Climate change influences on aviation : A literature review

This is a self-archived version of an original article. This version may differ from the original in pagination and typographic details. Author(s): Title: Year: Version: Copyright: Rights: Rights url: Please cite the original version: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Climate change influences on aviation : A literature review © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Accepted version (Final draft) Ryley, Tim; Baumeister, Stefan; Coulter, Liese Ryley, T., Baumeister, S., & Coulter, L. (2020). Climate change influences on aviation : A literature review. Transport Policy, 92, 55-64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.04.010 2020 1 Climate change influences on aviation: a literature review Tim Ryley - Griffith Aviation, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia Stefan Baumeister - University of Jyväskylä, Finland and Griffith Aviation, Griffith University Liese Coulter – University of Leeds, UK Contact author: Professor Tim Ryley Head, Griffith Aviation School of Engineering and Built Engineering, Nathan campus, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Brisbane, Queensland 4111, Australia Telephone:- +61 (0)7 3735 5358 Email:- [email protected] Abstract While the aviation sector has long been referenced as contributing to the causes of climate change, the need for aviation to adapt to the consequences of climate change has not been as well researched or considered. The paper is a systematic quantitative literature review on climate change and aviation, which aims to explicate significant issues affecting aviation in a changing climate and to identify the aviation industry responses on climate change and adaptation. There are 46 references involved in the detailed assessment, selected according to variables such as methodology, paper outcomes and industry stakeholder. This emergent aviation and climate change adaptation literature could be broadened to cover more disciplines and approaches, an increased range of aviation stakeholders and go further beyond the larger airport case studies in developed countries. Further practical and policy developments are needed, particularly surrounding adaptation planning in aviation and the social justice implications of associated policies. Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, aviation industry, literature review Published in Transport Policy (2020) 2 1. Introduction The growth in air travel has been accompanied by increasing concerns surrounding the associated environmental implications, seen as externalities (Dessens et al., 2014; Kilic et al., 2019). As such, the aviation sector is a major contributor to climate change, and the proportion attributed to aviation is set to increase because it is one of the hardest sectors to achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions (Andres and Padilla, 2018; Bows-Larkin et al., 2016; Schafer and Waitz, 2014). This is especially the case when compared to other forms of energy consumption, such as industrial and domestic use (Banister, 2019). Much of the research focus has been on greenhouse gas mitigation measures to reduce the environmental impacts from aviation. Climate change has started to impact aspects of human environmental interactions (IPCC, 2014a). While the aviation sector has long been referenced as contributing to the causes of climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, the need for aviation to adapt to the consequences of climate change has not been well researched or considered (Burbidge, 2018; Thompson, 2016). Adaptation considers how impacts and risks caused by climate change can be reduced and managed, while emission reductions are designed to mitigate the causes of climate change (IPCC, 2014b). There are high levels of natural variability in the climate system, evidenced by extreme weather events causing heat waves, droughts and floods. According to Burbidge (2018), the projected climate impacts affecting aviation most directly are changes in precipitation and temperature, sea-level rise, wind changes and the impacts of more extreme weather events. In addition, climate change shifts the parameters of the systems that underpin weather patterns, to provide new sets of impacts and risks that will require different management strategies (Dilling et al., 2015). The paper is a systematic quantitative literature review on climate change and aviation, with two associated aims. Firstly, to explicate significant issues affecting aviation in a changing climate. Secondly, to identify the aviation industry responses to climate change and adaptation. The focus is on aviation actors and interests considering climate change implications and policies rather than the chemistry, engineering and other physical drivers and constraints to accomplish a specific pathway to adaptation. The next section outlines the methodology behind our systematic review of climate change and adaptation. Sections 3 and 4 discuss the review findings and present conclusions, respectively. 