue o his indica o was eco ded in Romania (24.00%), Hunga y (33.31%), and La ia (32.19%) in 2019. The g oss deb - o-income a io o he Slo ak households has isen om 30.87% in 2007 o 69.64% in 2019 (Eu os a , 2019). The massi e inc ease o household deb o e he las decades could be pa ially a ibu ed o he in oduc ion o he economic and mone a y union ha caused a con e gence o coun ies’ in e es a es joined in he Eu ozone. The common cu ency Eu o elimina ed he exchange a e isk and made loans mo e a ailable (Yildi im, 2015; Nölke, 2016). Nowadays, he h ea o household indeb edness inc eases as he economic c isis caused by he co ona i us is expec ed o deepen inequali ies due o he inabili y o epay exis ing deb and o inance basic li ing needs. Two yea s be o e he pandemic hi , one o h ee EU households could no handle unexpec ed expenses, while sa ings o many households we e equi alen o jus a ew weeks o basic consump ions (Deme izs e al., 2020). As he c isis o las yea has led o subs an ial educ ions in ea nings, i has u he educed he abili y o households o inance unexpec ed expendi u es (Midões & Se é, 2020). Mo eo e , one o he main ools o educing inancial ulne abili y is a su icien le el o liquid inancial asse s, especially sa ings ha can be used as an income eplacemen . Compa ed o U.S. households, Eu opean households ha e ewe inancial asse s, and i also con ibu es o he impo ance o ulne abili y analysis (Eu os a , 2021; S a is a, 2021). F om a p ac ical poin o iew, household inancial s abili y is essen ial o de eloped coun ies as i ep esen s one o he h ea s o economic eco e y om he economic c isis. To ale households o isk ac o s and ake p e en i e measu es sui able o di e en households, i is necessa y o know wha has he mos signi ican impac on ulne abili y. The e o e, he e is a ques ion abou which ac o s deepen he inancial ulne abili y he mos and whe he i changes a a ious le els o indeb edness. The submi ed pape aims o iden i y socio- demog aphic de e minan s o indeb edness aising he household inancial ulne abili y in selec ed EU coun ies. The pape also analyses how he implemen ed mac op uden ial policies ansla e in o di e en le els o household inancial ulne abili y indica o . The s udy esul s can help na ional and in e na ional au ho i ies de e mine which household cha ac e is ics and household heads need o be suppo ed o educe inancial ulne abili y. Fu he mo e, he conduc ed s udy helps o answe he ollowing esea ch ques ions:  Wha a e he key demog aphic and social ac o s a ec ing he le el o households’ inancial ulne abili y? EM_3_2021.indd 187 8.9.2021 9:58:19 188 2021, XXIV, 3 Finance  Wha e ec do di e en implemen ed mac op uden ial policies ha e on he le el o households’ inancial ulne abili y? 1. Backg ound Households a e ulne able due o se e al easons. The mos c i ical ac o s a ec ing inancial s abili y and ulne abili y a e socio- demog aphic, economic cha ac e is ics (income, sol ency, age, he le el o educa ion, household size, ma i al s a us, inancial beha iou , and sol ency), and pe sonal cha ac e is ics ( isk ole ance, inancial li e acy) o each membe in he household (Rahim, 2011; Ca he ine e al., 2016; Daud e al., 2018; Walugemde e al., 2019). Households’ socio- demog aphic cha ac e is ics such as age, household size, numbe o child en, gende , and educa ion d i e ulne abili y o ces. To mi iga e he inancial ulne abili y o households and i s consequences, he numbe o s udies analysing he de e minan s o ulne abili y has inc eased. In addi ion, conside able a en ion is pu o inancial ulne abili y using a ious econome ic me hods and ulne abili y measu emen s. Household membe s acqui e inancial managemen skills a an ea ly age. They a e su ounded by di e en social g oups and occasionally y o imi a e he consump ion habi s and li ing s anda ds o hei neighbou s, colleagues, and people a ound hem e en hey ha e lowe income. Households ha canno co e hei consump ion a e mo e indeb ed, bu hey a e mo e likely o be unable o pay o hei deb s and expose hemsel es o inancial ins abili y. Inc easing income inequali y igge s deb - inanced consump ion, leads o deb accumula ion, and inc eases households’ inancial ulne abili y (Wildaue , 2016). Young people usually se up hei households; hey a e d i en by ma e ialism and bo ow ea ly. I leads o deb accumula ion and h ea s o inancial s abili y. The e ec o age on deb is nega i e because olde people usually spend less and do no co e hei consump ion by deb . I is con i med in he s udies using simple eg