2. Methodology The systematic quantitative literature review was conducted in October 2019. Three databases (Scopus, Web of Science and ProQuest) were searched to capture peer-reviewed industry and academic publications, using broad aviation and climate change search criteria. The search terms were “air transportation”, “aviation” or “civil aviation” and “greenhouse gas”, “global warming” or “climate change”. The search included title, abstract and keywords and was limited to works published within the past 20 years. The search under these criteria in all three databases resulted in a total number of 6,222 publications. 3 In a second stage, all 6,222 publications were evaluated for their fit with our study. First, all duplicates and non-climate records were removed. In terms of non-climate records publications were rejected: where aviation was only related to remote sensing or data collection; where aviation was only related to environmental goals or sustainability but not climate change causes or consequences; where emissions related to pollution but not climate change, carbon dioxide or greenhouse gases; and where alternative fuels and practices were sought for cost saving, health and other goals without acknowledging climate change mitigation or adaptation issues. The relationship between aviation, climate change and vector-borne disease risk was another emerging area of concern, however, no records focused on the impacts these issues might have on aviation, so none were retained. In a third stage, we removed all non-adaptation records. These could roughly be classified into three groups. The first group focused on mitigation related to the contributions of aviation to climate change through fuel emissions and contrails of frozen condensed water, or to the exploration of emission reduction solutions through engineering and alternative fuel innovations. The second group focused on trade and cost issues, especially on cost of emission reductions, or potential carbon trading or taxations schemes which had not yet included aviation. The third group of publications that were removed covered mainly passenger choices and behavioral change to achieve emissions reductions, as well as carbon neutral programs and additional energy efficiency aims. Even though references predominantly focused on mitigation measures were removed, some papers focusing on adaptation that also contain mitigation aspects, remained in the sample. In a fourth stage, we removed any remaining publications that were not related to climate change influences on aviation. This left 92 records, which in a fifth stage underwent a full-text analysis that yielded 46 publications suitable for our study. A flow diagram for the selection of articles is shown in Figure 1. In a sixth stage, the 46 remaining publications were reviewed in more detail and classified according to the background of the research, industry response and outcomes generated, as shown in Table 1. Figure 1. A flow diagram for the selection of articles 4 Table 1 The study background and primary outcome from the 46 full-text papers n Paper Study background Primary outcomes 1 Becken (2013) Literature review on tourism and climate change. Research linking climate impacts and tourism has increased to become a knowledge domain in its’ own right. It now includes multiple dimensions (e.g. climate impacts, adaptation, mitigation & policy), and studies have become more integrative and critical. 2 Bows et al. (2008) Chapter within book on aviation and climate change. There are uncomfortable choices for governments. They will need to curb aviation growth to ensure efficiency improvement rates stay akin to passenger-km growth rates, while at the same time they will need to work on adaptation to prepare for climate change impacts. 3 Buckley (2011) Investigation into whether slow travel tourism trips will supersede short breaks under climate change. It is suggested that a group of slow travellers will emerge, to supersede those taking short breaks, accompanied by a new group of tourism providers (e.g. accommodation, food & communications). 4 Budd & Ryley (2012) Chapter examining the relationship between aviation and climate change. The aviation sector needs to identify the possible impacts of climate change on air travel operations, both to aircraft in flight and to operations at airports. A further challenge will be to devise adaptation plans that will address the vulnerabilities and thus ensure safe aviation-related operations. 5 Burbidge (2016) Review of European airports adapting to climate change. Knowledge gaps are identified, which are raising awareness and promoting collaboration as key steps in building climate change resilience for the European and global aviation sector. 6 Burbidge (2018) Paper on climate change adaptation of aviation sector. Further development of Burbidge (2006), paper 5, clarifying the expected impacts for the aviation sector. Risk assessment is a key step for airport adaptation. Adaption actions to address most key risks can be identified, though some, such as building resilience to cross-winds at an airport, may be more challenging to address, whilst low-regrets actions and softer measures such as training can be efficient and cost-effective. 