ession and mul ile el mixed-e ec linea eg ession (Danzige e al., 1982; Haq e al., 2018). The inancial ulne abili y o households dec eases wi h he inc easing age (G ejcz & Żółkiewski, 2017; Azzopa di e al., 2019). Con a y o his, ano he c oss-coun y analysis o households’ inancial ulne abili y and i s de e minan s based on he es ima ion o a linea eg ession equa ion showed ha young people a e mo e suscep ible o po en ial ulne abili y (Daud e al., 2018). Howe e , a highe deb o households wi h young membe s is no as ala ming as he indeb edness o he elde ly ha Modigliani’s Li e Cycle Income Hypo hesis desc ibes. Acco ding o his hypo hesis, he income o indi iduals inc eases o e he li e cycle un il i eaches he maximum in midli e. I is associa ed wi h mo e signi ican sa ings (Modigliani, 1986). On he o he hand, he income o olde people usually dec eases. Wi hou e ec i e pension sys ems, insu ance plans, and suppo sys ems, hey canno epay deb s ha pose a isk no only o hei inancial s abili y bu also o he s abili y o inancial ins i u ions. Household size and he numbe o child en also ha e a no iceable e ec on he demand o loans, bu i can be seen indi ec ly h ough li ing expenses. Analysing mic o inance and household’s access o c edi by p obi modelling in he s udy o Togba (2012) showed ha households wi h mo e membe s ha e highe expenses, and he e o e he e is a highe p obabili y o applying o a loan o und hei consump ion. A s udy using a quan ile eg ession app oach o de e mine he cha ac e is ics o households’ sa ing a e explains ha child en a e usually e e ed o as indica o s o household dependency. As a esul , households wi h mo e child en spend mo e and sa e less (Hua & E eyge s, 2019). A s udy de e mining he cha ac e is ics o household o e -indeb edness showed ha he inancial s abili y o households depends on he gende o he household head, and he inancial beha iou o men and women can di e . Female-headed households a e usually mo e indeb ed, explained by he lowe age o e i emen , uns able and lowe a e age income, and esponsibili y o bea ing child en. Al hough deb - o-income a ios a e usually much mo e o male-headed households, emales wi h loans a e mo e likely o be o e -indeb ed and unable o epay he exis ing loan (N salaze & Ikhide, 2016). On he o he hand, women a e usually mo e isk-a e se he e o e p e e in es men s in sa e , lowe -yield asse s ha lowe hei inancial ulne abili y (Killewald e al., 2018). Ano he socio-demog aphic ac o essen ial o he inancial s abili y o households is he le el o educa ion. Highe le els o EM_3_2021.indd 188 8.9.2021 9:58:19 189 3, XXIV, 2021 Finance educa ion and inancial li e acy lowe inancial ulne abili y because i imp o es inancial knowledge and skills. I is associa ed wi h a be e unde s anding o he di e en inancial p oduc s and has dec eased inancial ulne abili y. Financial li e acy and sel -con ol in luence he le el o unsecu ed deb o e ed by non-banking ins i u ions, and i is also e lec ed in inancial ulne abili y indica o s (S i e al., 2020). Households wi h he lowe educa ional a ainmen o each membe a e mo e indeb ed and end o ail in deb epaymen (Azzopa di e al., 2019). On he o he hand, he households wi h a highe le el o educa ion ha e be e inancial managemen and lowe inancial ulne abili y and inancial agili y (Noe hidaja i e al., 2021; Yuso e al., 2015). Ano he s udy analysing measu emen s and de e minan s o household inancial ulne abili y by he ac ional logi es ima ion echnique explains ha educa ional le els p edic he abili y o a household o manage inancial esou ces. Educa ional a ainmen is also essen ial in he sa ings p ocess. Subjec s wi h lowe educa ional a ainmen end o sa e less. On he o he hand, mo e signi ican sa ings o indi iduals wi h highe educa ion help o e come unexpec ed economic si ua ions and main ain inancial s abili y (B ounen e al., 2016). A s udy by Sachin e al. (2018) explains ha inancial ulne abili y is in luenced by inancial de e minan s such as asse s, weal h, and income. An asse is nega i ely associa ed wi h he le el o inancial ulne abili y while i is a quick sou ce o income mainly in unexpec ed si ua ions, bu only a speci ic ype o asse s leads o he lowe inancial ulne abili y. Fo example, sa ings a e quickly mone isable asse s, and he e o e hey could be used as an income eplacemen . On he o he hand, he e ec o buildings and land asse s owne ship is no con i med while hey a e high illiquid, and i is ha d o use hese asse s immedia ely in an unexpec ed si ua ion. I is explained in he s udy using desc ip i e esea ch in analysing spending pa e ns and hei e ec s on inancial ulne abili y. Financial ulne abili y is d i en by low weal h as well. Weal h accumula ion helps build eme gency unds ha can help make a s ess ul economic si ua ion easie o handle. Basic mic oeconomic heo y sugges s ha highe income dec eases inancial ulne abili y, bu esea ch pape s’ esul s can be wo old. Fi s ly, i is in line wi h he s udy sugges ing ha he income le el is nega i ely associa ed wi h household ulne abili y while highe income allows indi iduals o abso b ad e se shocks such as inc easing in la ion o illness (Noe hidaja i e al., 2021). Addi ionally, i some household membe s lose hei jobs, hey lose hei income, and he e o e hey smoo h consump ion by bo owing (Kuk, 2017). On he o he hand, ano he s udy examining he household indeb edness and inancial well- being by O dina y Leas Squa e Reg ession con i med ha highe income causes g ea e indeb edness. Thus, i inc eases ulne abili y h ough highe access o deb (Handayani e al., 2016). Se e al s udies poin ed o he e ec o mac oeconomic ac o s impo an o household ulne abili y. The mos conside able mac oeconomic ac o s a ec ing ulne abili y a e in e es a es, le el o unemploymen , and house p ices, bu he le el o indeb edness depends on he mac op uden ial policy. Reg ession analysis o he household deb , mac oeconomic undamen als, and household cha ac e is ics indica ed ha g ea e unemploymen , in e es a es, and inc easing house p ices e lec he highe ulne abili y o households (Ca he ine e al., 2016; Pa elka & Tomas, 2016). The posi i e e ec o unemploymen and in e es a es on ulne abili y is also con i med by analysing de e minan s o household deb based on he au o eg essi e dis ibu ed lag modelling and O dina y Leas Squa e (Abid & Sha iai, 2018; Azmin e al., 2019). The le el o household indeb edness and ulne abili y migh depend on he coun y households li e in and i s policies. Some coun ies (Belgium, he Czech Republic, Denma k, Es onia, Finland, I aly, Luxembou g, he Ne he lands, Sweden) p o ide a mo gage in e es ax elie ha allows homeowne s o deduc hei in e es on a loan. Highe ax deduc ion inc eases he demand o deb (Bo e e al., 2016). Many s udies con i med ha mo gage in e es ax elie encou ages people o buy la ge homes and commi o la ge mo gages (Alpanda & Zabai y, 2017; G ube e al., 2017). In he case o he ax deduc ion aboli ion, he e is an immedia e educ ion in in es men in housing by a ound 6.00%. As a esul , i is subsequen ly e lec ed in indica o s o household indeb edness and inancial s abili y (Keigh ley, 2020). EM_3_2021.indd 189 8.9.2021 9:58:19 190 2021, XXIV, 3 Finance Mo eo e , a ious coun ies ha e se di e en limi s on loan- o- alue a ios (LTV). An inc ease in LTV leads o a highe demand o secu ed deb , mainly o young and low-income households, because hey may inance hei p ope y almos en i ely by deb (Ba ios e al., 2019). Ano he s udy explains ha households holding loans wi h a lowe LTV a e conside ed less ulne able due o con inued abili y o epay exis ing loans e en in a decline in p ope y p ices (Bilyk e al., 2017). Rela ed o he de ini ion o household inancial ulne abili y, a ious measu emen s o ulne abili y can be used. The mos common indica o o ulne abili y is he deb se ice- o- income a io gi en by he sha e o obliga ed deb paymen s and disposable income (Ampudia e al., 2015). Au ho s o o he s udies use he deb - o-income a io and deb - o-asse a io o measu e he inancial ulne abili y o households (Fessle e al., 2017; Leika & Ma che ini, 2017). These measu es o inancial ulne abili y used a ious h esholds o de ine a household as ulne able. Fo example, Te aneo (2018), and Fessle e al. (2017) se he h eshold le el o deb - o-asse a io a 75%, o deb - o-income a io a h ee imes and deb se ice- o-income a io a 40%. The au ho s a gue ha households wi h indica o s abo e hese alues a e no in de aul a p esen , bu he e is a g ea e p obabili y o ha ing di icul ies in he u u e. 2. Da a Desc ip ion P esen ed analysis used he Household Finance and Consump ion Su ey (HFCS) da a, con aining in o ma ion on socio-demog aphic a iables, asse s, liabili ies, income, consump ion, and household inancial si ua ion and economic beha iou . I is conduc ed in he Eu ozone membe s a es om 2010/ea ly 2011 e e y h ee yea s. HFCS is coo dina ed by he Eu opean Cen al Bank (ECB), and in each coun y, i is ca ied ou by he Na ional Cen al Bank. The esponden sample size was inc easing in each wa e: 