7 Burbidge et al. (2011) Paper on potential adaptation needs of air traffic management (ATM) to climate change. Three key potential ATM climate change adaptation areas are Identified: changes in the timing and location of traffic peaks and flows; flooding risk to airports leading to runway closures; and an increase in convective activity (storminess). Some impacts will not be experienced in the short-term, but need to be considered in medium to long-term planning. 8 ButterworthHayes (2013) Review on forecasting the effects involved with climate change and aviation. Climate change resilience is now high on the political agenda for European and North American governments. 9 Chen & Wang (2019) Review of the severe weather vulnerability of aviation and High Speed Rail (HSR) in China. Based on data visualization and statistical analysis, the impacts of severe weather events on HSR and aviation’s on-time performance vary spatially and temporally. HSR is generally less vulnerable. Operations in the southeast region of China are affected more frequently by rain and thunderstorms, central-eastern China is more vulnerable to snowstorms. 10 Coffel & Horton (2015) Examination of climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation. Aircraft improvements may help the situation, but airports will generally need longer runways and space-constrained airports are projected to have many more weight restriction days. 11 Coffel et al. (2017) Examination of the impacts of rising temperature on aircraft take-off performance. Medium/long-range aircraft and airports with short runways on high elevations are the most affected by rising temperatures. 12 Cooper et al. (2018) Examination of the relationship between climate change and volcanism. Isostatic unloading of glaciers will trigger more volcanic activit y, leading to interruptions in aviation (e.g. from ash cloud). 13 Debortoli et al. (2019) Analysis of the climate change vulnerability of Arctic aviation and marine transportation. A climate change vulnerability index is developed using aviation and marine sectors to assess both biophysical and social components. Adaptation is needed to ensure a service to communities that are dependent on aircraft services. 14 Eijgelaar et al. (2010) Exploration of the paradox of climate ambassadorship and ‘last chance tourism’. Operators increasingly take tourists to destinations threatened by climate change, with Antarctica and other polar regions as favourites and cruise ship and aircraft as main transport modes. A survey found no evidence for the 5 n Paper Study background Primary outcomes hypothesis that the trips develop greater environmental awareness, change attitudes or encourage more sustainable future travel choices. 15 Gray (2008) Think-piece in response to previous article on aviation and climate from a meteorology perspective. Climate change impacts of airports at very low elevation are studied. Changes in humidity and flood patterns will affect low lying airports and aircraft performance. 16 Gultepe et al. (2019) Review of high impact weather for aviation meteorology. Even short duration weather extremes affect the take-off performance of aircraft. Improvements are needed to the measurement of weather and modelling approaches associated with aviation forecasting. 17 Hane (2016) C omment on paper 10, climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation. Climate change and extreme temperature may have less economic impact than previously assessed. 18 Hayhoe et al. (2009) Modelling paper of the climate change impacts on urban energy and infrastructure: A Chicago case study. A City of Chicago modelling framework enables quantitative estimates of the economic impacts of climate change. It is determined that energy and infrastructure impacts, including airport operations, and covering both costs and savings, are driven primarily by increases in mean annual temperature and secondarily by increases in the frequency of extreme-heat events and decreases in cold days. Even partial success at reducing emissions could produce a disproportionately large reduction in economic costs. 19 Hepburn & Muller (2010) Article proposing an adaptation levy. Given the nature and scale of the aviation greenhouse gas emissions challenge, the paper outlines a proposal for an International Air Travel Adaptation Levy (IATAL) to support developing countries. 20 Hu et al. (2016) Examination of the spatial exposure of Chinese system infrastructure to flooding and drought hazards. Infrastructure exposure across energy, transport, and waste sectors is considered. Regions identified in China to be particularly affected by flooding covers around 103 million infrastructure users. Sub-sectors including rail, aviation, shipping, electricity and waste water will be particularly affected. 