62,000 households (15 coun ies) in HFCS 1; 84,600 households (20 coun ies) in HFCS 2; and he o al sample size o he HFCS da a om he hi d wa e we e 91,200 households (22 coun ies) (Eu opean Cen al Bank, 2016b). The da ase is based on me hodological p inciples, ensu ing he compa abili y o esul s in a ious Eu opean coun ies (Eu opean Cen al Bank, 2016a). A speci ic me hodological aspec o he da a is he use o Bayesian-based mul iple impu a ions ha helps o ackle he issue o non- esponse. The impu a ion p ocess esul s in i e e sions o da a and helps o p ese e he cha ac e is ics o he dis ibu ion and he ela ionships be ween di e en a iables. Mo eo e , o ensu e he sample’s ep esen a i eness, HFCS used a se o popula ion weigh s as well, and he sum o he es ima ion weigh s equals he o al numbe o households in he coun y. The Na ional Banks calib a ed he weigh s based on he numbe o households wi h 1, 2, 3 o mo e membe s, he numbe o men and women, di e en age g oups in each egion, and dis ibu ion o he popula ion acco ding o he economic ac i i y (Eu opean Cen al Bank, 2016b). Speci ic limi s o HFCS e lec s i s c oss- sec ional basis, so he sample o in e iewed households can di e ac oss he wa es. I is essen ial o ake his ea u e in o accoun mainly when in e p e ing changes in he cha ac e is ics o speci ic g oups o households. Mo eo e , he HFCS sample does no ha e a panel s uc u e as a whole. I should be highligh ed ha i is no easible o d aw any conclusions on he economic pe o mance o he same households ac oss he indi idual wa es (Eu opean Cen al Bank, 2020). E e y wa e o he su ey has a di e en coun y base as well. The lis o coun ies ha pa icipa ed in he indi idual wa es o he HFCS is a ached in he Appendix (Tab. A1). The alues o asse s and liabili ies a e ob ained by sel -assessmen , bu hey use suppo i e documen a ion such as accoun s a emen s o ax e u ns. This s ep o da a collec ion is conside ed a delibe a e choice, gi en he goal o using he su ey o s udy he beha iou o indi idual households (Eu opean Cen al Bank, 2021). Despi e men ioned limi a ions o HFCS, i is he only ha monised se o da a based on households’ balance shee s which p o ide de ailed household-le el in o ma ion on weal h o he en i e household popula ion ac oss he EU coun ies (Fessle & Schü z, 2018; Te aneo, 2018). The app oach o analyse he de e minan s o household inancial ulne abili y includes he ollowing household cha ac e is ics: Household ulne abili y: To measu e he household inancial ulne abili y, he a io be ween o al mon hly deb paymen s and household g oss mon hly income was used. EM_3_2021.indd 190 8.9.2021 9:58:19 191 3, XXIV, 2021 Finance The g ea es mean ulne abili y o households in he HFCS wi h he alue o 170.30% was eco ded in he hi d wa e. The mean ulne abili y o households had dec eased be ween he i s and he second wa e om 133.60% o 128.18%. The median ulne abili y was lowe han he mean and was dec easing he whole analysed pe iod, om 13.00% in he i s wa e o 12.30% in he second and 11.00% in he hi d wa e. P esence o he elde ly: The a iable p esence o he elde ly p o ides in o ma ion abou he numbe o household membe s aged 65 yea s o mo e li ing in one household. Mos membe s olde han 65 yea s li ing in one household we e eco ded in he i s wa e (5 membe s), while in he second and hi d wa e, no mo e han i e membe s aged 65 and mo e li ed unde he same oo . Child en: All dependen pe sons aged 0–15 and pe sons aged 16–24 do no wo k and always li e wi h a pa en – he mos dependen child en (13) li ing in one household in he i s wa e. The a e age numbe o dependen child en was dec easing in all h ee wa es. On he o he hand, numbe o households wi hou child en inc eased om 65.91% in he i s o 68.81% in he second and 70.22% in he hi d wa e. Educa ion: Va iable in o ms abou he highes comple ed educa ion o he e e ence pe son. HFCS uses Canbe a ISCED classi ica ion, and in his s udy, six s ages o ISCED classi ica ion a e agg ega ed in o ou ca ego ies. The i s ca ego y includes no o mal/below ISCED 1 educa ion and p ima y educa ion, he second lowe seconda y and second s age o p ima y educa ion. The hi d ca ego y ob ains uppe seconda y and pos -seconda y educa ion, while he ou h ep esen s e ia y and highe educa ion. In all h ee wa es, he mos e e ence pe sons ha e uppe seconda y educa ion, while households wi hou educa ion had he smalles sha e. Gende : I is a dummy a iable equal o 1 i he e e ence pe son is men, o he wise = 0. In all h ee wa es, he sha e o men in a posi ion o e