21 Jenamani et al. (2009) Assessment of the impact of thunderstorms and squalls at New Delhi airport on the environment. Data between 1995-2005 on thunderstorms and squalls is analysed, with weather statistics generated (temperature, wind speed, humidity & sea level pressure). Overall, thunderstorms have increased 12% since 1950-1980, with a particularly high increase in June (51%) and May (26%). 22 Kim et al. (2016) North Atlantic oscillation impacts on transatlantic flight routes and clean-air turbulence. The wind-optimal routes that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modelled between New York and London. Consequently, eastbound wind-optimal routes are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones. 23 Kreuz et al. (2012) Report on consequences of extreme weather on European transportation networks. Road traffic, freight transport on transport corridors and passenger flows in large cities are particularly affected by delays. Aviation will suffer from extreme weather events in the future due to increased wind gusts and to free capacity currently used as a buffer to weather events being occupied by additional flights. 24 Lee et al. (2019) Examination of the wind shear increase in the North Atlantic upper-level jet stream. Wind shear on the North Atlantic upper-level jet stream increased by 15% between 1979-2017. Results indicate climate change may be having a larger impact on the North Atlantic jet stream than previously thought. The effects of climate change and variability on the upper-level jet stream are being partly obscured by the traditional focus on wind speed rather than wind shear. 25 Lopez (2016) Methodology trialled to assess climate change vulnerability of airports in France. A vulnerability assessment method is presented, based on a climate change scenario that French airports might face by the year 2100. A risk matrix identifies strengths and weaknesses of the aerodrome. Airport operators can identify where to focus their effort in order to increase their resilience. 26 Mäkelä et al (2013) Examination of the impact of cold-season thunderstorms in Finland on aviation safety. Cold-season thunderstorms are rare events, which increase their threat to aviation safety; both pilots and forecasters can be surprised when they occur. Furthermore, especially at high latitudes, these thunderstorms occur often in the dark, which adds to their physiological effect on the pilots. Some of the forecasting tools used in the warm season can also be used in the cold season. 27 Moriarty & Honnery (2004) Exploration of transport technology and travel volumes out to the year 2050, mainly in industrialised countries. Major changes in transport technology and fuels are expected, in response to perceived constraints such as oil depletion and global warming. The inevitable uncertainty in long-term forecasting will be exacerbated by these constraints. A larger role for government is to reduce uncertainty and provide a more sustainable transport system. 6 n Paper Study background Primary outcomes 28 Nemeth et al. (2018) Analysis of the influence of climate change on European aviation. The influence of climate change on selected aircraft types and consequently air traffic flow management, environment, fuel consumption, emissions, delays and aviation safety. In particular, changes in temperatures and flight altitudes leads to longer flight times and increased emissions 29 Neumann et al. (2015) Examination of climate change risks to US infrastructure: roads, bridges, coastal development and urban drainage. From model outputs, the impacts of climate change in this sector could be large as sea-level rises, temperature increases, and precipitation patterns become more extreme and affect the sustainability of long-lived infrastructure. Economic impacts can be reduced by proactive and costeffective adaptation measures. 30 Palin et al. (2016) Examination of seasonal forecast of Winter disruption to the UK transport system. Relationships examined between the observed and forecast North Atlantic Oscillation and a variety of UK winter impacts on transport in the road, rail, and aviation sectors. This includes weather-related delays to flights leaving London Heathrow Airport. 31 Pejovic, Noland et al. (2009) An Impact analysis of a short closure at London Heathrow Airport. The system disruptions assessed are delays, flight rerouting or diversions to alternate airports, and flight cancellations. Estimates suggest values between €700,000 and €1,250,000 for a one-hour airport closure. Carbon costs associated with the closure could add €230,000–340,000, while external cost estimates can range up to €1,400,000. 32 Pejovic, Williams et al. (2009) Examination of factors affecting the frequency and severity of airport weather delays. A climate model has been developed for London Heathrow Airport over up to the year 2050. It demonstrates that extreme weather (thunderstorm, snow & fog) increase the chance of weather-related delay by more than 25%, and an increase in wind speed of 1 knot above the mean increases the probability of delay by 8%. 33 Pentelow & Scott (2011) An impact analysis of international climate policies on the Caribbean tourism industry. Results from a tourism arrivals model indicate that under current climate policy proposals, reductions in tourist arrivals from major European and North American markets would be negligible, given ‘business as usual’ growth projections. Only the most stringent policy scenario shows a significant decrease in tourist arrivals. An adaptation policy assessed could provide economic benefits to the Caribbean region. 34 Prussi & Lonza (2018) A comparison of emission profiles on European aviation and High Speed Rail (HSR) routes. The study assessed the environmental impact of modal substitution of air transport with HSR, based on seven routes in the EU. The results indicate the advantage of HSR in terms of direct carbon emissions per passenger km. Compared to a base-level scenario of an annual passenger increment of 3.5%, a HSR substitution of around a quarter of passengers is estimated to generate greenhouse gas emission savings of around 22%. 35 Pümpel (2016) A review of regulatory responses to the impacts of intensifying weather events on aviation safety. Climate change is likely to lead to a higher incidence of extreme weather events and may change the regional distribution of those events. Aviation regulators may wish to take action to reduce exposure to extreme weather events, and to provide robust safety procedures when such exposures occur. 36 Ren et al. (2019) An I mpacts study of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads. C limate models are used to examine the impacts of high temperatures on aircraft maximum take-off weight (MTOW) and payload. The most extreme changes are at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. This is a 5% decrease in MTOW, or a reduction in payload of between 8.5% and 19% (aircraft dependent). The global average change is about 1%. 37 Scott et al. (2016) A report on the Paris Climate Change Agreement and its implications for tourism. A n overview of the key provisions of the Paris A greement that are most relevant to tourism shows: much strengthened and world-wide participation in greenhouse gas emission reduction ambitions, an enduring framework for increased ambitions over time, improved transparency in emissions reporting and a greater emphasis on climate risk management through adaptation. International air travel is discussed, and aviation industry ambitions are broadly aligned with those in the tourism sector. 38 Storer et al. (2017) A study on the global response to clear-air turbulence caused by climate change. Climate model simulations over 2050-2080 are used study the impact that climate change could have on global clear-air turbulence, one of the largest causes of weather-related aviation incidents. Large relative increases in clearair turbulence are especially found in the midlatitudes in both hemispheres, with some regions experiencing several hundred per cent more turbulence. The largest increases are also experienced in the busiest international airspace. 39 Storer , Gill et al. (2019) A m odel ling study to better predict aviation turbulence. This study applies multi - model ensemble forecasting to aviation turbulence for the first time. A 12 month global trial yields an improvement in forecast 7 n Paper Study background Primary outcomes value at low cost/loss ratios. Using a multi-model approach is an effective way to improve the forecast skill and provide pilots and flight planners with more information about forecast confidence, allowing for more informed decisions about required actions such as diverting around turbulence or requiring passengers and crew to fasten their seatbelts. 40 Storer, Williams et al. (2019) A review of the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change and current forecasting methods. Turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important. Current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. 41 Suhrbier (2008) Impact study of climate change and variability on transport long-range planning and investment. US Gulf Coast (Alabama to Texas) case study examines average and extreme temperatures and precipitation, along with changes in sea level, land subsidence, and the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. Transport planners are shown to have little or no understanding of the complex climate change issues and need to be increasingly multimodal and collaborative. 42 Thompson (2016) An overview of climate impacts on the commercial air transport industry. Sub-sectors such as airports, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, airspace safety and navigation organizations will encounter different climate change effects. Adaptation planning is perhaps most advanced for airports located in coastal regions and concentrates on storm-water management and inundation prevention. Other climate effects on aircraft performance and flight/passenger safety are being investigated but are not yet part of the adaptation-planning landscape. 