e ence pe son was almos wo imes highe han he sha e o women. Employmen : Numbe o household membe s ha a e cu en ly employed. The mos signi ican sha e had households wi hou any employed household membe s in all h ee wa es. The mean numbe o employed household membe s was 0.97 in he i s , 0.95 in he second, and 0.98 in he hi d wa e, while he median numbe was equal o one in all h ee su eys. Real asse s: Real asse s o households ep esen s he alue o o al eal asse s, including he p ima y esidence, ehicles, aluables, and business asse s exp essed in eu os. The a e age alue o a household’s eal asse s was he highes in he i s wa e, 467,539.26 eu os. On he con a y, he lowes a e age alue was 337,854.39 eu os eco ded in he hi d wa e. Financial asse s: Financial asse s include he alue o deposi s, mu ual unds, bonds, sha es, and money owed o households exp essed in eu os. The a e age alue o a household’s inancial asse s was dec easing he whole h ee wa es, om 119,535.63 eu os in he i s o 98,999.30 eu os in he hi d wa e. Weal h: Va iable weal h exp ess o al household asse s minus o al ou s anding household liabili ies in eu os. The mos signi ican a e age household weal h was in he second wa e (425,714.74 eu os). The lowes a e age weal h o households was eco ded in he hi d wa e, 208,208.40 eu os. The lowes median weal h o households ha pa icipa ed in he HFCS was 114,597.60 eu os in he hi d wa e. Loca ion: Dummy a iable indica ing whe he he household li es in a coun y o Wes e n Eu ope = 1, o he wise = 0. To ake in o accoun he di e ences o indi idual coun ies om he mac oeconomic poin o iew, he ollowing a iables ep esen ing di e en implemen ed mac op uden ial policies published by he Eu opean Commission (2019) we e also included in he analysis: Loan- o- alue a io: Va iable ep esen ing he limi o he loan- o- alue a io o a gi en coun y. LTV = 1, i household li es in a coun y whe e he maximum LTV is in he ange 0.60–0.80; LTV = 2, i he maximum LTV is in he ange 0.81–0.99, and LTV = 3 i he maximum LTV is mo e han 0.99. Mo gages in e es ax elie : Dummy a iable ha deno es he exis ence o ax elie on mo gage paymen s. The a iable equals one i he household li es in a coun y whe e such an exemp ion exis s, o he wise = 0. Desc ip i e s a is ic o a iables is summa ised in Tab. 1 and Tab. 2. All s a is ics we e calcula ed using he HFCS da abase, su ey weigh s, and i e impu ed da ase s. EM_3_2021.indd 191 8.9.2021 9:58:20 192 2021, XXIV, 3 Finance 3. Me hodology De e minan s o household inancial ulne abili y we e es ima ed ollowing he o dina y leas squa e (OLS) eg ession. OLS eg ession allows de e mining he ela i e in luence o one o mo e p edic o s (explana o y) a iables o he c i e ion alue (explained a iable) by es ima ing condi ional mean unc ions. Addi ionally, es ima ed coe icien s in he eg ession mean app oach exp ess he a e age change in he explained a iable associa ed wi h a one-uni change in he ela ed explana o y a iable. The gene al equa ion o he OLS mul iple eg ession model has he ollowing o m: Yi = β0 + β1xi,1 + β2xi,2 + … + εi (1) Va iable Minimum Maximum Mean Median S d. de . Vulne abili y Fi s wa e 0.00 545.16 1.34 0.13 46.07 Seconds wa e 0.00 678.00 2.28 0.12 48.13 Thi d wa e 0.00 471.00 1.70 0.11 45.32 Weal h (EUR housand) Fi s wa e −57,203.15 401,119.66 234.94 116.47 8.54 Seconds wa e −3,850.00 524,042.00 425.71 136.66 310.10 Thi d wa e −6,758.20 369,417.85 208.21 114.60 289.80 Real asse s (EUR housand) Fi s wa e 0.00 391,419.30 467.54 198.56 2,630.06 Seconds wa e 0.00 468,442.00 355.60 150.50 2,346.41 Thi d wa e 0.00 345,312.43 337.85 141.42 1,913.96 Financial asse s (EUR housand) Fi s wa e 0.00 101,139.66 119.54 13.30 956.84 Seconds wa e 0.00 295,488.21 108.29 9.92 137.82 Thi d wa e 0.00 192,392.51 99.00 9.79 1,148.05 Employmen Fi s wa e 0.00 6.00 0.97 1.00 0.01 Seconds wa e 0.00 7.00 0.95 1.00 0.01 Thi d wa e 0.00 8.00 0.98 1.00 1.38 Child en Fi s wa e 0.00 13.00 0.54 0.00 0.01 Seconds wa e 0.00 11.00 0.53 0.00 0.01 Thi d wa e 0.00 12.00 0.52 0.00 0.01 Elde ly Fi s wa e 0.00 5.00 0.42 0.00 0.01 Seconds wa e 0.00 4.00 0.44 0.00 0.01 Thi d wa e 0.00 4.00 0.45 0.00 2.45 Sou ce: HFCS, own Tab. 1: Desc ip i e s a is ic EM_3_2021.indd 192 8.9.2021 9:58:20 193 3, XXIV, 2021 Finance whe e: Yi : explained a iable, in case o ou s udy i was he inancial ulne abili y ep esen ed by deb se ice- o-income a io; x1 , x2 , ..., xi : explana o y a iables, ep esen he household cha ac e is ics in an obse a ion i; i: he numbe o obse a ions, i = 0, 1, 