43 Vorster et al. (2013) Development of 2050 scenarios for long-haul tourism under the evolving climate change regime. Three meta - level scenarios are developed and described. Two undesirable scenarios are labelled “grim reaper” & “fallen angel”. In contrast, the desired “green lantern” scenario represents a future where long-haul tourist destinations heed early warning signals and contribute towards realising the desired future. Scenarios show risks decrease if aviation-based tourism hedges against risks, and seizes new opportunities 44 Williams (2016) A letter on transatlantic flight times and climate change. Changes in transatlantic flights between London and New York are examined when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. A modelled strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons. The extrapolation of results to all transatlantic traffic, assuming no future growth, suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an extra 2,000 hours each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US$ 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide. 45 Yair (2018) A review of lightning hazards to human societies in a changing climate. Reviews trends to assess vulnerability to future lightning activity in different scenarios. Although it is hard to precisely predict what future lightning distributions will look like, the combination of large metropolitan areas, increased population and a warmer climate almost guarantee an intensification of the human exposure to lightning hazard. Aviation will be increasingly affected by thunderstorms, lightning and related weather phenomena, such as hail, heavy rain, turbulence and downbursts. 46 Zhou et al. (2018) An examination of decreased take-off performance of aircraft due to climate change. The effects of climate change on the take-off performance of aircraft, including take-off distance and climb rate, are examined and quantified. Changes of temperature and pressure altitude under climate change will lead to longer take-off distances and lower climb rates. For example, the Boeing 737-800 aircraft results show it will require additional 3.5–168.7 metres takeoff distance in future summers. The structure of the discussion of review findings has a logical flow. Initially there is a summary of the sample and paper methodology (Section 3.1), before presenting adaptation as a concept for aviation and climate change (Section 3.2). Sections 3.3 to 3.5 align with the first aim, to explicate significant issues affecting aviation in a changing climate. Section 3.3 covers studies that examine aviation in the wider context of transport and infrastructure. Sections 3.4 and 3.5 are methodological in nature, covering the literature with policy and modelling approaches respectively. The final discussion section (Section 3.6) aligns with the second aim, discussing the aviation industry responses on climate change and adaptation. 8 3. Discussion of the review findings 3.1 Summary of the sample and methodologies The 46 references date from 2004 onwards and, as expected, increase in annual numbers until the search in October 2019. Most of the references are either review-based or have a quantitative modelling approach. One concern expressed in the literature is that research tends to focus more on developed than developing countries (Becken, 2013), which is also reflected within the 46 references. Without making a precise definition of a developing country, we note that most references focused on developed countries in North America and Europe. The four case study references outside these areas are studies on: tourism in Caribbean island states (Pentelow and Scott, 2011), the impact of weather at New Delhi airport (Jenamani et al., 2009), the exposure of Chinese infrastructure to flooding and drought (Hu et al., 2016) and the weather vulnerability of aviation and High Speed Rail in China (Chen and Wang, 2019). Much of the data incorporated in the references is secondary in nature. However, one paper reports a survey to determine the level of environmental awareness amongst cruise passengers (Eijgelaar et al., 2010). Another study interviews tourists (Buckley, 2011) to determine attitudes towards slow travel for leisure travel short breaks. The review-based studies include book chapters (e.g. Bows et al., 2008) or academic journal articles (e.g. Becken, 2013). Many of the references consider climate change and aviation adaptation from a tourism perspective, either developing a review across the whole discipline (e.g. Becken, 2013), or a tourism-focused case study, such as the paper by Pentelow and Scott (2011) on some of the Caribbean island states. A more recent stream of literature focuses on meteorological changes and how aviation should adapt to those (e.g. Gultepe et al., 2019). 