2, …, N; ε: e o e m; Va iable Fi s wa e Second wa e Thi d wa e Gende Men 68.76 62.39 61.65 Women 31.24 37.61 38.35 Educa ion Null 1.60 0.78 0.14 ISCED 1 19.25 14.61 13.42 ISCED 2 16.23 15.20 12.75 ISCED 3 34.38 39.82 42.18 ISCED 4 3.64 2.87 3.57 ISCED 5 22.70 24.69 25.81 ISCED 6 2.20 2.03 2.13 Employmen Null 36.71 38.19 36.94 One 33.46 32.80 33.33 Two 26.24 25.49 25.83 Th ee 2.97 2.95 3.04 Fou 0.57 0.56 0.73 Fi e and mo e 0.05 0.01 0.13 Elde ly Null 65.99 67.49 66.51 One 20.40 21.66 22.01 Two 10.81 10.72 11.37 Th ee 1.02 0.12 0.10 Fou and mo e 1.78 0.01 0.01 Child en Null 65.91 68.81 70.22 One 15.81 15.12 13.65 Two 12.68 12.50 11.75 Th ee 3.17 3.07 3.36 Fou 0.60 0.71 0.77 Fi e and mo e 1.83 0.25 0.25 Sou ce: HFCS, own Tab. 2: Desc ip i e s a is ic (% sha e o household based on household cha ac e is ics) EM_3_2021.indd 193 8.9.2021 9:58:20 194 2021, XXIV, 3 Finance β0: es ima ed Y-in e cep ; βj: p oxy he alue o eg ession coe icien j o j = 0, 1, 2, …, K. The o dina y leas squa es es ima o is ob ained by minimizing he sum o squa ed esiduals: (2) OLS model was checked o compe ing key assump ions: mul i a ia e no mali y, no au oco ela ion, and homoscedas ici y, and no co ela ion be ween explana o y a iables using Ja que-Be a es , VIF ac o , Du bin-Wa son es , B eusch-Pagan es , and Gold eld-Quand es . Viola ion o some o hese assump ions should lead o biased coe icien es ima ions. He e oscedas ici y and au oco ela ion- consis en (HAC) es ima o s o he a iance- co a iance ma ix helped sol e his issue (Zeileis e al., 2004). While he leas -squa es eg ession analysis does no gi e obus esul s in he p esence o ou lie s and da a should ha e skewness and ku osis ha ma ches a no mal dis ibu ion, as an al e na i e, quan ile eg ession was used (Noma ye & Phi i, 2017; Ri e o & San oman, 2018; Hua & E eyge s, 2019). The quan ile eg ession app oach can be applied e en i he assump ion o homoscedas ici y is iola ed. Fo example, OLS eg ession conside s he e ec o explana o y on explained a iables a he mean, bu quan ile eg ession conside s his ela ionship a di e en quan iles (deno ed by q) o he dis ibu ion o an explained a iable (Koenke & Basse , 1978). Quan ile eg ession aims a es ima ing he condi ional median (o o he quan iles) o he esponse a iable employing symme ic weigh s o he median (quan ile = 0.5) and asymme ic weigh s o o he quan iles (e.g., 0.1, 0.2, ..., 0.9). Quan ile eg ession es ima es a e ob ained by minimising an asymme ically weigh ed sum o absolu e de ia ions (Waldmann, 2018). Following Koenke and Basse (1978), conside (yi , xi) i = 1, ..., N a andom sample ob ained om a popula ion, whe e xi is a ec o o explana o y a iables and yi ep esen s explained a iable. Then he gene al equa ion o eg ession o a ce ain quan ile 0 < θ <1 is de ined as he solu ion o he minimiza ion p oblem: (3) Mone a y alues (weal h, income, asse s, and deb ) used in he p esen ed s udy do no mee he s a is ical assump ions o esea ch mainly due o skewed dis ibu ions o en; he e o e, he na u al log and ca ego ical ans o ma ions a e used. Howe e , when he na u al log is no he mos app op ia e ans o ma ion, he e a e se e al cases, while i should no be aken o ze o o nega i e alues. The submi ed pape used in e se hype bolic sine ans o ma ion ha can be exp essed as (F iedline e al., 2014): (4) whe e: x is he a iable o in e es (weal h, asse , deb ) and ihs(x) is he ans o med e sion o his a iable. The whole s a is ical compu ing analysis was execu ed in he R so wa e en i onmen (R Co e Team, 2018) and ook in o accoun he weigh s and mul iple impu a ions o he HFCS da abase. 4. Resea ch Resul s and Discussion The e ec o household and household head cha ac e is ics on he le el o household inancial ulne abili y in he selec ed Eu opean coun ies is epo ed in Tab. 3, Tab. 4, and Tab. 5 ha display he esul s o OLS and quan ile eg ession. The i s column con ains he OLS es ima es, he second OLS es ima es a e applica ion o he e oscedas ici y and au oco ela ion consis en (HAC) co a iance ma ix. The nex columns show he esul s o quan ile eg ession acco ding o a ious quan iles. G ey shaded ows display es ima es, while whi e i alic ows a e p- alues (bold on indica es s a is ical signi icance). Mo eo e , sca e plo isualisa ion was used and p esen ed in Fig. 1, Fig. 2, and Fig. 3. The x-axis displays he quan iles, while he y-axis p esen s coe icien s. The s aigh do ed line ep esen s OLS es ima es, and wo s aigh dashed lines show OLS con idence in e als. EM_3_2021.indd 194 8.9.2021 9:58:20 201 3, XXIV, 2021 Finance o cope wi h exis ing inancial commi men s (Eu opean Cen al Bank, 2013). House p ices decline lowe ed he ne weal h o households ela i e o hei deb . A he same ime, deb paymen s swelled in eac ion o in la ion and dep ecia ion. As a consequence o he global inancial c isis, many Eu opean households los inancial s abili y and had o cope wi h ulne abili y (Claessens e al., 2014). Thus, he economic en i onmen and essen ial changes in he alue o eal es a e and household ne weal h signi ican ly a ec ed he ulne abili y o households in he second wa e o he su ey. Ou esul s indica e ha weal h, inancial, and eal asse s a e s a is ically signi ican in each decile o ulne abili y dis ibu ion compa ed o he i s wa e. Ano he s a is ically signi ican de e minan ac oss he whole dis ibu ion o deb se ice- o-income a io is mo gage in e es ax elie , he numbe o elde lies, and employmen . The las hi d wa e o he HFCS epo ed in Tab. 5 and Fig. 3 did no signi ican ly di e om he p e ious wo wa es. In he pe iod be ween he yea o he second (2014) and hi d (2017) su ey, he g adual economic eco e y associa ed wi h he s eadily declining unemploymen a e and lowe ing cos s o household deb could be obse ed. Conce ning his, he hi d wa e highligh ed he he e ogeneous de elopmen s in o al liabili ies and asse s o households. In his pe iod, he mos indeb ed Eu opean households could eel an easing o hei inancial p essu e mainly due o income and asse p ices ising due o economic eco e y (Eu opean Cen al Bank, 2020). Fig. 3: Resul s o quan ile eg ession om he hi d wa e o he HFCS Sou ce: FCS, own EM_3_2021.indd 201 8.9.2021 9:58:23 202 2021, XXIV, 3 Finance As i can be seen, he impac o household, household-head cha ac e is ics, inancial, and mac oeconomic de e minan s gene ally emained unchanged in all h ee wa es excep o mo gage in e es ax elie , LTV es ic ions, and dummy a iables Loca ion and Gende . A a iable ep esen ing he exis ence o mo gage in e es ax elie showed he mos conside able di e ence. While in he i s wo wa es o he HFCS su ey we e households om coun ies wi h mo gage in e es ax elie less indeb ed, ax deduc ion was associa ed wi h inc eased ulne abili y in he las wa e. Al hough he lis o coun ies (Belgium, Es onia, Finland, I aly, Luxembou g, he Ne he lands) p o iding his ype o ax deduc ion did no change be ween 2014 and 2017, household demand o mo gages inc eased. Thus, while mo gage in e es ax elie encou ages people o buy la ge homes and commi o la ge mo gages (Alpanda & Zabai y, 2017; G ube e al., 2017), i h ea ens household inancial s abili y. The HFCS hi d wa e esul s also show ha only male-headed households om he i s decile o deb se ice- o-income dis ibu ion a e mo e ulne able a e con olling all a iables. Acco ding o he esul s o analysis applied on he da a om he las wa e, households om Wes e n Eu opean coun ies a e less ulne able in he case o he uppe ou deciles. The di e ence was eco ded in he s a is ical signi icance o analysed a iables as well. Compa ed o he p e ious wo wa es, esul s con i m ha mo gage in e es ax elie , he numbe o elde lies, and he alue o eal asse s a e s a is ically signi ican ac o s. Mo eo e , he loan- o- alue a io and inancial asse s a e also s a is ically signi ican in he hi d wa e o HFCS. Conclusions In he cu en economic si ua ion, households ha e a challenging ole while conside ing hei expec a ions o li ing s anda ds and inancial decisions. Household economic beha iou , o e -indeb edness, and inancial ulne abili y ha e an impac on he inancial ma ke s and a e p ecu so s o c isis as well. I esul ed in a g owing in e es in analysing he inancial beha iou , isk p o ile, and s abili y o households. New da a su eys such as HFCS ha e opened a b oad ield o in es iga ing household indeb edness and allows au ho i ies o ake p i a e household cha ac e is ics in o accoun . The empi ical esea ch o his pape ocused on he po en ial d i e s o household inancial ulne abili y in eu o a ea households. By using all h ee wa es o HFCS ob ained om he Eu opean Cen al Bank, OLS and quan ile eg ession es ima ion p ocedu es we e conduc ed o conside he e ec o household, household-head, and coun y- speci ic cha ac e is ics on he le el o household ulne abili y. To ake in o accoun he skewness o mone a y alues, hype bolic sine ans o ma ion was used. In esponse o he esea ch ques ions, i can be s a ed ha only he numbe o household membe s aged 65 and mo e and he le el o weal h we e s a is ically signi ican socio-demog aphic