3.2 Adaptation as a climate change concept for aviation In 2016, an international agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions was brokered by the UN in Paris. This regulatory instrument was originally agreed by 196 countries at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Scott et al., 2016). As described by Scott et al. (2016), the Paris Agreement provides a significant and much enhanced emphasis on adaptation and building climate resilience, in acknowledgement of the consequences of climate change which had become unavoidable. As reported within the sample publications, the adaptation concept for aviation can be categorized into three elements. Firstly, air travel faces climate change disruptions at airports due to greater and more frequent temperature extremes and changes in precipitation and wind, as well as rising sea levels (Burbidge, 2018; Chen and Wang, 2019; Yair, 2018). Secondly, disruptions occur in the air due to changing atmospheric patterns and less predictable extreme weather events (Cooper et al., 2018; Lee et al., 2019; Storer et al., 2019). Thirdly, there are disruptions from changing patterns in passenger demand as holiday destinations are affected by climate impacts which can make them less attractive and sometimes inaccessible (Debortoli et al., 2019; Hu et al., 2016). Burbidge (2018) discussed widely the impacts of climate change on various aviation industry stakeholders and shows new pathways towards adaptation and climate change resilience. Based on the outcomes of a EUROCONTROL (European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation) workshop, Burbidge (2018) presented four key priorities for taking action: 1) understanding the problem, 2) assessing the problem, 3) actions to adapt and 4) communication and collaboration. 3.3 References linking transport and infrastructure to climate change 15 In terms of the non-airport industry stakeholders within the literature, and as shown in Table 2, airlines are only generically stated. It is typically harder for researchers to access data from airlines, given business sensitivities, but it is also a reflection that climate change adaptation measures are more urgently required at airports than airlines. A wide range of other aviation industry stakeholders are stated in the references, including air traffic management organisations, various policymaking and regulatory bodies, and wider transport planning and infrastructure departments. 4. Conclusions Literature linking aviation and climate change is expanding as a response to the increasing occurrence and prominence of climate change impacts. While the aviation sector has long been referenced as contributing to the causes of climate change, the need for aviation to adapt to the consequences of climate change has not been as well researched or considered by the industry. The literature on climate change and adaptation in aviation typically covers divergent approaches for social and physical issues. The social literature undertakes reviews of literature and policy-making, and physical research focuses more on quantitative modelling of aviation and weather data. Of the disciplines that align with aviation, tourism generates the most references linking aviation and climate change adaptation. Understanding climate change adaptation options for aviation faces methodological challenges associated with uncertainty in passenger behavior, policy constraints and technological innovation as well as uncertainty in the physical evolution of climate impacts. Research is hampered by the need for access to both aviation and weather data, and challenges from the multidisciplinary nature of the approaches. The various international case studies offered a range of initial findings. One pertinent theme is the global reach but spatial context, such that aviation is locally situated in airports, represents regional interests though national airlines and crosses geopolitical boundaries in its operations. These extensive networks of responsibility and interest involve all levels of governance from city planning to the International Civil Aviation Organization, and a range of actors from individual passengers to multinational corporations and institutions. Climate change impacts have policy implications for many aviation stakeholders. As in other sectors, many players within the aviation industry do not have the funding or are too short-term focused in their business, to invest in longer-term adaptation planning processes. Aviation industry stakeholders represented within the climate change adaptation literature tend to be the larger airports within the developed world. There is an increasing need for wider engagement within the aviation industry to develop and implement adaptation plans to anticipate and manage climate change risks. Social justice implications of aviation-related climate change policies will become more visible and urgent with continued impacts. Much of the research identified has been engineering and data driven, and so there is scope for further research using more qualitative approaches from the social and behavioral sciences. As the growth in climate change adaptation literature for aviation shows, the concepts of climate change mitigation and adaptation are being reframed for the industry. Further research should also review, benchmark and provide best practice practical recommendations for the implementation of adaptation plans within the aviation industry. 16 References Andres, L., Padilla, E. (2018). Driving factors of GHG emissions in the EU transport activity. Transport Policy, 61, 60-74. Banister, D. (2019). 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