ac o s ac oss he whole ulne abili y dis ibu ion in all h ee wa es. Mo e household membe s aged 65+ and g ea e alue o household weal h we e associa ed wi h he dec ease o household inancial agili y indica o . A mo e signi ican di e ence in esul s was obse ed in he case o a iables ep esen ing implemen ed mac op uden ial policies. In he i s wa e, he g ea e LTV has associa ed wi h an inc ease in he deb se ice- o-income a io. Households om coun ies wi h he exis ence o mo gage in e es ax elie epo ed lowe inancial ulne abili y. Resul s om he hi d wa e showed ha g ea e LTV leads o lowe ulne abili y, while ax deduc ion expec s highe ulne abili y o households. Wha exac ly explains he di e ence in he esul s is an open ques ion ha dese es o be explo ed u he . O he explana o y a iables did no epo s a is ical signi icance ac oss he whole dis ibu ion o ulne abili y. Howe e , mos o he explained a iables eco ded he same e ec on household inancial ulne abili y indica o s ac oss i s whole dis ibu ion in all h ee wa es. Resul s indica ed ha he numbe o child en and he alue o eal asse s we e he only a iables ha posi i ely a ec ed he ulne abili y in all Household Finance and Consump ion Su ey obse a ions. On he o he hand, he e ec o weal h, inancial asse s, educa ion, and employmen was nega i e in all obse a ions o all wa es. Howe e , his s udy has some limi a ions. Fo example, speci ic ea u es o he HFCS da abase, such as new coun ies pa icipa ed EM_3_2021.indd 202 8.9.2021 9:58:23 203 3, XXIV, 2021 Finance in each wa e o di e ences in he me hodology, could lead o biased esul s be ween indi idual wa es, and i should be aken in o conside a ion. The e o e, o u u e esea ch, we ecommend ex ending he analysis o indi idual coun ies. The submi ed s udy con ibu es o he exis ing li e a u e in se e al ways. Fi s ly, household-le el da a (HFCS) allowed de ailed analysis o household inancial ulne abili y and household and household-head cha ac e is ics. Fu he mo e, he applica ion o coun y-speci ic a iables enabled he conside a ion o he di e en coun ies and hei implemen ed policies ha could a ec he le el o ulne abili y. Secondly, while mos o he s udies analysing he de e minan s o inancial s abili y used da a om one wa e o he HFCS su ey, i does no allow o conside he di e en economic si ua ion ha due o he global inancial c isis occu ed be ween he i s and second wa e o he HFCS su ey. Quan ile eg ession applied indi idually o each wa e hus allows no only o compa e he esul s and ill his gap, bu also o con ibu e o he exis ing li e a u e. Mo eo e , using he quan ile eg ession app oach conside ed ha ac o s in luencing he le el o household ulne abili y could di e in indi idual quan iles o household ulne abili y dis ibu ion. Acknowledgemen s: This pape used he da a om he Eu osys em Household Finance and Consump ion Su ey. The Eu opean Cen al Bank is no esponsible o he esul s in e p e ed in his esea ch pape . The p esen ed pape is a pa ially ou pu om he G an GAAA 5-5/2020 “Family business in egions”. Re e ences Abid, A., & Sha iai, M. H. M. (2018). De e minan s o Household Financial Vulne abili y in Malaysia and I s E ec on Low-Income G oups. Jou nal o Eme ging Economies & Islamic Resea ch, 6(1), 32–43. h ps://doi.o g/10.24191/jeei . 6i1.8772 Alpanda, S., & Zubai y, S. (2017). Add essing Household Indeb edness: Mone a y, Fiscal o Mac op uden ial Policy? Eu opean Economic Re iew, 92, 47–73. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j. eu oeco e .2016.11.004 Ampudia, M., Vlokho en, H. A., & Żochowski, D. (2016). 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Jou nal o S a is ical So wa e, 11(10), 17. h ps://doi. o g/10.18637/jss. 011.i10 EM_3_2021.indd 206 8.9.2021 9:58:23 207 3, XXIV, 2021 Finance Appendix Fi s wa e (HFCS 2010) Second wa e (HFCS 2014) Thi d wa e (HFCS 2017) Aus ia, Belgium, Cyp us, Ge many, Spain, Finland, F ance, G eece, I aly, Mal a, Luxembou g, he Ne he lands, Po ugal, Slo enia, Slo akia Aus ia, Belgium, Cyp us, Ge many, Spain, Finland, F ance, G eece, I aly, Mal a, Luxembou g, he Ne he lands, Po ugal, Slo enia, Slo akia, Poland, I eland, Hunga y, Es onia, Li huania Aus ia, Belgium, Cyp us, Ge many, Spain, Finland, F ance, G eece, I aly, Mal a, Luxembou g, he Ne he lands, Po ugal, Slo enia, Slo akia, Poland, I eland, Hunga y, Es onia, Li huania, C oa ia, La ia Sou ce: HFCS, own No e: Coun ies w i en in bold pa icipa ed in he su ey o he i s ime. Tab. A1: Coun ies pa icipa ed in he HFCS EM_3_2021.indd 207 8.9.2021 9:58:23